tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50871346252616129632024-03-23T19:12:35.844+00:00An Eye On...An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-26555760503887510872024-03-12T10:10:00.004+00:002024-03-12T15:32:56.324+00:002024 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE GENERAL ELECTION<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Portugal held a <span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;">Snap legislative election on 10 March 2024 to elect members of the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assembly_of_the_Republic_(Portugal)" style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word;" title="Assembly of the Republic (Portugal)"><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>Assembly of the Republic</b></span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;"> to the 16th Legislature of Portugal. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;">All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were up for election.<br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;">The last elections were held in 2022 and were won with an outright majority by the PS socialists for their third time however they have been mired in scandal up to and including anti-corruption raids on the Prime Minister's own home.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;"><br /><br />Portugal uses a D'Hondt method of PR, based on 20 districts with each district allocated a number of seats based on it's population size. 4 of the seats represent overseas territories of Azores, Madeira etc<br /><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;">The election saw the right </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Alliance_(Portugal,_2024)" style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word;" title="Democratic Alliance (Portugal, 2024)"><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>Democratic Alliance</b></span></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;"> (PSD) </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(equivalent to UK's Tories)</i></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;"> claim a narrow victory over the left </span><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><u><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Party_(Portugal)">Socialists</a></u></span></b><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #202122;"><u><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Party_(Portugal)"> </a></u>(PS) </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(equivalent to UK's Labour)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;">. The far-right party </span></span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chega_(political_party)">Chega!</a></b></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;"> (CH) </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(more extreme than UK's BNP/NF)</span></i> <span style="color: #202122;">saw large gains nearly tripling its vote share and winning 48 seats in Parliament. It marked the best result for the party since its foundation in 2019.<br /></span><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsxm7bBhu4BkURsgPUflr903N21RInRkeZRB2eUSUVcmaTgzH_Qv1MN8UJmtG3XpYohPtPahs7lNpHf1avCuTsZ1ZsBkIBIQpFarwEDVHhSX085GM5LvPKGfBfqwvW900wAYB0PYX2ituIyqzrNGLfNS04lmQ_5ZSonmijazRrpMyJNam7MgP5uuILzKWu/s335/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="314" data-original-width="335" height="363" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsxm7bBhu4BkURsgPUflr903N21RInRkeZRB2eUSUVcmaTgzH_Qv1MN8UJmtG3XpYohPtPahs7lNpHf1avCuTsZ1ZsBkIBIQpFarwEDVHhSX085GM5LvPKGfBfqwvW900wAYB0PYX2ituIyqzrNGLfNS04lmQ_5ZSonmijazRrpMyJNam7MgP5uuILzKWu/w388-h363/Untitled.png" width="388" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSC3EhIL9gkMCfog8Z_8oT3hniShl8xPQw6Ao7yzl4fFtbjqUL6LpnRY6e99Zuu6gmf_odwOClCwuRmpom8Q-Uk96y_USxKAFEWSyZLcslO6qLtyUA5834xE-ShR16dJylmOGscN177aRz2RhLeixZkBhm79D0U0E1X4Z_38T1oCaL2s64wSqA5dPbiTuF/s363/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="189" data-original-width="363" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSC3EhIL9gkMCfog8Z_8oT3hniShl8xPQw6Ao7yzl4fFtbjqUL6LpnRY6e99Zuu6gmf_odwOClCwuRmpom8Q-Uk96y_USxKAFEWSyZLcslO6qLtyUA5834xE-ShR16dJylmOGscN177aRz2RhLeixZkBhm79D0U0E1X4Z_38T1oCaL2s64wSqA5dPbiTuF/w421-h220/Untitled.png" width="421" /></a><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Plus 4 overseas MPs making 230 in total) </span></b></div><br /><span style="color: #202122;">A total of 20 seprate parties stood, many in 'common ground' coalitions </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(for example the winning Democratic Alliance consisted of three parties working with each other. Quite common in PR-type elections throughout europe)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;">.</span><br /><br /><span style="color: #202122;">The future looks highly unstable for Portugal as the election produced no clear winner and Chega! taking such a large shre in third place are being shunned by both the main parties, meaning every decision is going to require an immense amount of compromise between left & right. In all probability the Portuguese will be heading back to the polls before the year is out.</span><br /><br /></span><br /><br /><br /><br /></span></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-9917164845503354832024-03-10T12:01:00.032+00:002024-03-20T14:53:36.650+00:00IRISH CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM<p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Republic of Ireland held two referenda on Friday March 8th (International Womens Day) to amend two parts of their Consittution (it has to be done by referendum).<br /></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The two proposals were (and all this appeared on the Ballot papers and accompanying notes):-</span></div><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><u>THE FAMILY AMENDMENT </u></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><u>(white notes & ballot paper)</u></b></div></span></div><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #212529; font-family: arial;">In Article 41.1.1° “The State recognises the Family as the natural primary and fundamental unit group of Society, and as a moral institution possessing inalienable and imprescriptible rights, antecedent and superior to all positive law.”</span></div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In Article 41.3.1° “The State pledges itself to guard with special care the institution of Marriage, on which the Family is founded, and to protect it against attack.”</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Proposal</span></span></div><p></p><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Constitution currently recognises the centrality of the family unit in society and protects the Family founded on marriage.</span></div></div><p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; width: 642px;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In this amendment there is one vote for two proposed changes. The Proposal involves the insertion of additional text to Article 41.1.1° and the deletion of text in Article 41.3.1°. These proposed changes are shown below:</span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Proposed to change Article 41.3.1°<span style="font-weight: bolder;"> </span>by deleting text shown with line through it:<br /></span></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">“The State pledges itself to guard with special care the institution of Marriage, <s style="box-sizing: border-box;">on which the Family is founded,</s> and to protect it against attack.</span></span></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Proposed to change Article 41.1.1° text in bold to:<span style="font-weight: bolder;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Article 41.1.1° “The State recognises the Family<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;">, whether founded on marriage or on other durable relationships,</span> as the natural primary and fundamental unit group of </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial;">Society, and as a moral institution possessing inalienable and imprescriptible rights, antecedent and s</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial;">uperior to all positive law.”</span></div></div></div><div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: center; width: 642px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>(There then follows an extremely long-winded and tiresome explanation of the legal impacts of a Yes vote or a No vote)</i></span></div><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-size: 17px; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJA6EVXxc2HM5aT9r0tqpm1UMnKVeRZC1KWrIRjW-AkrosLQNs83QQoimpFkAqQzULtyF1B0rxclpCuI2zZ5v500HQ6Bfm2OH0UKdiYDSplLGQu0GuRRsVIN2A2Ku5DbQpcwC_-jclr4ehLKpfqRG7fxnkeaB01FMl61a8X1vZz3m-QmsnNJmW7ow7TCI9" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1051" data-original-width="1536" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJA6EVXxc2HM5aT9r0tqpm1UMnKVeRZC1KWrIRjW-AkrosLQNs83QQoimpFkAqQzULtyF1B0rxclpCuI2zZ5v500HQ6Bfm2OH0UKdiYDSplLGQu0GuRRsVIN2A2Ku5DbQpcwC_-jclr4ehLKpfqRG7fxnkeaB01FMl61a8X1vZz3m-QmsnNJmW7ow7TCI9" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /></span><p></p><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proxima-nova, sans-serif; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px 0px 15px; text-align: center; word-break: break-word;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;"><u>THE CARE AMENDMENT<br />(green notes & ballot paper)</u></span></div><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; font-family: proxima-nova, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;">Article 41.2.1° “In particular, the State recognises that by her life within the home, woman gives to the State a support without which the common good cannot be achieved.”</div><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; font-family: proxima-nova, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;">Article 41.2.2° “The State shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home.”</div><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; font-family: proxima-nova, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;">The Constitution currently, by Article 41.2, refers to the importance to the common good of the life of women within the home and that the State should endeavour to ensure that mothers should not have to go out to work to the neglect of their “duties in the home”.</div><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bolder;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Proposal</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #212529; font-family: proxima-nova, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; text-align: left; width: 642px;">In this amendment there is one vote for two proposed changes. The proposal involves deleting Article 41.2.1° and Article 41.2.2° and inserting a new Article 42B, as shown below:</div><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 0px; min-width: unset; position: relative; width: 642px;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="proxima-nova, sans-serif" style="color: #212529;"><span style="font-family: arial;">“The State recognises that the provision of care, by members of a family to one another by reason of the bonds that exist among them, gives to Society a support without which the common good cannot be achieved, and shall strive to support such provision.</span>”</span></div><br /><p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span face="proxima-nova, sans-serif" style="color: #212529;"><i>(There then follows an extremely long-winded and tiresome explanation of the legal impacts of a Yes vote or a No Vote)</i></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2sQ7LHU24KpeG4oFR4V28iIBvS4h6F-Uoamf5WzJ9KKgTAoWINdFcHU3qzlQfXSAu_lDN5KUy0oUnP9hg1u3nMJXCyaiEYBugd5UodP2CIETf9gIvnzfatAk6UaTxDE5DEpIs9wrN1YNyLhKkHVBC9-hu6bXXRDworxcQV82ANYueZSwzzWsTyhjBjXrJ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1051" data-original-width="1536" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2sQ7LHU24KpeG4oFR4V28iIBvS4h6F-Uoamf5WzJ9KKgTAoWINdFcHU3qzlQfXSAu_lDN5KUy0oUnP9hg1u3nMJXCyaiEYBugd5UodP2CIETf9gIvnzfatAk6UaTxDE5DEpIs9wrN1YNyLhKkHVBC9-hu6bXXRDworxcQV82ANYueZSwzzWsTyhjBjXrJ" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /></div><span><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">Ireland - like Wales, is a bi-lingual country so everything was repeated in Gaelic as well for good measure.<br /><br />All the main parties supported YES/YES, which on the face of it seems fair enough and a 'nailed-on' dead cert - it is after all, when all said and done merely a tidying-up exercise to get the Constitution to reflect 21st Century reality. However the turn-out was shockingly poor for such a Consitutional matter, the campaigning by the main parties was lack-lustre and generally dreadful as they believed it was a foregone conclusion they'd win, and the wording of the questions and the explanations was way too complicated. <br /><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="font-family: arial;">3.5m people were registered to vote however most couldn't be bothered with it in the main because it was too difficult to understand or it didn't concern or affect them in their daily lives whether it changed or not. The results were a shock overwhelming NO/NO with the politicians immediately all blaming each other and blaming the voters. </span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212;"><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQtQnYco80PEx7-RN19EDMzUMneURD0yJIbaUW4lrIWTvyapg_mIHH-UbKwNwhDgvuGktFRtCzgKeKP_Q7GcSIvKHTtuGIGmWYVK6TIZU_ZbhW1ChB0d-xzEgLhfj4zDval6hZsbBTDNratath2UwmkBSDenJSz6M6PAVjLTQ6RaLx7TQAYm3FGtcSBcBS/s973/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="335" data-original-width="973" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQtQnYco80PEx7-RN19EDMzUMneURD0yJIbaUW4lrIWTvyapg_mIHH-UbKwNwhDgvuGktFRtCzgKeKP_Q7GcSIvKHTtuGIGmWYVK6TIZU_ZbhW1ChB0d-xzEgLhfj4zDval6hZsbBTDNratath2UwmkBSDenJSz6M6PAVjLTQ6RaLx7TQAYm3FGtcSBcBS/w628-h215/Untitled.png" width="628" /></a></div><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Turn-out was 44.4% ave. (not everyone who voted, voted in both)<br />These were the worst and third worst turn-outs of any referenda in Irish history.</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2V6R1shlJrfoIgsaUQJ0gmv-s6wzg-OeP_-KkMdw6EJA-lHLVIWXYIRrbEyZxrNPIaXhiOgfc-JyxgFxvZ66Oz9GHAu1IEYhi9MH_qUvK2Cbiierw0kf4vwLdz-wOYbVfMA2vekYNzTAksoDo_2sGh2mgM_NwXXZS9V3K7ENd_SaKnblyF5J_2KkzC3cj/s1477/Both-results.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1426" data-original-width="1477" height="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2V6R1shlJrfoIgsaUQJ0gmv-s6wzg-OeP_-KkMdw6EJA-lHLVIWXYIRrbEyZxrNPIaXhiOgfc-JyxgFxvZ66Oz9GHAu1IEYhi9MH_qUvK2Cbiierw0kf4vwLdz-wOYbVfMA2vekYNzTAksoDo_2sGh2mgM_NwXXZS9V3K7ENd_SaKnblyF5J_2KkzC3cj/w600-h580/Both-results.png" width="600" /></a></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212;"><br /></span></span></div><br /></span></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">The Irish Labour Party surpassed themselves in summary and managed to use the word 'Government' five times in just one sentence - </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"> "</span></span><span style="background-color: white; text-align: center;"><span><i style="color: #333333;">It was a very lacklustre </i><u style="color: #333333; font-style: italic;">Government</u><i style="color: #333333;"> campaign with very little evidence of canvassing from </i><u style="color: #333333; font-style: italic;">Government</u><i style="color: #333333;"> members, </i><u style="color: #333333; font-style: italic;">Government</u><i style="color: #333333;"> TDs and Senators and very few voices from </i><u style="color: #333333; font-style: italic;">Government</u><i style="color: #333333;"> on the airwaves supporting their call for Yes-Yes, and I think that is where </i><u style="color: #333333; font-style: italic;">Government</u><i style="color: #333333;"> failed" . </i><span>Truly</span><i style="color: #333333;"> o</i>utstanding.<i style="color: #333333;"> </i></span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"> <br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="color: #121212;"><br />Sinn Fein have already pledged - in that time-honoured Irish tradition, to run the referenda again until they get the result they want.</span><br /><br /><b style="color: #121212;"><u><br />AFTERMATH<br /><br /></u></b><span style="color: #121212;">If you word something poorly or make it way to complicated to be understood in mere seconds, over issues the parts of the electorate at large has very very deep reservations about, then the electorate will either not bother with it or vote against it. But they certainly will not accept it.<br /><br />The 'Family Amendment' </span><span style="color: #111111; font-variant-ligatures: normal;">was seen by a highly sceptical electorate as a move away from the heterosexual nuclear family towards the vacuous '</span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #111111; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: 0px;">durable relationship'</span><span style="color: #111111; font-variant-ligatures: normal;">, with the added worry that immigrants could use the change to bring in just about anybody, claiming there was some form of relationship between them. Given the major social problems on-going at street-level in Ireland over immigration, this just added fuel to the fire.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-variant-ligatures: normal;">The ‘</span><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; transition-duration: 0.1s; transition-property: all; transition-timing-function: ease-in-out;">The Care Amendment</span><span style="font-variant-ligatures: normal;">‘ was presented as rejecting the old-fashioned thinking of a woman’s place being in the home, but widely seen, again by a highly sceptical electorate <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(who are sick and tired of the Liberal-Left's obsession with Gender Politics and associated drivel and their attempts at forcing it's acceptance on a largely-hostile or disinterested people)</i></span> as rejecting motherhood altogether, and opening the door to other interpretations of ‘woman’ and it's meaning, interpretation and usage.</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: normal;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="color: #121212;">This will place a significant strain on an already beleaguered Leo Varadkar-led Coalition government as this was his idea and he supported it and campaigned for it.</span></span></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: normal;"><span style="font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;"><span style="color: #121212;"><br /></span><span style="color: red;"><b><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="text-decoration-line: underline;">*****UPDATE****</span></b></div><br />20 March 2024. Leo Varadkar, the Irish </b></span></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: red;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-weight: bold;">Taoiseach - Ireland's version of the Prime Minister, announced his resignation and will step down as soon as a replacement is announced. Ireland is currently ruled by an extraordinarily fragile Coalition and unless the Coalition can come up with a candidate acceptable to all coalition members, the end result may be an early General Election; something Sinn Fein and other parties are already demanding.<br /></span><br /><b>An early General Election would cause significant worry for whoever is in power in Westminster as currently Sinn Fein have a clear lead over the other two main parties and on current polling, would be able to cobble together a like-minded Coalition with a working majority. Coupled wiith Sinn Fein now being 'top dog' in the north, calls for a Border Poll from Sinn Fein in such a scenario would increase greatly.</b><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='399' height='331' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dxGkLPM0tuk-1QVQrR_xBccO0mFLq4kMFAp3GF2PZvPy8uHxqVkAmzVdnv2ae9_tJ7l_-HzO5htXcQB5iTfUA' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div><br /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="font-size: 16.7px; font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div></span></span></div><p></p>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-24887228022205144132024-03-04T18:53:00.011+00:002024-03-05T19:05:07.594+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR FEBRUARY 2024<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ9lvzuWYEguHj3Wzp8-F-Vylh5GKwdMUYgfwOal2RAdsW33uqQr6M4Ncyqnx1A97ziJhxsE_QbG1wFqqvY2aA5iGKO4IuiecR8O5eX_FAmIR-PzqlmOxi2UoHfycoBPHr1e6KOEDm1v_ElWXa-6pggHslKTFqsVmHVcccgFGC8SNtuU7FO4kcRh8bCXaR/s231/feb.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="231" data-original-width="214" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ9lvzuWYEguHj3Wzp8-F-Vylh5GKwdMUYgfwOal2RAdsW33uqQr6M4Ncyqnx1A97ziJhxsE_QbG1wFqqvY2aA5iGKO4IuiecR8O5eX_FAmIR-PzqlmOxi2UoHfycoBPHr1e6KOEDm1v_ElWXa-6pggHslKTFqsVmHVcccgFGC8SNtuU7FO4kcRh8bCXaR/s1600/feb.png" width="214" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDXoeNWigBAwvIMTy-adCBnEYtB0AxaKyozhecOISkV4WYDTubnF4O5F3AKGOmTGd4tszQJz8CG2xxcGNs3tyyAOh__Ir2OBjqiaxYFtVgmeJDLKAqdq9ZFHjm0L6j9lMClLLQdqAmepKa8M6LkOsbb9ZFTxm9SBgdhtUkMzcbTHOByqaiYMhgpIKHK_OM/s230/2024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="230" data-original-width="207" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDXoeNWigBAwvIMTy-adCBnEYtB0AxaKyozhecOISkV4WYDTubnF4O5F3AKGOmTGd4tszQJz8CG2xxcGNs3tyyAOh__Ir2OBjqiaxYFtVgmeJDLKAqdq9ZFHjm0L6j9lMClLLQdqAmepKa8M6LkOsbb9ZFTxm9SBgdhtUkMzcbTHOByqaiYMhgpIKHK_OM/s1600/2024.png" width="207" /></a></div><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" width="320" /></a></div></div><br /><p></p><p><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>FEBRUARY</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 36 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 25.1</span> </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)<br /></span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 43.5% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.8) <br /></span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 9.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3</span></i></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">) <br /></span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 6.0% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5) </span></i></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 10.1% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.8)</span></i></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 5.5% </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(-1.8)</i></span></div><div><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)</span></i></div><p></p><p></p><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 21-29%, Labour between 40-48</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%, Reform between 7-14%</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 7-11</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 36 polls</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> and on 2 occasions showed a 26% lead </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;">(YouGov, 20-21Feb & 28-29 Feb)</i>.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 11-26%. Of note is that this is the first month that Reform have out-polled the LDems and in one poll were were just 6% behind the Tories <i><span style="color: #444444;">(YouGov, 28-29 Feb)</span>.</i></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">If a General Election were held on these <b>February</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> figures</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> </i></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">and <u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html">using the new boundaries</a></b></span></u>, it would result in a Parliament of<b>*</b> :- </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">C109 </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-70)</span><span>, </span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">L459 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+59)</span></i>, </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LD40 </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+2)</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">, </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">SNP20 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+4)</span></i>, PC4 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2)</span></i>, G2 (-<i><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i>, NI18, Speaker</span><b style="background-color: white;"> </b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">1</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">with Labour having a majority of 190. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 195.). </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">You will not that the polls have only showed minior changes to last mont, but in our constituency-based first-past-the-post system, just minor changes result in quite large shifts in the number of seats a party gains or loses.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>(<b>*</b><span style="color: #444444;"><i>F</i></span></span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">igures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction)</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">.</span></div><div><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></u></b></div><div><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></u></b></div><div><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparisons</span></u></b></div><p><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: </span><br /></p><div><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(256 polls)<br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Polling figures for 2022 </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)<br /></i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Polling figures for 2023 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><i>(367 polls)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14</span><span style="background-color: white;">%<br /><br /><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Polling figures for 2024 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(66 polls)</span></i></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Con 25.6%, Lab 42.6%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.8%, Rfm 9.7%, Oth 6.4%<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Lab lead over Con 2024: 17.01</span><span>%<br /><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Polling figures for February </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(36 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Con 25.1%, Lab 43.5%, LDem 9.8%, Grn 6.0%, Rfm 10.1%, Oth 5.5%<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con February: 18.41% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.45)</span></i></span></span></span></div><p></p><p></p><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;">The war in Gaza rumbles on as does the war in Ukraine. In the former the Israelis are griding their way to victory whilst in the latter, the month was dominated by the inevitable fall of Avdiivka; as both sides grind their way to the inevitable stalemate and the continued resistance in Congress to giving Ukraine more help.<br /><br />On the 'home front', the political situation remained largely unchanged until right at the end when that old war-horse 'Gorgeous' George Galloway convincingly won the seat of Rochdale by a country mile, representing his <span><a href="https://workerspartybritain.org/manifesto-britain-deserves-better/" style="color: #2b00fe; font-weight: bold; text-decoration-line: underline;">Workers Party of Britain (WPB)</a> - a party that is a strange kettle of fish to say the least. Situated well to the left of Starmer's Labour whilst at the same time being more UK-nationalist than the BNP whilst at the same time some how being an internationalist. It blends a mix of old-school traditional 'methodist' working class Labour values, hard left Trotskyism, trades unionism, disarmament, islamism etc etc, is anti-NATO, anti-EU and anti just about anything you can think of and keeps some very strange bed-fellows both at home and abroad. Galloway - despite being a poisonous individual with equally poisonous friends, is a ferocious campaigner, outstanding Parliamentarian, extraordinarily eloquent in speeches and is best remembered by many for his total contempt and dismissal of the US Congressional Committee to their faces <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><u><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dD48d-yjxc">live on US TV</a></u></b></span> for an hour as they attempted to question him over Iraq and oil sales and they remarked to the media after the experience that nobody had ever spoken to them in such a disresepctful and aggressive manner ever before. They didn't invite him back. An extremist, but never the less it will be good to see him in Parliament again as you can guarentee he will give anyone and everyone a very very public roasting whenever and wherever he can and already he has belittled both Starmer and Sunak on TV. I for one can't wait for his introductory speech - Sunak & Starmer will be firmly put in their place of that I have no doubts.<br /><br />Reform are now above the LDems in the averages for the month and are less than half of one percent below them in the averages for the year.<br /><br />Allegations persist that Labour used undue leverage on the Speaker to break with acceoted convention and allow an Opposition Amendment to an Opposition Day Motion regarding Gaza. The impact was in effect to allow Labour to hi-jack the SNPs Motion, thereby preventing the SNP from even voting on their own Motion while at the same time preventing Labour from disintegrating into a very public civil war. This led to a walk-out by the SNP & the Tories, bitter recriminations levelled at a very shame-faced Speaker and the man left clinging to his job by his fingernails with his credibility in tatters.<br /><br />March will see the usual speculation over the Budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(OBR)</i></span> has already made Chancellor Hunt remove and change many parts as 'unaffordable' <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(People don't seem to realise that the government can't set it's own budget anymore as it used to be able to - it has to be approved by the OBR hence why Labour's promised spending should they win the next election has been significantly scaled-back and a whole host of plans cancelled - although the government can change the rules the OBR uses if it wishes.)</span><span>. There is even speculation in the 'broadsheets' now that Sunak will call a quick 'kamikazi' general election very quickly after the budget.<br /><div><br /></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><div><b><u>SCOTLAND</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>There were three Westminster polls released during the month. <i><span style="color: #444444;">(figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</span></i>:-</div><div><br /></div><div>SNP: 36.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0)</span></i></div><div>SCon: 15.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.6)</i></span></div><div>SLab: 33.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.2)</i></span></div><div>SLD: 7.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.7)</span></i></div><div>Oth: 7.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.7)</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>There was one Holyrood poll released during the month. <i><span style="color: #444444;">(figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list</span></i>):-</div><div><br /></div><div>SNP: 35.0/27.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.5/-0.5)</span></i></div><div>SCon: 18.0/16.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+2.0/-2.0)</span></i></div><div>SLab: 33.0/29.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+1.5/-0.5)</span></i></div><div>SLD: 8.0/9.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.5/+0.5)</i></span></div><div>SGP: 3.0/9.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0/-1.0)</span></i></div><div>Oth: 3.0/10.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.5/+3.5)</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (<i><span style="color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</span></i>:-</div><div><br /></div><div>Yes: 43.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.3)</span></i>, No: 47.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+0.2)</span></i>, DK: 10.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+3.1)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Yes: 47.8%, No: 52.2%)</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SCon: 25.1%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLab: 18.6%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLDem: 9.5%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 1.8%).</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Holyrood Election 2022)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SCon: 21.9/23.5%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLab: 21.6/17.9%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLD: 6.9/5.1%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SGP: 1.3/8.1%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.6/3.4%).</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">Yes: 44.7%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">No: 55.3%</span></i></div></div></span></span></div></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="text-align: center;"><span><b>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b><br /><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westminster poll released during the month.</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(</i></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><i>figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-<br /></span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 45.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.0)</i><br /></span>Con: 22.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.0</i></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>)</i><br /></span>PC: 10.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-nc)</i><br /></span>LDem: 5.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> <i>(+1</i></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>.0)</i><br /></span>Rfm 13.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i><br /></span>Grn: 5.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i><br /></span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 0.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;">(-2.0)<span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Last polling figures are repeated just for reference </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><i style="color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from previous polling)</i>:-<br /><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Lab 37.0/34.5% </span>(-6.0/+3.5)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 22.5/18.5%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (+1.5/-0.5)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid 18.5/19.0%<span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #666666;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.5/-3.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 5.5/9.0%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> <span><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5/-1.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 5.0/6.0%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> <span><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0/nc)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 5.5/5.5%<span style="color: #444444;"> <i>(-3.5/-4.5)</i><br /></span>AWA 1.0/5.5% <span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.6/+0.5)<span> </span></i></span><i style="color: #444444;"> </i></span><br />UKIP -/1.0%<span> <i style="color: #444444;"> (nc/+1.0)</i></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div>Oth 5.0/6.0%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0/+1.0)</span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one IndyRef poll released during the month<span style="color: #444444;">. </span></span><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div></span></span><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 27%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.0)</span></i><i style="color: #444444;">, </i>No: 61% <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(+2.0),</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span>DK: 12%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><i>(+1.0)<br /></i></span><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Yes: 30.7%, No: 69.3%)</span></i></div><br /></span><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><i style="font-weight: bold;"> </i><span style="color: #444444;"><i>Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the </i></span></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>AMS system they currently use. The only countries on earth that use a similar system are </i></span><i><span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: #444444;">Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay. Proportionally, the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs. Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. </span></span><span style="color: #444444;">You really couldn't make it up.</span><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><b>NORTHERN IRELAND</b></span><br /></span></span></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Things are now far more settled politically in Northern Ireland and the Assembly is now sitting again and a devolved government is in place.</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westminster polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Last polling figures are repeated just for reference </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><i style="color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from previous polling)</i>:-</span></span></div></div></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 31.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+8.0)<br /></span></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 25.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-6.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 15.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-2.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UUP: 11.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SDLP: 9.0%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(-6.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">TUV: 5.0%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(did not stand in 2019)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> <i>(na)</i></span></span></div><div><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)</span></i></div></div><div><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></div></div></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There was one</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Assembly poll released during the month.<span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><i style="color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-</span></span><br /><br /><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 31.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 24.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-4.0)<br /></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 14.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> -2.0)<br /></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;">UUP: 10.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"> (+2.0)<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;">SDLP:</span><span style="color: black;"><span> 7</span>.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(+1.0)<br /></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;">TUV: 6.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(+2.0)<br /></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>Green:1.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i></span><br />AÚ: 2.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0)</span></i><br />S-PBP:1.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span><span><i style="color: #444444;">(nc)</i><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;">Oth: 8.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"> <i>(+2.0)</i></span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)</span></i></div></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i>(General Election 2019)</i><br /></span></span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><span><i><span>(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></i></span><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></div>(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)<br />(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)</i></span></span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div></span></span></span><div><b><br /></b></div><div><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.<br /><br />The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleagured at the moment with asylum seekers, the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches. Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 28.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.8)</i></span></div><div>FF: 17.7 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.7)</i></span></div><div>FG: 19.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.7)</i></span></div><div>GP: 3.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.2)</i></span></div><div>LP: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.5)</i></span></div><div>SD: 5.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.2)</i></span></div><div>PBP-S: 2.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.7) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 17.4% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.4)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i style="font-size: medium;">Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=</i><i>Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,</i></span></span></div><div style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= </i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)<br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="color: black;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /></b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;">GERMANY</u></span></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></u></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(Tories & Labour) </i></span>are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. <br /><br />Chancellor Scholz <i><span style="color: #444444;">(SPD)</span></i> is now at loggerheads with the Farmers Union, with more strikes planned.<br /><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><div style="text-align: center;"><b>AfD </b><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>- 18.8</span>%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span></span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.6)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> - </span><span style="font-family: arial;">30.4%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(-0.1)</span><br /><span style="color: #800180; font-weight: bold;">FW</span><span style="color: #073763; font-weight: bold;"> </span>- 2.8%<i> (<span style="color: #444444;">-0.2)</span></i></span></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP </b></span><span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">- </span>4.4%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)</span></i></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><b style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #04ff00;">Grune</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> - </span>13.4%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4</span></i></span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444;"> - </span>15.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.6)</span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: arial;"><b>Die Linke</b></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> - </span><span style="font-family: arial;">3.1%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(-0.5)<br /></span><span><b style="color: #990000;">BSW </b>- 6.4% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.1)</span></i><br /></span><div style="color: #444444; font-style: italic; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-size: small;"><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(In UK terms and crudely put, </span></i><i><span><b>AfD</b></span><span><b> </b><span style="color: #444444;">are similar to BNP/UKIP, </span></span></i><i><span style="color: #01ffff;"><b>CDU</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>CSU</b></span></i><span><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span><span style="color: #444444;">is a coalition of Cameron</span><span style="color: #444444;">-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, </span></span></i></span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #800180;">FW</span> </span><span style="color: #073763;"><i>are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',<b> </b></i></span></span><span style="color: black;"><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span></i></span><i><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), </span></i><i><span style="color: #04ff00;"><b>Grune</b> </span><span style="color: #444444;">are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), </span></i><i><span style="color: red;"><b>SPD</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"><b> </b>are similar to Blair's New Labour, </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Die Linke</b></span></i><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"> a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and </span><span style="color: #990000;"><b>BSW</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> a strange party described as 'populist-socialist' similar to Galloway's Workers Party of GB.)</span></i></span></span></i></div><span><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small; font-style: italic;"><i><br /></i></span><div><span><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">USA</u><br /><br />The month wouldn't be complete without mentioning............................'The Donald'. Trump is seemingly bullet-proof. The more misery the 'swamp' attempts to pin on him, the higher he goes in the polls. He has won the first six Republican Primaries at a canter. His only real rival - Nikki Haley, even lost her home state. As we go to print, even though strictly speaking it's really for next month's round-up, Haley won Washington DC but that will be the pinnacle of her campaign I suspect and <b><u><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday">'Super-Tuesday'</a></u></b> on March 5th, where Republicans in 15 states & one territory will select their choice of candidate will probably see her withdraw uness she pulls of a miracle. At that point, if she has poor results, her spoonsors and backers will abandon her and her campaign will run out of money. <br /><br />Biden for his part continues to sink lower amongst his own supporters. <br /><br />I show this graphic of polling in six key states.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSFH3PXRH9rNE11t7dl4CVvdf7OI80vYG4EyKF-vqBzqRlNv_KQkn8pJO4Rv2Udt45LWyGUvpwyDIW-fqP4Qab8cT92f-eOpCdSASNptkjY0YZSx1nDllOsSykBGpFY7H3S3HHbtL2J57bXxzqVuxlkcf76nNJNsgv4xx5qb4I7ZGcgkRxKbM6HuK9hjqM/s670/USA.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="670" data-original-width="592" height="453" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSFH3PXRH9rNE11t7dl4CVvdf7OI80vYG4EyKF-vqBzqRlNv_KQkn8pJO4Rv2Udt45LWyGUvpwyDIW-fqP4Qab8cT92f-eOpCdSASNptkjY0YZSx1nDllOsSykBGpFY7H3S3HHbtL2J57bXxzqVuxlkcf76nNJNsgv4xx5qb4I7ZGcgkRxKbM6HuK9hjqM/w401-h453/USA.jpg" width="401" /></a><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">A massive poll conducted in every state suggests that if the Presidential election were to be held tomorrow, the Electoral College (the system the USA uses) will be 224-314 in Trump's favour. A landslide.</div><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVtrzJaMku7_euIg6hdnsAMtDzGip8unOG0xfdczGeZiD5XEGBDJ0dFYZnf-9mQjEj5RUDPgk_oMxE6AucEFc4T5rP2d3bQemakdydSMMLQAqkFr4H1AvBWeuU4LdAOfGkgJEtb9cyWDCQjdu-hdq6bAiW7rHxuNOj15NyPqivnK5kAluo8ZFOy_wzV2CW" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVtrzJaMku7_euIg6hdnsAMtDzGip8unOG0xfdczGeZiD5XEGBDJ0dFYZnf-9mQjEj5RUDPgk_oMxE6AucEFc4T5rP2d3bQemakdydSMMLQAqkFr4H1AvBWeuU4LdAOfGkgJEtb9cyWDCQjdu-hdq6bAiW7rHxuNOj15NyPqivnK5kAluo8ZFOy_wzV2CW=w358-h358" width="358" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></span></span></div></div></span></div></span></span></div></div></span></span></span></div></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></span></div></span></span></div></div></span></span></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-38625161977309575862024-02-06T18:13:00.008+00:002024-03-02T06:29:28.836+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR JANUARY 2024<p> </p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi80lISXqtPb6B0SoZDYVbIJsHU7BSogr7OS_lP2y5VxBLFqBRq-BnA56LJmwqV3G951gsnXcfR-7U9qiDO9vl0PmxL4QeKrFt0ttm3CWrPR-vcDD9NCrjHloHiNsYvWnTtv5qDfR9lhJU-16ZYn-vTmywYsat6JExaT7oY2U6UAx4LRrEMze7deSGC581l/s233/jan.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="233" data-original-width="205" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi80lISXqtPb6B0SoZDYVbIJsHU7BSogr7OS_lP2y5VxBLFqBRq-BnA56LJmwqV3G951gsnXcfR-7U9qiDO9vl0PmxL4QeKrFt0ttm3CWrPR-vcDD9NCrjHloHiNsYvWnTtv5qDfR9lhJU-16ZYn-vTmywYsat6JExaT7oY2U6UAx4LRrEMze7deSGC581l/s1600/jan.png" width="205" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTOFw50Cx2TbrYgG5lLkSYW6YuM4NHdarJ1qtF5RASBBiQ06prWIRy94c0ypOM94nrkL6L3epX_ogCpOE4dvKXvNvjHhOpTC-Ra-2FWxnWgxgV4ZSqRz45eL5VN9WriS9nMAJ4ROGHBENiajawRogxkb1oMphnF3AIOuOxHMdp2pHrRnyyyEPRa5XtC1AY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="227" data-original-width="222" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTOFw50Cx2TbrYgG5lLkSYW6YuM4NHdarJ1qtF5RASBBiQ06prWIRy94c0ypOM94nrkL6L3epX_ogCpOE4dvKXvNvjHhOpTC-Ra-2FWxnWgxgV4ZSqRz45eL5VN9WriS9nMAJ4ROGHBENiajawRogxkb1oMphnF3AIOuOxHMdp2pHrRnyyyEPRa5XtC1AY=w228-h232" width="228" /></a></div></div><p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>JANUARY</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 30 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 26.1</span> </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3)<br /></span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 41.7% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.9) <br /></span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 10.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.2</span></i></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">) <br /></span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 5.5% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc) </span></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 9.3% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.7)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 7.3% </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(+1.5)</i></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)</span></i></div><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 20-28%, Labour between 39-49</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 6-11</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in 29 of the 30</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span> polls</span> and on two occasions showed a 27% lead </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;">(<span> YouGov 16-17 Jan & 23-24 Jan</span>)</i>.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 13-27%.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">If a General Election were held on these <b>January</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> figures</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> </i></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">and <u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html">using the new boundaries</a></b></span></u>, it would result in a Parliament of<b>*</b> :- L400 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-15)</span></i>, C179 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+11)</span></i>, SNP 20 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+4)</span></i> , LD28 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1)</span></i>, PC2 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1)</span></i>, G2 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1)</span></i>, NI18, Speaker</span><b style="background-color: white;"> </b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">1</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> with Labour having a majority of 150 </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 155.).</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>(<b>*</b><span style="color: #444444;"><i>F</i></span></span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">igures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction)</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparisons</span></u></b></div><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: </span><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(256 polls)<br /></i></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Polling figures for 2022 </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)<br /></i></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Polling figures for 2023 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><i>(367 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14</span><span style="background-color: white;">%<br /><br />Polling figures for 2024 <i>(30 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Con 26.1%, Lab 41.7%, LDem 10.1%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 9.3%, Oth 7.3%<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Lab lead over Con 2024: 15.60</span><span style="background-color: white;">%<br /></span></span></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />The war in the midde east rumbles on, slowly widening with no clear end in sight. <br /><br />In UK the Tories carry on with their assasinations and navel gazing, seemingly completely oblivious to what is about to engulf them if they don't start paying attention, in a war that has now widened to the Parliamentary tory party <i><span style="color: #444444;">(MPs & Lords)</span></i> vs the associations and members, with the former wanting total control over selecting the party leader and the policies whilst the later want greater party democracy. Labour for their part are systematically deleting all committments and policies as the intention now is to allow Starmer to enter the General Election campaign 'policy-lite' so that he can't be pinned on anything. This is a strategy that requires micro-management because if the voters at large 'twig' that they will in effect be voting for a blank piece of paper with no idea as to what direction Labour intend to go, they might not warm to it. Starmer is also seeking total control over party conference agenda. Labour also continued with their 'Business Blitz' with a £1,000-a-head ticketed event for big business leaders. It received a mixed reaction with the moguls moaning that there was far to much theory with too little reality and hands-on experience. Labour again committed to their promise that they will not take the UK back into the EU, the Single Market or the Customs Union.<br /><br />Reform continue to grow and in a couple of seats are actually polling high enough locally to take them on current trends. They are pushing for second slot in the forth-coming Wellingborough by-election <span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(15 Feb)</span> </i>and almost certainly their vote will cost the Tories the seat. The tory campaign team are spending a huges amount of time trying to explain to Reform voters that they are gifting the seat to Labour, however the would-be Reform voters are countering that with they haven't moved position - the tories have and if the tories want them back, they have to move to them.</span> Nationally Reform are now starting to out-poll the LDems with increasing regularity.<br /><br />Likewise, the Covid Inquiry rumbles on also slowly widening with no clear end in sight and still to even bother making a feeble effort at what it was set up to do. Nicola Sturgeon played for the sympathy vote and was ruthlessly and mercilessly mocked and the SAGE sientists admitted that not once did they ever consider the wider societal and financial implications of their recommendations and always presented only the 'worst case' scenario.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><div><b><u>SCOTLAND</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>There were three Westminster polls released during the month. <i><span style="color: #444444;">(figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</span></i>:-</div><div><br /></div><div>SNP: 34.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.3)</span></i></div><div>SCon: 16.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.3)</i></span></div><div>SLab: 35.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.2)</i></span></div><div>SLD: 8.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0)</span></i></div><div>Oth: 6.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>There were two Holyrood polls released during the month. <i><span style="color: #444444;">(figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list</span></i>):-</div><div><br /></div><div>SNP: 36.5/27.5%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-4.5/-0.5)</span></i></div><div>SCon: 16.0/18.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+1.0/-3.0)</span></i></div><div>SLab: 31.5/29.5%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+4.5/-+2.5)</span></i></div><div>SLD: 7.5/8.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.5/+0.5)</i></span></div><div>SGP: 4.0/10.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc/+1.0)</span></i></div><div>Oth: 4.5/6.5%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+1.5/-0.5)</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (<i><span style="color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</span></i>:-</div><div><br /></div><div>Yes: 46.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.2)</span></i>, No: 46.8%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+1.3)</span></i>, DK: 6.9%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+0.9)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Yes: 48.2%, No: 51.8%)</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SCon: 25.1%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLab: 18.6%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLDem: 9.5%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 1.8%).</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Holyrood Election 2022)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SCon: 21.9/23.5%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLab: 21.6/17.9%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLD: 6.9/5.1%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SGP: 1.3/8.1%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.6/3.4%).</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">Yes: 44.7%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">No: 55.3%</span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span><b>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westminster poll released during the month.</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(</i></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><i>figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-<br /></span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 48.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i><br /></span>Con: 20.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0</i></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>)</i><br /></span>PC: 10.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i><br /></span>LDem: 4.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0)</i><br /></span>Rfm 12.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.0)</i><br /></span>Grn: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.0)</i><br /></span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 2.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;">(+1.0)<span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There wasone IndyRef poll released during the month<span style="color: #444444;">. </span></span><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div></span></span><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 30%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0)</span></i><i style="color: #444444;">, </i>No: 59% <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(+2.0),</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span>DK: 11%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><i>(-4.0)<br /></i></span><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Yes: 33.7%, No: 66.3%)</span></i></div><br /></span><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-style: italic;"><i><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;">(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.</span><b><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"> <span style="color: #444444;">Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the </span></span><span style="color: #444444;">AMS system they currently use. The only countries on earth that use a similar system are </span></b></i><span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-size: 16px;"><b><span style="color: #444444;">Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay. </span></b></span><i><b><span style="color: #444444;">You really couldn't make it up.</span></b><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div><br /></div><div style="font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></span></span></div></span></span><div><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /></b></b></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Things are moving with pace for the Assembly, deals being struck, history made. Westminster has unliaterally amended the UK internal Market laws, and goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain will no longer be subject to Customs declararions etc nor treated any differently than if they were moving between Engand & Wals for exampe. The Republic of Ireland is 'relaxed' about it but I am sure at some tage brussels will kick off.</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Last months figures are repeated just for reference </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><i style="color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-</span></span></div></div></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 31.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+8.0)<br /></span></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 25.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-6.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 15.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-2.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UUP: 11.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SDLP: 9.0%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(-6.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">TUV: 5.0%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(did not stand in 2019, first polling since)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> <i>(na)</i></span></span></div><div><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)</span></i></div></div><div><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></div></div></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Assembly polls released during the month.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i>(General Election 2019)</i><br /></span></span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><span><i><span>(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></i></span><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></div>(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)<br />(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)</i></span></span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div></span></span></span><div style="background-color: white;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.<br /><br />The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleagured at the moment with asylum seekers, the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches. Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were two polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 27.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.5)</i></span></div><div>FF: 17.0 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0)</i></span></div><div>FG: 20.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i></span></div><div>GP: 3.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.5)</i></span></div><div>LP: 3.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.5)</i></span></div><div>SD: 5.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.5)</i></span></div><div>PBP-S: 3.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 3.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 17.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+4.0)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i style="font-size: medium;">Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=</i><i>Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,</i></span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= </i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)<br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-style: italic;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: small; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /></b></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: small; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;">Germany</u></span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></u></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(Tories & Labour) </i></span>are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. <br /><br />Chancellor Scholz <i><span style="color: #444444;">(SPD)</span></i> is now at loggerheads with the Farmers Union, with more strikes planned.<br /><br />The mainstream parties - in conjunction with the Trades Unions etc, have held a series of large rallies across major towns and cities protesting about the rise and politics of AfD but they appear to have had little to no impact and were attended in the main by people that wouldn't vote for the AfD anyway. Recently there have been a series of 'establishment' scandals involving AfD but voters currently are viewing them as an establishment plot to discredit them and the sudden appearance in the polling of BSW could also well be an attempt to offer an EU-sceptic, anti-immigrant, populist-left </span></span></span>alternative to EU-sceptic, anti-immigrant, populist-right AfD and knock a bit of wind out of their sails. BSW are basically left-wing nationalists who broke away from Die Linke. <span style="color: #202122;">The political positions of</span><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-weight: bold;"><u><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%BCndnis_Sahra_Wagenknecht"> BSW</a></u></span> include further restrictions on immigration, a plan for de-globalist, opposed to green politics, ending military aid to Ukraine, a neg<span style="color: #202122;">otiated settlement to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, </span><span style="color: #202122;"> ecnomic interventionism at hme irrespectve of EU policy , geater state benefits - </span><span style="color: #202122;">which are to be financed by the wealthy, while assets and inheritances should be spared.</span><span style="color: #202122;"> </span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;">AfD </b><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">- </span>21.4%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span></span><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.6)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> - </span><span style="font-family: arial;">30.5%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(-2.0)</span><br /><span style="color: #800180; font-weight: bold;">FW</span><span style="color: #073763; font-weight: bold;"> </span>- 3.0%<i> (<span style="color: #444444;">-0.3)</span></i></span></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP </b></span><span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">- </span>4.6%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</span></i></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><b style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #04ff00;">Grune</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> - </span>13.0%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-+0.6</span></i></span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444;"> - </span>14.6%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.2)</span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: arial;"><b>Die Linke</b></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> - </span><span style="font-family: arial;">3.6%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(+0.1)<br /></span><span><b style="color: #990000;">BSW </b>- 6.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(na)</span></i><br /></span><div style="color: #444444; font-style: italic; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i style="font-size: small;"><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(In UK terms, crudely put, </span></i><i><span><b>AfD</b></span><span><b> </b><span style="color: #444444;">are similar to BNP/UKIP, </span></span></i><i><span style="color: #01ffff;"><b>CDU</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>CSU</b></span></i><span><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span><span style="color: #444444;">is a coalition of Cameron</span><span style="color: #444444;">-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, </span></span></i></span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #800180;">FW</span> </span><span style="color: #073763;"><i>are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',<b> </b></i></span></span><span style="color: black;"><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span></i></span><i><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), </span></i><i><span style="color: #04ff00;"><b>Grune</b> </span><span style="color: #444444;">are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), </span></i><i><span style="color: red;"><b>SPD</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"><b> </b>are similar to Blair's New Labour, </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Die Linke</b></span></i><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"> a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and </span><span style="color: #990000;"><b>BSW</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> a strange party described as 'populist-socialist' similar to Galloway's Workers Party of GB.)</span></i></span><br /></span></i><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: x-small; font-style: italic;"><i><br /></i></span><div><span><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhUaSemyAgXM6D0go5_liQKSrZhFHQ3s4WJL9VaI55fXQMKkwLSWquuqv54NsxEGN6AJlgnAvZNVY_oyC_mzC7BqD-pkEWLCgEDk87i9a6vEe-dTJSo927Nc91HwKZlIdTffksPfb7lO9FfvDhtpD-9N26xV5A6qKd41jBrYMNsNoJsnaXItot5MDqfW56m" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhUaSemyAgXM6D0go5_liQKSrZhFHQ3s4WJL9VaI55fXQMKkwLSWquuqv54NsxEGN6AJlgnAvZNVY_oyC_mzC7BqD-pkEWLCgEDk87i9a6vEe-dTJSo927Nc91HwKZlIdTffksPfb7lO9FfvDhtpD-9N26xV5A6qKd41jBrYMNsNoJsnaXItot5MDqfW56m=w316-h316" width="316" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></span></div></div></span></div></span></span></div></div></span></span></span></div></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></span></div></div></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-17576389855027647292024-01-07T19:01:00.016+00:002024-02-04T18:54:44.091+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR DECEMBER 2023<p></p><div style="text-align: center;"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigFkoAmMRUfTHLrjqSvmGkNZkxp0fIWVq3R8F0jVfQUpIDgbQA5uJ9R7432hNxJW8ikkXL-xKHeGCe2eVynqHSNSK-AG9gHk9OJH0zkeazZ3AYKK_vORjLSdAunvSUQ-keemQsjtEsXT1hg2qG3UIoiEr5YF_0D-rfQhVJmBzBH7eQIp15tmn2l8tJw0-7/s229/dec.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="223" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigFkoAmMRUfTHLrjqSvmGkNZkxp0fIWVq3R8F0jVfQUpIDgbQA5uJ9R7432hNxJW8ikkXL-xKHeGCe2eVynqHSNSK-AG9gHk9OJH0zkeazZ3AYKK_vORjLSdAunvSUQ-keemQsjtEsXT1hg2qG3UIoiEr5YF_0D-rfQhVJmBzBH7eQIp15tmn2l8tJw0-7/s1600/dec.png" width="223" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkQlpgJNs8twAMvk7jtt6g2_l7G5zgrghu_ihQpBPxWOV0mn8kn99D9eKcr5gxwy9sBq10xNjLce9DXWB_eLG3fvdjlzjGkmiLlhYlp8CvAOZNULb4rqzN6l1pED7nXtkMr3jSN9w8zPNX58AO01DH-Rxx8mDxTZ3zTDC-gj5-2A4TF5xHrXZSs2ey0Z3f/s227/ytd.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="227" data-original-width="222" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkQlpgJNs8twAMvk7jtt6g2_l7G5zgrghu_ihQpBPxWOV0mn8kn99D9eKcr5gxwy9sBq10xNjLce9DXWB_eLG3fvdjlzjGkmiLlhYlp8CvAOZNULb4rqzN6l1pED7nXtkMr3jSN9w8zPNX58AO01DH-Rxx8mDxTZ3zTDC-gj5-2A4TF5xHrXZSs2ey0Z3f/s1600/ytd.png" width="222" /></a><br /></div></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>DECEMBER</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 23 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 26.4%</span> </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.6)</span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 42.6% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.8) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 11.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3</span></i></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 5.5% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.4) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 8.6% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.1)</span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 5.8% </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(+0.3)</i></span><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for July:- 16.17% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.45)</span></i></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><br />The Tories swung between 22-30%, Labour between 40-46</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 9-13</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 23 polls</span> and on two occasions showed a 23% lead </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;">(<span> YouGov 6-7 Dec & Techne 6-7 Dec </span>)</i>.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 13-23%.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">If a General Election were held on these <b>December</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"> figures</span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">:-</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">and <u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html">using the new boundaries</a></b></span></u>, it would result in a Parliament of<b>*</b> L415 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-9)</span></i>, C168 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+23)</span></i>, SNP 16 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-12)</span></i> , LD29 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2)</span></i>, PC3 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i>, G1 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i>, NI18, Speaker</span><b style="background-color: white;"> </b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">1</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> with Labour having a majority of 180 </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 185.).</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>(<b>*</b><span style="color: #444444;"><i>F</i></span></span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">igures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction)</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">.</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></div><div><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparisons</span></u></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: <br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(256 polls)<br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Polling figures for 2022 </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Polling figures for 2023 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><i>(367 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14</span><span style="background-color: white;">%<br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Polling figures for December </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(23 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Con 26.4%, Lab 42.6%, LDem 11.2%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 8.6%, Oth 5.8%<br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con December: 16.17% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.45)</span></i><br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;">The main focus of all politicians - irrespective of what they say publicly, remains the situation in Gaza which is slowly widening and spreading. The fear of all is that the west will at some stage have to become militarily involved again in the Middle East - something that after Iraq, Afghanistan & Syria it is highly resistant to unless it becomes a 'last resort'; and the situation starts to raise inflation and the price of oil thus endangering the western economies<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (think what happened in the 1970s with the arab response to the Yom Kippur war)</span></i>. Oil remains reasonably low, but sooner or later the arab nations in OPEC+ are going to use it to force the issue with the west unless something is done to resolve Gaza. At the time of writing, inflation in UK is still falling but in other leading european economies is starting to rise again and is tipped to start rising again in the USA later in the year. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />Mostly, little of any worth is being said by either side as they watch each other warily during what is now the pre-election 'phoney war'.<br /><br />The Covid enquiry plods on and continues to do little with what it was actually set up for - looking at the causes of Covid and the lessons that can be learned for future pandemics, instead preferring to preside over character assasinations going on between the tory government, scientists, medics and civil servants with all of them attacking each other and also rival peers within their own camps. In other words, we are spending over £100m to learn nothing at all.<br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><div><b><u>SCOTLAND</u></b></div><div>Politics remained very quiet in Scotland during December as they prepared for Hogmany.</div><div><br /></div><div>There were no Westminster polls released during the month. Last months figures are repeated just for reference <i><span style="color: #444444;">(figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</span></i>:-</div><div><br /></div><div><div>SNP: 37.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+3.8)</span></i></div><div>SCon: 16.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.8)</i></span></div><div>SLab: 33.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.8)</i></span></div><div><div>SLD: 6.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.6)</span></i></div><div>Oth: 7.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4)</span></i></div></div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>There were no Holyrood polls released during the month Last months figures are repeated just for reference <i><span style="color: #444444;">(figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list</span></i>):-</div><div><br /></div><div>SNP: 41.0/28.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+5.4/+0.2)</span></i></div><div>SCon: 15.0/21.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-4.2/+5.0)</span></i></div><div>SLab: 27.0/27.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-3.4/-0.8)</span></i></div><div>SLD: 8.0/8.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc/-0.6)</i></span></div><div>SGP: 4.0/9.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2/-2.4)</span></i></div><div>Oth: 3.0/7.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+1.0/-1.4)</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>There were no IndyRef polls released during the month. Last months figures are repeated just for reference (<i><span style="color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</span></i>:-</div><div><br /></div><div>Yes: 48.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+4.3)</span></i>, No: 45.5%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-3.1)</span></i>, DK: 6.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.2)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Yes: 51.6%, No: 48.4%)</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SCon: 25.1%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLab: 18.6%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLDem: 9.5%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 1.8%).</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Holyrood Election 2022)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SCon: 21.9/23.5%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLab: 21.6/17.9%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SLD: 6.9/5.1%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">SGP: 1.3/8.1%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.6/3.4%).</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">Yes: 44.7%</span></i></div><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">No: 55.3%</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westminster poll released during the month.</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(</i></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><i>figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-<br /></span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 47.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+3.0)</i><br /></span>Con: 22.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0</i></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>)</i><br /></span>PC: 11.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0)</i><br /></span>LDem: 6.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.0)</i><br /></span>Rfm 10.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i><br /></span>Grn: 2.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.0)</i><br /></span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 2.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;">(+1.0)<span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were two IndyRef polls released during the month<span style="color: #444444;">. </span></span><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 28%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.0)</span></i><i style="color: #444444;">, </i>No: 57% <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(-2.0),</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span>DK: 15%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><i>(+5.0)<br /></i></span><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Yes: 32.9%, No: 67.1%)</span></i></div><br /></span><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i>(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /></b></b></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol. Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Last months figures are repeated just for reference </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><i style="color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-</span></span></div></div></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 31.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+8.0)<br /></span></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 25.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-6.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 15.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-2.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UUP: 11.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SDLP: 9.0%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(-6.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">TUV: 5.0%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(did not stand in 2019, first polling since)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> <i>(na)</i></span></span></div><div><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)</span></i></div></div><div><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></div></div></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Assembly polls released during the month.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i>(General Election 2019)</i><br /></span></span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><span><i style="background-color: transparent;"><span>(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></i></span><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></div>(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)<br />(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)</i></span></span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div><span><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.<br /><br />The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleagured at the moment with asylum seekers, the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches. Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There was two polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 28.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0)</i></span></div><div>FF: 19.0 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.0)</i></span></div><div>FG: 21.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.5)</i></span></div><div>GP: 3.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i></span></div><div>LP: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.5)</i></span></div><div>SD: 5.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.5)</i></span></div><div>PBP-S: 4.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 3.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.5)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 13.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.5)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i style="font-size: medium;">Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=</i><i>Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,</i></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= </i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)<br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-style: italic;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: small; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;">Germany</u></span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></u></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(Tories & Labour) </i></span>are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. <br /><br />As an example of political re-alignment underway in Germany, there are about to be a series of large strikes, all opposed by Olaf Scholz's ruling SPD, while the party supporting the unions <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(and who the unions are working with)</i></span>, is the populist-Right AfD.</span></span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;">AfD </b><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">- </span>23.0%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span></span><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> - </span><span style="font-family: arial;">32.5%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(+2.7)</span><br /><span style="color: #800180; font-weight: bold;">FW</span><span style="color: #073763; font-weight: bold;"> </span>- 3.3%<i style="font-style: italic;"> (<span style="color: #444444;">n/a)</span></i></span></span></div><div><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP </b></span><span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">- </span>5.1%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span><i style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><span><b style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #04ff00;">Grune</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> - </span>12.4%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span><i style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.9</span></i></span><i style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444;"> - </span>13.4%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(-2.4)</span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: arial;"><b>Die Linke</b></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> - </span><span style="font-family: arial;">3.5%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(-0.6)</span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><br /></span><div style="color: #444444; font-size: medium; font-style: italic; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i style="font-size: small; font-style: italic;"><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(In UK terms, crudely put, </span></i><i><span><b>AfD</b></span><span><b> </b><span style="color: #444444;">are similar to BNP/UKIP, </span></span></i><i><span style="color: #01ffff;"><b>CDU</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>CSU</b></span></i><span><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span><span style="color: #444444;">is a coalition of Cameron</span><span style="color: #444444;">-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, </span></span></i></span></span><span style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: #800180;">FW</span> </span><span style="color: #073763;"><i>are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',<b> </b></i></span></span><span style="color: black;"><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span></i></span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), </span></i><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #04ff00;"><b>Grune</b> </span><span style="color: #444444;">are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), </span></i><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: red;"><b>SPD</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"><b> </b>are similar to Blair's New Labour, </span><span style="color: #444444;">and </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Die Linke</b></span></i><span style="color: #444444;"><i> a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)</i></span><br /></span></i><span style="color: #444444; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: x-small; font-style: italic;"><i><br /></i></span><div><span><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><u style="font-weight: 700;">THE USA</u><br /><br />The Presidentials in the USA are starting to disintegrate into a 'Carry On' Film. That said, latest polling figures have Trump on course for a bigger election victory than in 2016 as the mainstream voters become increasingly disillusined by the machinations of the Washington 'swamp' to stop Trump standing let alone winning, and it's obesession with what most Americans view as politically correct drivel. Latest polling now has Trump not only with a clear lead in every swing state, but the US public is now against funding at the previous levels for Ukraine, but in favour of increasing spending on military aid for Israel. Despite the antics of the metropolitan 'woke' liberal middle class, the majority of Americans remain supportive of Israeli action in Gaza while at the same time, they are becoming increasingly against the cost of continued support for Ukraine believing its a european problem that has little bearing on the USA and europe should be taking the lions share of the financing and military support and not the US.<br /><br />Society-wise, the US is falling to pieces, particulalrly in the<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (Democrat-run)</span></i> major urban areas. For example there are now 50,000 people sleeping rough on the streets in just New York alone every night, including families and lone children, as well as more in the overnight-shelters which are full every night. Several cities are now taking over car parks and installing security so that people living out of their cars have somewhere safe to sleep. Illegal immigration coming over the Mexican border is now reaching astronomic levels with over 3m crossing during 2023 alone. Several cities that effectivley 'de-criminalised' hard drugs by opting to turn a blind-eye <i><span style="color: #444444;">(again almost exclusively Democrat)</span></i> are now deeply regretting their action as streets in the poorer areas are littered with semi-conscious junkies addicted to mass-produced cheap Chinese Fentanyl along with other artificial opioid drugs and other synthetics developed in Chinese laboratories and the formulae sold on to crime, along with the associated rise in muggings, thefts, burglaries, begging, involvement of organised crime and street prostitution.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />Biden is now the most unpopular White House incumbent since records began during the Civil War. He is even more unpopular than 'Tricky-Dickie' Richard Nixon at his lowest.<br /><br />There is now a massive<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (and widening) </span></i>cultural split beween the urbanised liberal-left middle class in the metropolitan areas - who although in the minority, because of location, organisation, income, opportunity and education etc, hold the levers of power, and the majority mainstream 'ordinary' Americans in the suburban and rural areas,who are becoming increasingly annoyed and hostile towards them, Washington and what is described as 'woke ideaology' by the day. Trump even leads among the black & hispanc working class & union members<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (much to the disgust & dismay of the union leaders)</i> </span>and the election among the 'swamp' and the elite is aready sinking to 'Stop Trump' as opposed to any ideas for dealing with the USA's increasing societal problems.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><span>PREDICTIONS FOR 2024.</span></u></b><br /><br />There are major elections during the year for over half the worlds population able to vote. Russia, India, USA, UK all go to the polls as well as the EU and there are a host of nations with fragile coalition rgovernments that will probably fall - such as Netherlands, Poland, Argentina and others, that will also probably need to got to the polls. With that many voters all involved at once, the scene is set for seismic shifts.<br /><br />USA:- This is going to be a vicous and dirty year politically. Provided Trump gets to the election in November, he will win however the turn-out will be very low and the USA will be split deeply. If he doesn't make the final vote but Biden does, expect a marginal paper thin Biden victory, but with the Republicans taking both Houses, effectively crippling him from the outset. As an outside bet, don't be surprised if neither Trump nor Biden make the final vote - Trump for legal rasons and Biden for health reasons; and it ends up Kamala Harris(D) against Nikki Haley(R) in which case Haley will win and either way the USA will have it's first female President. Whatever the outcome, the USA is about to enter an extremely volatile and divisive period against a backdrop of increasing social decay and disorder that will last years. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />The EU:- The European elections are going to deeply distress the EU fanatics as the EU takes a major lurch to the Right and immediately sets about re-jigging the EU economy - particulalrly the euro-zone, to a far less centralised, one-size-fits-all system and allowing member-states far more freedoms to diverge and opt-out of parts as well as tightening what 'Freedom Of Movement' means and restricting it to meaning freedom to move states to a job that you have been offered and are taking <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(what it originally meant).</i> </span> In addition, they will start to take a far far tougher line with asylum seekers and tighten their borders. Facial Recognition backed up with bio-metrics will be widely rolled-out right across the bloc. Artificial Intelligence will start to become widely used across government & industry. Something few people seem to realise is the EU Council Presidency is a rotating thing shared among member states in sequential order. The next Council President of the EU is the head of Hungary - which presently happens to be Viktor Orban. With more EU policy set to become QMV as opposed to absolute, the Council Presidency held by an EU-sceptic, and the European Parliament about to lurch significantly rightwards, the scene is set for fun & games.<br /><br />UK:- Labour will probably win the UK election which will be a heated affair and which will probably take place mid-October. However it will be a far far smaller majority than current polling suggests and don't be surprised if they end up in minority government with politicians from all sides who are seemingly intent on ignoring the wishes of the openly disenchanted public. The turn-out will be one of the lowest since WW2. The UK electorate is 'fragile' and unsettled and the majority have no faith in nor respect for politicians from either camp. One slip by either Starmer or Sunak <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(or any of their first team)</i> </span>will cause immedaite and quite noticeable shifts among voters, with immigration, taxation and housing being the major issues. The public will also expect concrete guarenteed answers to<i> 'What Are You Going To Do About Our Concerns? When? How Long Will It Take? How Much Will It Cost? Where Will The Money Come From?</i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />Russia:- Putin is a shoe-in unless the Russian Mafia or the military decide it's time for regime change.<br /><br />India:- Modi is a shoe-in. His mix of central control and free-market policies <i><span style="color: #444444;">(similar to Italian fascism of the 1920s & 30s)</span></i> is eliminating poverty in India at a phenonamal rate.<br /><br />The Ukraine War:- This is nowhere near a finished affair yet and neither side is showing any desire to end it and they remain miles apart. It will rumble on all year. The introduction of US F-16 aircraft will make only a marginal difference <i><span style="color: #444444;">(as happened with LEOPARD2)</span></i>. Ultimately this highly-sophisticated western kit is designed to be operated by highly trained personnel, who have had years of experience and thousands of hours of training - the kit is only as good as the operator.<br /><br />Gaza:- This should end by summer with Israel clear victors. The main factor being the US wants this off the agenda by summer so it does not become an election issue in the Presidential election campaign. Some sort of post-war arrangement is already taking shape behind the scenes<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(the 'four corner' strategy roughly suported by Israel & Egypt)</span> </i>with Gaza nominally remaining in the Palestinian Authority but semi-autonomous, ruled buy an appointed, pro-west, secularist Council of elders with proven non-HAMAS links, under direct supervision of Israel & the USA. The proposal sees it occupied by a pan-Arab paramilitary police force drawn from Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan & Turkey who will maintain law and order, with Israeli Special Forces in charge of anti-terrorism and the borders. The USA, Saudi Arabia and several other 'oil nations' will re-build Gaza with an open, liberalised, western-style economy. Basic 'building block' societal things such as childrens' education along with the curriculum for it, will come under direct US control with the EU and Israel heavily involved. Religion and non-secular Islam, will be forced to loosen it's grip and take a back seat. If it doesn't end by the end of summer, the whole middle east will explode.<br /><br />Happy New Year.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: small; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYl4l5zNj2ANjAS7MOenueLou5lyzboPqws5Z9it4WFy2vv0YiPqx0eRudStaNreN7TvIiHMjl2LwR6WwFE6O4DHZDI1kbZpSWtgjfQa18lRH3T2GztziTIgm1x3qMwoeCF8Rboja1Sd2Q3tzvpKjPCNYO-71_bTMPnjjcb6qHN9fwellhmDo9m2O3W9jQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiYl4l5zNj2ANjAS7MOenueLou5lyzboPqws5Z9it4WFy2vv0YiPqx0eRudStaNreN7TvIiHMjl2LwR6WwFE6O4DHZDI1kbZpSWtgjfQa18lRH3T2GztziTIgm1x3qMwoeCF8Rboja1Sd2Q3tzvpKjPCNYO-71_bTMPnjjcb6qHN9fwellhmDo9m2O3W9jQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgw4T7aYT1XHOl-k03dwqxdj0zfXX6a6mpDfiGu31mx_GaXG0nawoTxvbTPCb59IizunP4OLGA5Wv652KSof0Pw30v0-MLBRVbkTSDNeW3l8HEP0gBIf-tG0-mx8RxMO8NqJp2HBCuT8eCPWZgMddFnXYx_FSoa0LB_BLGh7IfDgONQYFYdSbjXYJChMT3c" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="608" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgw4T7aYT1XHOl-k03dwqxdj0zfXX6a6mpDfiGu31mx_GaXG0nawoTxvbTPCb59IizunP4OLGA5Wv652KSof0Pw30v0-MLBRVbkTSDNeW3l8HEP0gBIf-tG0-mx8RxMO8NqJp2HBCuT8eCPWZgMddFnXYx_FSoa0LB_BLGh7IfDgONQYFYdSbjXYJChMT3c=w430-h430" width="430" /></a></div><br /></div><br /><br /><br /></div></div></span></div></div></span></div></span></span></div></div></span></span></span></div></span></span></span></span></div></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></span></span></span></div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"></span></div></span></div></span></span></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-74158946252404378122023-12-07T20:38:00.000+00:002023-12-07T20:38:12.770+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR NOVEMBER 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLKJCspV5SLD1sxjzdHPOXhZFjOPZIMmI6x1F1FSAtqG3K5_OVM0o8HuGgczsiesgnlSM8vQkBXboNJ8vc7t0pyOYjPuY2yyrG-3Xz1aIvWH9bcY8XpDF0NdroaIuHcG4_P4_Q3f4Si6LMKEdnkqAtfOWwTpBVm5u23gHLhYfR4tPWStlLogwrl9bFddW4/s232/nov.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="232" data-original-width="229" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLKJCspV5SLD1sxjzdHPOXhZFjOPZIMmI6x1F1FSAtqG3K5_OVM0o8HuGgczsiesgnlSM8vQkBXboNJ8vc7t0pyOYjPuY2yyrG-3Xz1aIvWH9bcY8XpDF0NdroaIuHcG4_P4_Q3f4Si6LMKEdnkqAtfOWwTpBVm5u23gHLhYfR4tPWStlLogwrl9bFddW4/s1600/nov.png" width="229" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL30NgoCt9qVIrSqaB3oQ9UoTY3pTACYEFP9rX8EnfySNrh6Ys3gfEOmHhHqzAKF-hnMoViurbOoJSC1wbWOmyLUI9ziENZkcg71jN8uy2vMx3M4Z4dJAjOtqHkZ64RzR295LKXQ1z3S2H5nw6Bask4FYtpfwNLSyM2MMGzqqc4zF5SnS2VCBl4ZSFJbxP/s247/ttd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="232" data-original-width="247" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL30NgoCt9qVIrSqaB3oQ9UoTY3pTACYEFP9rX8EnfySNrh6Ys3gfEOmHhHqzAKF-hnMoViurbOoJSC1wbWOmyLUI9ziENZkcg71jN8uy2vMx3M4Z4dJAjOtqHkZ64RzR295LKXQ1z3S2H5nw6Bask4FYtpfwNLSyM2MMGzqqc4zF5SnS2VCBl4ZSFJbxP/s1600/ttd.png" width="247" /></a><br /></div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" width="320" /></a></p><p><br /></p><p><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>NOVEMBER</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 36 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 25.8%</span> </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.5)</span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 44.4% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 10.9% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 5.9% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 7.5% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.1)</span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 5.5% </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(+0.1)</i></span><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for July:- 18.62% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.15)</span></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 23-29%, Labour between 40-49</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 9-14</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 36 polls</span> and on one occasion showed a 30% lead </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;">(<span> PeoplePolling 14 Nov</span>)</i>.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 12-30%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">If a General Election were held on these <b>NOVEMBER</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"> figures</span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">:-</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">and <u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html">using the new boundaries</a></b></span></u>, it would result in a Parliament of<b>*</b> L426 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+9)</span></i>, C145 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-12)</span></i>, SNP 28 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+9)</span></i> , LD27 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1)</span></i>, PC3 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i>, G1 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i>, NI18, Speaker</span><b style="background-color: white;"> </b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">1</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> with Labour having a majority of 206 </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 210.)</span><span> </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>(<b>*</b><span style="color: #444444;"><i>F</i></span></span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">igures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction)</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">.</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></div><div><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparisons</span></u></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: <br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(256 polls)<br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Polling figures for 2022 </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Polling figures for 2023 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><i>(344 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Con 27.2%, Lab 45.2%, LDem 10.3%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.1%, Oth 6.0%<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 17.99</span><span style="background-color: white;">%<br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Polling figures for November </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(36 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Con 25.8%, Lab 44.4%, LDem 10.9%, Grn 5.9%, Rfm 7.5%, Oth 5.5%<br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con November: 18.62%<br /><br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">November was overshadowed by the on-going and <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><u><a href="https://thepeoplesflag.blogspot.com/2023/11/the-predictions-of-old-bores-anorak.html">increasing conflict in Gaza</a></u></span></b> and the opening salvos of the Covid Inquiry. So far from the Covid Inquiry the only thing we have learnt is not one single senior scientist, politician or civil service official had the same opinion as to how Covid should have been dealt with. Just amongst the four senior scientist/medical people <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance, Johnathan van Tamm & Jenny Harries)</span><span>, one thought lockdown was about right, one opposed it, one thought it was late and one thought it was too early. One even opposed <i><span style="color: #444444;">(and still opposes) </span></i>the wearing of face coverings saying they provided no protection from Covid unless you wore three and because they gave a false sense of security to the wearer and as a result helped spread it faster. The Inquiry will last longer than 'Pickwick Papers' and cost over £100m and so far has achieved nothing of it's primary purpose - 'what lessons can be learned'. Quite possibly - as we are discovering, this is probably why most other advanced countries are not bothering with an Inquiry at all or if they did, they've already held it and it was very quick and achieved nothing <i><span style="color: #444444;">(2 days in one european country that was hit far worse than UK).</span></i><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div><b><u>SCOTLAND</u></b></div><div>A month watching the on-going self-immolation of the SNP - who it must be said, are holding up rather well.</div><div><br /></div><div>There were two Westminster polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</div><div><br /></div><div>SNP: 37.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+3.8)</span></i></div><div>SCon: 16.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.8)</i></span></div><div>SLab: 33.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.8)</i></span></div><div>SLD: 6.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.6)</span></i></div><div>Oth: 7.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4)</span></i></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>There was one Holyrood poll released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</div><div><br /></div><div>SNP: 41.0/28.0% (+5.4/+0.2)</div><div>SCon: 15.0/21.0% (-4.2/+5.0)</div><div>SLab: 27.0/27.0% (-3.4/-0.8)</div><div>SLD: 8.0/8.0% (nc/-0.6)</div><div>SGP: 4.0/9.0% (+0.2/-2.4)</div><div>Oth: 3.0/7.0% (+1.0/-1.4)</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>There were two IndyRef polls released during the month (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</div><div><br /></div><div>Yes: 48.5% (+4.3, No: 45.5% (-3.1), DK: 6.0% (-1.2)</div><div>(Yes: 51.6%, No: 48.4%)</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>(General Election 2019)</div><div>SNP: 45.0%</div><div>SCon: 25.1%</div><div>SLab: 18.6%</div><div>SLDem: 9.5%</div><div>Oth: 1.8%).</div><div><br /></div><div>(Holyrood Election 2022)</div><div>SNP: 47.7/40.3%</div><div>SCon: 21.9/23.5%</div><div>SLab: 21.6/17.9%</div><div>SLD: 6.9/5.1%</div><div>SGP: 1.3/8.1%</div><div>Oth: 0.6/3.4%).</div><div><br /></div><div>(IndyRef 2014)</div><div>Yes: 44.7%</div><div>No: 55.3%</div><div><br /></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westminster poll released during the month.</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(</i></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><i>figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-<br /></span><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;">Lab: 44.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0)</i><br /></span>Con: 24.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.5</i></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>)</i><br /></span>PC: 13.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+3.0)</i><br /></span>LDem: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i><br /></span>Rfm 9.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i><br /></span>Grn: 5.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i><br /></span></span><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 1.0% <i>(nc)<span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were one IndyRef poll released during the month<span style="color: #444444;">. </span></span><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 31%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+9.0)</span></i><i style="color: #444444;">, </i>No: 59% <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(+3.0),</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span>DK: 10%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><i>(-12.0)<br /></i></span><div>(Yes: 34.4%, No: 65.6%)</div><br /></span><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i>(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><br /></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /></b></b></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol. Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westmister poll released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 31.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+8.0)<br /></span></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 25.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-6.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 15.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-2.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UUP: 11.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SDLP: 9.0%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(-6.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">TUV: 5.0%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(did not stand in 2019, first polling since)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> (na)</span></span></div><div><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)</span></i></div></div><div><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></div></div></div><div style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Assembly polls released during the month.</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i>(General Election 2019)</i><br /></span></span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><span><i style="background-color: transparent;"><span>(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></i></span><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></div>(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)<br />(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)</i></span></span></span></div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small; font-style: normal;"></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small; font-style: normal;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div><span><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There was two polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 30.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0)</i></span></div><div>FF: 17.0 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.0)</i></span></div><div>FG: 20.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.5)</i></span></div><div>GP: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>LP: 3.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.5)</i></span></div><div>SD: 5.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.2)</i></span></div><div>PBP-S: 3.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.5)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 13.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.5)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i style="font-size: medium;">Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=</i><i>Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,</i></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= </i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)<br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="color: black;"><span><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: small; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;">Germany</u></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></u></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD <span>(Tories & Labour) </span>are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU. </span></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">AfD </b><span style="font-family: arial;">- 21.0% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> - 29.8% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.1)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP </b></span><span>- 5.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span><b><span style="color: #04ff00;">Grune</span></b> - 14.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5</span></i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b> - 15.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: arial;"><b>Die Linke</b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> - 4.1% </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(-0.3)</span><span><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(In UK terms, crudely put, </span></i><i><span><b>AfD</b></span><span><b> </b><span style="color: #444444;">are similar to BNP/UKIP, </span></span></i><i><span style="color: #01ffff;"><b>CDU</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>CSU</b></span></i><span><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span><span style="color: #444444;">is a coalition of Cameron</span><span style="color: #444444;">-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, </span></span></i></span><i><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), </span></i><i><span style="color: #04ff00;"><b>Grune</b> </span><span style="color: #444444;">are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),</span></i><i><span style="color: red;"><b>SPD</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"><b> </b>are similar to Blair's New Labour, </span><span style="color: #444444;">and </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Die Linke</b></span></i><span style="color: #444444;"><i> a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)</i><i style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span><div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi5nfrpfYmjKgbvcJ0hvNo9uGOO5-p9DXKqkVjSYpikLfpzVl4P5nYH0eXDdVq9vEbIkwg9C5L4iY3dKbtMd-f42ccez_PXbPKmbuW-VvBcWijCSMnviQZKOmLqOW4-vKmSTrAJNb6DFRGGuKT26rJ68jkwxNd1K5mnzk4aUyE_r2AvM5lU8dPs7D-6-ofk" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1472" data-original-width="2355" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi5nfrpfYmjKgbvcJ0hvNo9uGOO5-p9DXKqkVjSYpikLfpzVl4P5nYH0eXDdVq9vEbIkwg9C5L4iY3dKbtMd-f42ccez_PXbPKmbuW-VvBcWijCSMnviQZKOmLqOW4-vKmSTrAJNb6DFRGGuKT26rJ68jkwxNd1K5mnzk4aUyE_r2AvM5lU8dPs7D-6-ofk=w426-h266" width="426" /></a></div><br /><br /></b></div></div></div></div></span></div></div><i><br /><br /></i></span></span></div></div></span></span></span></div></span></span></div></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-size: small; font-style: italic;"><br style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal;" /></div></span></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-size: small; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></span></span></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-83260873880117564642023-11-23T20:45:00.008+00:002023-11-25T15:40:02.676+00:002023 DUTCH GENERAL ELECTION - RESULT<div style="text-align: left;"><div><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;">Early general elections were held in the Netherlands on 22 November 2023 </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(they should have been in 2025)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;"> to elect the members of the House of Representatioves </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(their version of our Commons)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;">. This followed years of political instability caused by a succession of Coalition governments falling </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(4 in the last 2 years alone - the joys of PR)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;">. General Elections are held every 4 years but in recent years Dutch governments have routinely collapsed with new ones formed between Elections. To the outsider, it seems Holland is actually run by the civil service while the politicians spend their time mostly at war with each other and doing little else.</span></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #202122; font-family: arial; font-size: 14px;">The Dutch House of Representatives consists of 150 seats with 76 needed for a majority. By tradition, the leader of the largest party is given 'first dibs' at forming a government and if succesful, with it's leader usually </span><i style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: #444444;">(but not always)</span></i><span style="color: #202122; font-family: arial; font-size: 14px;"> occupying the slot of Prime Minister - which is invariably reduced to little more than the umpire in squabbles between coalition members. </span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #202122; font-family: arial; font-size: 14px;">15 parties won seats under an open-list proportional representation system, using the D'Hondt method of allocation. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the </span><u style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hare_quota">Hare quota</a></b></span></u><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> </span><i style="color: #202122; font-family: arial; font-size: 14px;">(1 full seat)</i><span style="color: #202122; font-family: arial; font-size: 14px;"> in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%. Voters also have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota </span><i style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: #444444;">(effectively 1/4 of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes)</span></i><span style="color: #202122; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">, regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list. In other words it's tiresome bollocks that produces inherently unstable governments that are doomed to continually fall.</span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiMIbA9sIbOgUE7dpwRh9eYuiuRj-PuSJIfA2VsDWZ0WPOAbbf07QUnD8CfpI4XfYpr07G_PYrF1vjh79aIb1iSY3d4tPQCTPT9U8zdF0iW_fa0L-HaNpKdDEDLbPb7HvsmvQzU00B61NMTIwY265zhXfh5sQitYWeLG_NnKWYdiGph2P0wytUH3QIC4YBJ" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiMIbA9sIbOgUE7dpwRh9eYuiuRj-PuSJIfA2VsDWZ0WPOAbbf07QUnD8CfpI4XfYpr07G_PYrF1vjh79aIb1iSY3d4tPQCTPT9U8zdF0iW_fa0L-HaNpKdDEDLbPb7HvsmvQzU00B61NMTIwY265zhXfh5sQitYWeLG_NnKWYdiGph2P0wytUH3QIC4YBJ=w391-h260" width="391" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="background-color: white; color: #202122; font-family: arial; font-size: small;">Geert Wilders showing what he thinks of the established parties</b></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: #202122;">The party that came first was </span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geert_Wilders">Geert Wilders</a></b></span><span style="color: #202122;">' right-wing nationalist Party For Freedom </span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_for_Freedom">(PVV)</a></b></span><span style="color: #202122;">. Wilders - who is outspokenly anti-Islam, anti-EU and anti-immigrant, and also pro-Israel, pro-Putin and he believes in Judeo-Christianity being and remaining the dominant culture in Netherlands with 'incoming' cultures etc adapting to fit that, not the host nation adapting to fit them and getting rid of them if they won't. He also wants a binding referendum on the return of Capital Punishment, EU and ECHR be damned. He is on the 'death lists' of several Islamic groups and people plotting to kill him have been arrested in the past. At one point he was even banned from entering the UK his views are so out-spoken but he very publicly - along with a TV crew, came to UK anyway and labelled then Prime Minister Gordon Brown and then Home Secretary Jacqui Smith the "biggest cowards in Europe". </span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span style="color: #202122;">In succesive General Elections under his stewardship, PVV has gone from 3rd, to 2nd to now being the largest party in Dutch politics as the established 'old guard' parties have all but collapsed to be replaced by various niche splinter parties. He has an openly derisory opinion and attitude towards left wing politicians even if they are the Prime Ministers of their relevant countries. <br /><br />For this election, he marginlly watered-down his usual hard-line stance, abandoning his total ban on Islam and teh closure of all mosques in favour of a more conciliatory approach of banning anymore mosques, banning the use of arabic in mosques and madrassas and making islam in Holland secularise by law. This actually gained him some support amongst younger second-generation muslim voters who are desperate to westernise but are being prevented from doing so by their families, elders and mosques.</span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh515MrHo3FEUGNWVSpAHbsH3kGC1Uw87T3H7DGj-_iU8t9l721Hvfufr16w61en1VMTAvjcvNHUnyb3VD7p8gwdfSM9nOO0JeSzvP_vfCaLimA1LUJGoKGSs8eJUSJ_ioKR3b5go6xmIE5mb0_9OEiZfZCf6o9hKAC23hz45LRcRew_kOwU2A_az3cPFTu/s389/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="389" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh515MrHo3FEUGNWVSpAHbsH3kGC1Uw87T3H7DGj-_iU8t9l721Hvfufr16w61en1VMTAvjcvNHUnyb3VD7p8gwdfSM9nOO0JeSzvP_vfCaLimA1LUJGoKGSs8eJUSJ_ioKR3b5go6xmIE5mb0_9OEiZfZCf6o9hKAC23hz45LRcRew_kOwU2A_az3cPFTu/w443-h209/Untitled.png" width="443" /></a></div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #202122; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6oGBsLb-GP6c4Zle6DoqByL8NQkpcKUxp2HVilOL-nNbwMVlhEHTkNqhdRUtIAkWMImOPT7IveauKU3fY33uUJoLYlQ7SQBVTfCLtRoMXBH6wg2TOl7lFxPKU7HJ1MEOR17xKmLLb-QDPHLgGoVG-jKpQ2CW_JIQomTze7hYBJYoHh6ACjX7DCb_2kVHD" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="333" data-original-width="258" height="369" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6oGBsLb-GP6c4Zle6DoqByL8NQkpcKUxp2HVilOL-nNbwMVlhEHTkNqhdRUtIAkWMImOPT7IveauKU3fY33uUJoLYlQ7SQBVTfCLtRoMXBH6wg2TOl7lFxPKU7HJ1MEOR17xKmLLb-QDPHLgGoVG-jKpQ2CW_JIQomTze7hYBJYoHh6ACjX7DCb_2kVHD=w286-h369" width="286" /></a></div><span style="color: #444444;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">(GL-PVDA is already a coalition between the Green Party and </span></i></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">their</span></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;">v</span></i></span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">ersion of the Labour Party in an agreement not to stand against each other)</span></i></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div style="color: #202122; text-align: left;">Classing parties by the UK Left-Cente-Right method is no indication to where they will finally end up in a Coalition. Some parties on one side would rather work with parties on the other side than be in a coalition with other particular parties of similar ideology. For example VVD won't go into coalition with PVV unless Wilders agrees not to be Prime Minister. Let the horse trading begin!!</div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #202122; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="color: #202122; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjVWzczhTo-eOCWj2-b13tMBWfulj85p5cuq2kB62Jv4NCXdtYV_Dpp-sX4Dsj5BoocZJTLsWhpSJTa6FxwTE1Yz5jQzIQ0LyGSp8hCGA2C3ifHlRtU-14XZs5OE6keq5O-pZDBW3EYLFCR-xo437DmBj0srzDBLTzFRNidnw5XqLI0g19b2lbCqQgL9Waj" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="190" data-original-width="265" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjVWzczhTo-eOCWj2-b13tMBWfulj85p5cuq2kB62Jv4NCXdtYV_Dpp-sX4Dsj5BoocZJTLsWhpSJTa6FxwTE1Yz5jQzIQ0LyGSp8hCGA2C3ifHlRtU-14XZs5OE6keq5O-pZDBW3EYLFCR-xo437DmBj0srzDBLTzFRNidnw5XqLI0g19b2lbCqQgL9Waj=w483-h346" width="483" /></a></div><br /><br /></div></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #202122;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #202122;"><br /><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></div></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-8131781468548232472023-11-11T22:54:00.011+00:002023-11-16T14:04:01.238+00:00THE PREDICTIONS OF OLD BORE'S KNACKER-SACK<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyGIpXXyKZjPtmNHsnRSrrGpPhr_CXAbdibxfR9BC-Edf3o3lFaLtcaxn3iZQtope12Ytd0ScKy0pXDwyr4czb0hVqWE89m7roGuf1SLaJuM9CTdOZiYtcBYmLItx1wtE_A85tgdEfzPJ5Wd02AVbxBINDV5Y9-_Fa_TtqohH_Z0dDE6bm3QSMxZmB5_aY/s253/download.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="253" data-original-width="199" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyGIpXXyKZjPtmNHsnRSrrGpPhr_CXAbdibxfR9BC-Edf3o3lFaLtcaxn3iZQtope12Ytd0ScKy0pXDwyr4czb0hVqWE89m7roGuf1SLaJuM9CTdOZiYtcBYmLItx1wtE_A85tgdEfzPJ5Wd02AVbxBINDV5Y9-_Fa_TtqohH_Z0dDE6bm3QSMxZmB5_aY/w263-h334/download.jpeg" width="263" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><br />After casting runes, studying the entrails of disembowelled goats, gazing at the remains of beer in the bottom of the glass, studying my swirling balls, tossing coins etc, herewith my predictions for the developments and outcome of the current Middle East conflict over the next 3 years or so - and it's grim.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Firstly, people have got to accept that this is only the start. This is a 'trigger point' and it is going to cascade from Gaza and will quickly get out of control once it does. And under-pining it is the rock-solid fact that no matter what, the USA will not let Israel lose, no matter what neither Israel nor USA will allow Iran to develop 'the bomb' and no matter what, islamist terror groups will never stop attacking Israel. These are immutable rock-solid facts that cannot be changed and will not be changed and they dictate how everything else unfolds.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There is going to be a massive refugee crisis as the people of Gaza flood into Egypt whether the Egyptians want them or not. Like 1.5m+, very quickly and over the next few months, just from Gaza alone. Egypt will do nothing to help and will be quite happy to let them rot in the Sinai - it does not want the Palestinians. It regards them as radicalised trouble. It will turn it's back and throw it at the UN which will not be able to cope. Don't think that the current activity around Gaza City and northern Gaza is the end - it isn't. Once it has finished, Israel will do the same to central Gaza and finally southern Gaza - it has no option. Most of the strip's housing will be destroyed. There will be no mains water, no sewage, no treatment plants, no electricity powerstations, etc etc etc. It will all have been destroyed. Not broken - destroyed. There will be nothing left for the Gazans to return to except rubble and squalor and if they did return, it will be decades before it is functioning again. So they will leave.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The West Bank will disintegrate next. HAMAS will agitate and create problems there & Israel will launch ever-increasing actions into there and eventually similar will happen as happened to Gaza, with that population in turn fleeing to Jordan - and just like Egypt, Jordan doesn't want them. The population of West Bank is twice that of Gaza so expect another 2.5m or so to not go home. <br /><br />The end result in both cases will be those that are young enough and strong enough will head for Europe. Hundreds & hundreds of thousands of mostly young males, who are heavily radicalised, who hate the west and believe fervently in the expansion of radical islam. And virtually all of them have been doing weapon training to one degree or other since they were 10 years old.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">At that point the oil price will start to increase.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Europe initially will be stupidly welcoming - but the pace with which this happens, and the type of person coming means that very quickly Europe will have no option other than to close it's borders and pull up the draw-bridge, creating resentment with the islamic populations already resident in continental Europe.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And then Lebanon will start - because a lot of people who left northern Gaza will have headed there, further destabilising what is already a nutters paradise, leading inevitably to further Israeli action which will inevitably draw in Iran, Syria and the Iraqi militias even further, which in turn will lead to western troops havng no option other than to enter onto the ground to protect countries like Saudi Arabia and also to protect the canal, Hormuz and the oil-fields.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And the price of oil will accelerate faster.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">At some point, Israel - with the assistance of the USA, will attack the Iranian nuclear facilities and rocket sites. Neither Israel nor the USA have any option. Iran cannot be allowed to develop a viable nuclear device - they already have large missiles - large enough to carry a warhead and large enough to reach any capital in Europe. They already have the capability to produce fissile material they just haven't yet grasped the miniaturisation proces - but there are Russian and North Korean scientsts there helping them to do just that. This will be a major major air strike because of the depth of the Iranian facilities and it is going to cause significant damage to Iran because a lot of these facilities are deep underneath Iranian cities. And Iran will not take this lying down.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And the price of oil will go sky-high and collapse the west's economies</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There are going to be a lot more terrorist attacks right across Europe, including the UK, over the next few years - some bigger than we have ever experienced before. Resentment and outright hatred of the west by islamist extremists, including the thousands already enbedded across Europe from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan etc, will increase dramatically.<br /><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">This will have to be met with ever-increasing police powers and ever-increasing security restrictions on travel for ordinary people. Artificial Intelligence will be rapidly rolled out in background policing. The 2024 Paris Olympics will be a prime terrorist target.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Rioting in immigrant muslim areas - such as the UK's northern mill towns, the Paris suburbs, Berlin, Brussels, Rotterdam, Madrid, Naples, Rome etc is going to break out more frequently and increase significantly - worse than you have seen before, leading to growing resentment and demands for a clamp-down by the indiginous population and non-muslim immigrants, which in turn increases the isolation and counter-reaction by the muslim communities who will become ripe for exploitation and further radicalisation by extremists. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There will be an explosion in growth for far-Right parties right across europe. Not so much of a problem in UK because of our first-past-the-post voting system which is designed to keep politics in UK stable and roughly centrist no matter who is in power, but in countries using PR-type voting systems this will create huge problems and it will seriously disrupt the EU as the balance of powers shifts dramatically and swiftly.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Facial recognition will become common place, possibly embedded in things such as CCTV (even in supermarkets), traffic cameras and security cameras in airports, ports, rail stations, motorway services etc etc as european governments try to control what is going on and covering your face in public will becomne illegal. Initially the public will be hostile but as the terrorist attacks increase in frequency and savagery the public will swing to demanding it - fear is a wonderful motivator and being a liberal is seen as a weakness by terrorists and the liberal-west as an easy target.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">The Middle East is going to slowly fall apart in a war seemingly without end that will see western troops once again taking an active combat role on the ground. It will eventually - probably in 3-4 years time at least, take Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan - in conjunction with Israel, USA and NATO, all working together to a common purpose to sort this out and bring it to an end - but not until they all agree on what that common purpose is and how it should be done.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">And all the while, China will be watching - with one eye on Taiwan.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwq1kTR2IfsSpGoUxTR4QRLIQCGqEe3ZpWCiWpAgTXrAeSv_cr3aFnfh0FIQeTz-9XWgf1VfeClcRH_zU4CFKIFLKpoMFKrjJsj2twYC54E-PGch3cVKpu2R61zzPX3UWonKQCoDZdWXP5VoPdHXF_Visv-TjGtDBKhw9_kevOlvsmm_LxXnbP52hTZBQf" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="850" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwq1kTR2IfsSpGoUxTR4QRLIQCGqEe3ZpWCiWpAgTXrAeSv_cr3aFnfh0FIQeTz-9XWgf1VfeClcRH_zU4CFKIFLKpoMFKrjJsj2twYC54E-PGch3cVKpu2R61zzPX3UWonKQCoDZdWXP5VoPdHXF_Visv-TjGtDBKhw9_kevOlvsmm_LxXnbP52hTZBQf=w501-h236" width="501" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /></span></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-88542917551614191912023-11-02T13:34:00.539+00:002023-12-03T12:19:33.925+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR OCTOBER 2023<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXlwHxtiiE0mL5SX4v7sUZjRbCsHVsgtGFnscj5kQODeHLW9Sv7MYALN87JfHiof6whb_ml5idRn4r5o9yidCe9AAZm1VcyeTd7EjTfcHpSVCg_2MZHE_Pr7qQ2lXP2ouQazZQh4oM-Zd6lZVq1qvjUMb2NB-zx5aEhJ7EN4AeJP9Jr6TRoGAKn5LkKDhI/s232/OCTOBER.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="232" data-original-width="211" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXlwHxtiiE0mL5SX4v7sUZjRbCsHVsgtGFnscj5kQODeHLW9Sv7MYALN87JfHiof6whb_ml5idRn4r5o9yidCe9AAZm1VcyeTd7EjTfcHpSVCg_2MZHE_Pr7qQ2lXP2ouQazZQh4oM-Zd6lZVq1qvjUMb2NB-zx5aEhJ7EN4AeJP9Jr6TRoGAKn5LkKDhI/s1600/OCTOBER.png" width="211" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaLJcS4j2Ae7NPBiWIV1j0P9P5_v40fghpvYH1IRW-0GKv-hcM7rGERsOIwbGi5pXMf0ksxED52CTIAQnlelkNF2DdEAFNJ9gXVpjRvjDmIDFOSaYoxz6V-qyDN1yskLf2aGDDoRNhTQGXkJxgdH-v1dfcuzm4Gk-m-E-cyuZb8cvFiUPz8pCyl60QrVBl/s235/YEAR.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="235" data-original-width="193" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaLJcS4j2Ae7NPBiWIV1j0P9P5_v40fghpvYH1IRW-0GKv-hcM7rGERsOIwbGi5pXMf0ksxED52CTIAQnlelkNF2DdEAFNJ9gXVpjRvjDmIDFOSaYoxz6V-qyDN1yskLf2aGDDoRNhTQGXkJxgdH-v1dfcuzm4Gk-m-E-cyuZb8cvFiUPz8pCyl60QrVBl/s1600/YEAR.png" width="193" /></a></div><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" width="320" /></a></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>OCTOBER</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 36 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.3%</span> </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2)</span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 44.7% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 10.9% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 5.4% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 6.4% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2)</span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 5.4% </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(-0.2)</i></span><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for July:- 17.47% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.56)</span></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 24-30%, Labour between 42-49</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 9-13</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 36 polls</span> and on one occasion showed a 28% lead </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;">(PeoplePolling, 23 Oct)</i>.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 13-28%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">If a General Election were held on these <b>OCTOBER</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"> figures</span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">:-</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">and <u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html">using the new boundaries</a></b></span></u>, it would result in a Parliament of<b>*</b> L428 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2)</span></i>, C157 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-3)</span></i>, SNP19 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-8)</span></i> , LD26 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2)</span></i>, PC3 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i>, G1 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i>, NI18, Speaker</span><b style="background-color: white;"> </b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">1</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> with Labour having a majority of 202 </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 205.)</span><span> </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>(<b>*</b><span style="color: #444444;"><i>F</i></span></span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">igures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction)</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">.</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></div><div><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparisons</span></u></b><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: <br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(256 polls)<br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Polling figures for 2022 </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Polling figures for 2023 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><i>(308 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Con 27.2%, Lab 45.3%, LDem 10.2%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 6.0%, Oth 6.1%<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.08</span><span style="background-color: white;">%<br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Polling figures for October </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(36 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Con 27.2%, Lab 44.7%, LDem 10.9%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 6.4%, Oth 5.4%<br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con October: 17.47%<br /><br /><br />October saw the annual party conferences - with neither side really saying very much as those were almost certainly the last party conferences before the next General Election. Two by-Elections took place in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire. Both taken by Labour but could have been held by the Tories if Reform had not stood. The impact of Reform and the very low turn-outs caused by the Tory vote 'staying home' made Labour's victories look significantly better than the under-lying reality.<br /><br />The tragic terrorist attack by <b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas">HAMAS</a></span></u></b> in Israel on October 7th and the on-going hostage crisis understandably became and remains the main event dominating the news globally as does the understandable and predictable response by the Israelis - who intend this - the fifth war against HAMAS, to be the final one. </span></div><div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /></span></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br /></span></span><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div></span></span></span><div style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">A month dominated by the <b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rutherglen_and_Hamilton_West_by-election">Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-Election</a></span></u></b> which Labour took from the SNP on a very poor turn-out of 37.2% and the First Minister's family being trapped in Gaza City.<br /><br /></div></span></span></span><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">There were five Westminster polls released during the month </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 33.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.3)<br /></span></i>SCon: 19.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+4.3)<br /></span></i>SLab: 33.8% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.8)<br /></i></span>SLD: 6.6% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">.9)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Oth: 6.6% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.9)</span></i></div></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; font-family: arial;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were two Holyrood polls released during the month <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 35.6/27.8%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;">(-4.4/-1.2)</span></i><br />SCon: 19.2/16.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+3.2/-+0.5)</span></i><br />SLab: 30.4/27.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.4/+0.3)</span></i><br />SLD: 8.0/8.6%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (nc/-+0.1)</i></span><br />SGP: 3.8/11.4%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+0.8/-1.1)</span></i><br />Oth: 2.0/8.4% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.0/+1.4)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><br /></div></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were five IndyRef polls released during the month </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span></span></span></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 44.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.9<span><span>)</span></span></span></i>, No: 48.6% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.9),</span></i> DK: 7.2% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-4.8)</i></span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 47.6%, No: 52.4%)</span></div></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i><br /><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">(IndyRef 2014)</i><br /><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Yes: 44.7%</i><br /><span><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">No: 55.3%</i></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westminster poll released during the month.</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(</i></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><i>figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-<br /></span><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;">Lab: 46.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i><br /></span>Con: 26.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+5.5</i></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>)</i><br /></span>PC: 10.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i><br /></span>LDem: 3.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-4.0)</i><br /></span>Rfm 10.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.5)</i><br /></span>Grn: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.5)</i><br /></span></span><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 1.0% <i>(0.5)<span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.</span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">(</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></span></i><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><br /></div></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no IndyRef polls released during the month<span style="color: #444444;">. </span></span><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 22%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-11)</span></i><i style="color: #444444;">, </i>No: 56% <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(+3.0),</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span>DK: 22%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><i>(+8.0)<br /></i></span><div>(Yes: 28.2%, No: 71.8%)</div><br /></span><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i>(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><br /></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /></b></b></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol. Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during the month.</span></div></div></div></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There was</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> one Assembly poll released during the month, first preference as shown. </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">(</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 31.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 28.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (+2.0)<br /></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 16.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (+1.0)<br /></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;">UUP: 8.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"> (-2.0)<br /></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;">SDLP:</span><span style="color: black;"><span> </span>6.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(nc)<br /></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;">TUV: 4.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"><i> </i><i>(-1.0)<br /></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;">S-PBP: 1.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black;">Oth: 6.0%</span><span style="color: #444444;"> <i>(-nc)</i></span></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 42%, Nationalist 41%)</span></i></div><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i>(General Election 2019)</i><br /></span></span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><span><i style="background-color: transparent;"><span>(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></i></span><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></div>(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)<br />(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)</i></span></span></span></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one poll released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 32.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.2)</i></span></div><div>FF: 15.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.4)</i></span></div><div>FG: 21.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.2)</i></span></div><div>GP: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.2)</i></span></div><div>LP: 5.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.2)</i></span></div><div>SD: 6.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.2)</i></span></div><div>PBP-S: 3.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.8) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 12.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.4)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=</i><i>Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,</i></span></span></div><div><span style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><i>SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= </i></span><i style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #444444;">People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)<br /></span></i><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: small;"><span><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div></div></div></div></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Food inflation rates, September 2023 (published in October).</u></b></span></div></div><div style="font-size: small;"><br /></div></div></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Food inflation continues to fall across most of the european area at various speeds dependent on background factors such as levels of import, predominant type of diet, energy sources and method of calculation <i><span style="color: #444444;">(it differs markedly between countries).</span> </i>Unless there is another 'black swan' event <i><span style="color: #444444;">(such as an all out war in the middle east)</span></i>, CPI inflation now appears to be beaten and should drop rapidly to a more sustainable 2-3% level as base interest rates take effect <i><span style="color: #444444;">(there is about a 6 month lag between the alteration of the rate and the effect it actually has on the ground by changing consumer activity. People wrongly assume it's fairly rapid - but it isn't. What is clear in retrospect is the Bank of England took to long to act and it's raises have been too cautious).</span></i><br /><br /><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Turkey 68.9% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+6.2)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Hungary 13.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-4.7)</span></i><br />Serbia 14.4% <span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.5)<br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Icelan</span>d 12.3% <i style="background-color: transparent; color: #444444;">(-0.1)</i><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span><b>United Kingdom 12.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.5)</span></i></b> <span style="font-size: x-small;">⬅️</span></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Belgium 11.4% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.0)</span></i><br />Bulgaria 10.5% <span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.9)<br /></span></i>Spain 10.5% <span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i>Croatia 10.4% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span>Romania 10.4% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.5)</span></i><br />Poland 10.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.4)<br /></span></i>Malta 9.9%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> <span>(-0.8)<br /></span></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;">Cyprus 9.7%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(<i>-0.3)</i></span><br />Slovakia 9.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.3)</span></i></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Estonia 9.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.2.) <br /></span></i>France 9.6% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">European Union </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(as a whole)</span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"> 9.4% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.3)</span></i></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Greece 9.4% </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(-1.2)<br /></i><span style="color: black;">Netherlands 9.3% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3)</span></i><i><br /></i><span style="color: black;">European Union </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(euro area only)</span></i><span><span style="color: black;"> 9.1% </span><i>(-1.0)<br /></i></span><span style="color: black;">Luxembourg 8.9% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-nc)</span></i><i><br /></i><span style="color: black;">Italy 8.5% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.2)<br /></span></i><span style="color: black;">Austria 8.4% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.2)</span></i><span style="color: black;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i>Albania 8.3% <i><span style="color: red;">(+1.4)</span></i><br />Lithuania 8.3% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.4)<br /><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Moldova 8.2% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.4)<br /></span></i><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;">Faroe Islands 8.0% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.3)</span></i><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Ireland 7.8% </span>(-0.4)</span></i></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Germany 7.7%</span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.4)<br /></span></i><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Sweden 7.7% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.3)</span></i></span></i></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Montenegro 7.6% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.9<span>)</span></span></i></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Norway 7.4% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.6)<br /></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;">Portugal 6.4% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)</span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;">Bosnia 6.2% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.8)<br /></span></i><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Czech Republic 6.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.9)</span></i></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black;">Ukraine 5.8% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.6)</span></i><br /><span style="color: black;">Latvia 5.7% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.5)<br /></span></i><span style="color: black;">Kosovo 5.5% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i></span></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black;">Denmark 5.0% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i><span style="color: black;">Russia 4.9% </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: red;">(+1.3)</span> </i></span></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Finland 4.6% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.2)</span></i></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Switzerland 3.8% </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Belorus 2.4% </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(-1.0)</i></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Macedonia </span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;">-1.8%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.1)</span></i></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small; font-style: italic;">(Source: Trading Economics Oct 2023)</span></span></div></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"></span></span></div></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></b></span></span></div></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;">Germany</u></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></u></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD <i style="color: #444444;">(Tories & Labour) </i>are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU. This is evidenced by the SPD's continued reluctance to send missiles to Ukraine and more importantly, their recent suggestions that they may re-impose hard borders on the east of their country to try and stem the flow of illegals immigrants entering - something which is starting to become a massive red-hot political issue not just in Germany, but across the entire EU as it starts to panic about the sheer scale of what is slowly moving northwards in Africa & the Middle East. As we go to print, Germany - just like Denmark, is now in negotiations with Rwanda to start deporting illegal immigrants to there for processing.</span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">AfD </b><span style="font-family: arial;">- 21.0% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> - 28.7% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.8)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP </b></span><span>- 5.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span><b><span style="color: #04ff00;">Grune</span></b> - 13.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5</span></i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b> - 16.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.1)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: arial;"><b>Die Linke</b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> - 4.4% </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(-0.2)</span><span><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(In UK terms, simply put, </span></i><i><span><b>AfD</b></span><span><b> </b><span style="color: #444444;">are similar to BNP/UKIP, </span></span></i><i><span style="color: #01ffff;"><b>CDU</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>CSU</b></span></i><span><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span><span style="color: #444444;">is a coalition of Cameron</span><span style="color: #444444;">-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, </span></span></i></span><i><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), </span></i><i><span style="color: #04ff00;"><b>Grune</b> </span><span style="color: #444444;">are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),</span></i><i><span style="color: red;"><b>SPD</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"><b> </b>are similar to Blair's New Labour, </span><span style="color: #444444;">and </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Die Linke</b></span></i><span style="color: #444444;"><i> a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)</i></span></span></div></div></span></span></span></div></span></span></div></span></span></div><div><br style="background-color: white;" /></div></div></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dx9VxVeW8tnqbisXBSuQjvXCBqDBR7vd8QayPGKkHeXBssCblTFv-5ptHYPkdEQ_arRgacjBt_ywy2i8Q530Q' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p></p>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-61870864490636890792023-10-24T17:03:00.006+01:002023-10-25T10:47:28.232+01:002023 POLISH GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS<div style="text-align: left;"> <span style="font-family: arial;">The Polish General Election was held on Sunday 15 Oct 2023, as per the terms of the Polish Consitution. All seats in both the 460 seat lower house (<b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sejm">Sejm</a></span></b>) and 100 seat upper house (<b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_of_Poland">Senate</a></span></b>) were voted for.<br /><br />The process of election for the 460 seat Sejm is through party-list proportional representation via the <b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%27Hondt_method#:~:text=The%20D'Hondt%20method%2C%20also,class%20of%20highest%2Daverages%20methods."><span style="color: #2b00fe;">D'Hond</span>t</a></b> method in multi-seat constituencies, with a 5% threshold for single party (KW) and citizen committees (KWW) and an 8% threshold for coalitions (KKW). National minority communities, such as the German minority, are waived from the requirement of accomplishing a nation-wide 5% result, and only need to do so in their electoral constituency, in this specific case Opole.<br /><br />Senators are elected by first-past-the-post method in 100 constituencies. Most of the opposition (Civic Coalition, New Left and Third Way) signed a so-called senate pact, under which the parties agreed to enter one commonly accepted candidate in each district.This strategy has previously granted them 51 seats despite losing the Sejm in order to achieve.<br /><br />The Polish system is completely alien to the UK system in that parties don't stand as parties as such and instead stand as groups of parties. Basically the eventual winners are a Coalition of Coalitions and nobody who voted gets what they voted for whatsoever. You might vote for a party, see it win seats and within weeks either cease to exist and become part of another party, switch from one group to another etc etc. It's also not unusual to find left wing parties allied to right wing groupings etc etc as regional interests and personalities play a major part, often way above particular left-right ideaologies. Independents can be aligned within a group, or can be independent independents. Confused yet? Then, after the results the various groups then try to ally with other groups - or even get individual parties to switch from other groups to theirs in order to try and cobble together some form of patch-work quilt Coalition government. It's basically a 'dog's dinner' and goes down hill from there as the trading begins. The joys of PR.<br /><br />The results in the all important Sejm saw the ruling 'United Right' grouping fronted by the 'Truth and Justice' party lose their majority although they remain the largest single group, while the opposition groupings - with the largest being Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk, achieved 54% combined, but not all of those would prefer working with Tusk as opposed to Kaczyński. Some will switch groups should the group they are in decide to ally with the wrong one out of Tusk/Kaczyński. Surprisingly the turn-out was a very healthy 74.4% so one can only assume the Poles find this chaos amusing.<br /><br />At the time of writing, a new government has yet to be formed. Under Polish law, if a government cannot be formed within 30 days a fresh election is called.<br /><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u>RESULTS FOR THE 460 SEAT SEJM <i><span style="color: #444444;">(Lower House ie our Commons)</span></i></u></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiME_RZ8__fgp3n-998jKZiq5xvk3H_idNSLEvAMAVqgCGf6CGBWTlsaInKJz5Va4HMSpXMuwBXzVJsnt2ROOhaGCbSfeiXQ0-M-rZEClEZlb4GOvWHMtZKfmSwFYqtAYyfXtA0qnIZj4XS0t-uCoNMwZuYIRLMWMbc5K8i8L7B7PBB3yZoZg_Nliptgbyp/s595/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiME_RZ8__fgp3n-998jKZiq5xvk3H_idNSLEvAMAVqgCGf6CGBWTlsaInKJz5Va4HMSpXMuwBXzVJsnt2ROOhaGCbSfeiXQ0-M-rZEClEZlb4GOvWHMtZKfmSwFYqtAYyfXtA0qnIZj4XS0t-uCoNMwZuYIRLMWMbc5K8i8L7B7PBB3yZoZg_Nliptgbyp/s595/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="371" height="576" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7O6R3tmljW-eJyeJk22OD_wviPui9h5uJadhdI1PgDUWEvx5nXjyVkv1lYN09Tz65FlKs6dFmiHOAJwVU5_hbnfvL0wvs0Pea7RB66AHMJLNGrFvadxf4TMoQLbWVYUXZ9dR_ZNnLsvPFCBg0C9w2XnOY35S3Dcawopkm7tk4mH4Y7qXq9w5LfqiUb0Zr/w321-h576/Untitled.png" width="321" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiME_RZ8__fgp3n-998jKZiq5xvk3H_idNSLEvAMAVqgCGf6CGBWTlsaInKJz5Va4HMSpXMuwBXzVJsnt2ROOhaGCbSfeiXQ0-M-rZEClEZlb4GOvWHMtZKfmSwFYqtAYyfXtA0qnIZj4XS0t-uCoNMwZuYIRLMWMbc5K8i8L7B7PBB3yZoZg_Nliptgbyp/s595/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiME_RZ8__fgp3n-998jKZiq5xvk3H_idNSLEvAMAVqgCGf6CGBWTlsaInKJz5Va4HMSpXMuwBXzVJsnt2ROOhaGCbSfeiXQ0-M-rZEClEZlb4GOvWHMtZKfmSwFYqtAYyfXtA0qnIZj4XS0t-uCoNMwZuYIRLMWMbc5K8i8L7B7PBB3yZoZg_Nliptgbyp/s595/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiME_RZ8__fgp3n-998jKZiq5xvk3H_idNSLEvAMAVqgCGf6CGBWTlsaInKJz5Va4HMSpXMuwBXzVJsnt2ROOhaGCbSfeiXQ0-M-rZEClEZlb4GOvWHMtZKfmSwFYqtAYyfXtA0qnIZj4XS0t-uCoNMwZuYIRLMWMbc5K8i8L7B7PBB3yZoZg_Nliptgbyp/s595/Untitled.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div><b style="color: black;"><u>RESULTS FOR THE 100 SEAT SENATE <i><span style="color: #444444;">(Upper House ie our Lords)</span></i></u></b></div></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBZ9-ghgEvPKPilv7875MVAhiuPklIskf7QXEdiUgJQJPhbfztwuMV-bBFsGJaE4XXrNgnZqIY67Z8XcO5IH-Vfvd2tW1O3Qu7MCyphAU28dSacyPq0Wo3fXlAYzA_l1r81sxGmfR13hWgBw6KLm44p2qpqDlmATz568ahG20jXWEPoZVJAJDmxxfeWClL" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="403" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhBZ9-ghgEvPKPilv7875MVAhiuPklIskf7QXEdiUgJQJPhbfztwuMV-bBFsGJaE4XXrNgnZqIY67Z8XcO5IH-Vfvd2tW1O3Qu7MCyphAU28dSacyPq0Wo3fXlAYzA_l1r81sxGmfR13hWgBw6KLm44p2qpqDlmATz568ahG20jXWEPoZVJAJDmxxfeWClL=w322-h404" width="322" /></a></div><br /> </div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrLJdu6w8guPyNe7EVuFOgi8c-QuvVkblYjPEOq30egSDKXVuVU3vj57aLXizCY0V44iC5GWXuY3qZYX--QemDTIlPqf89seuQeATD1ValP5DVHsGAUD0Qg4UVMwYds23EI0FQY1n_L2GgThVKJI9Ty2mpMfBNvDzFYgS-GCKfZSvjl9Kr1qzhV5YfQ-Fv" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="665" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrLJdu6w8guPyNe7EVuFOgi8c-QuvVkblYjPEOq30egSDKXVuVU3vj57aLXizCY0V44iC5GWXuY3qZYX--QemDTIlPqf89seuQeATD1ValP5DVHsGAUD0Qg4UVMwYds23EI0FQY1n_L2GgThVKJI9Ty2mpMfBNvDzFYgS-GCKfZSvjl9Kr1qzhV5YfQ-Fv" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /></div></span></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-8576093999252256752023-10-05T13:56:00.005+01:002023-12-02T11:30:13.306+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR SEPTEMBER 2023<p style="text-align: center;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcjzqsfEzvZf4lxVHutyHqyZJ89NZDXqF-jsNyQ31J7QwDm4eEQBZzhoInNE6NMDhWRk-XUiqrDE0w6zjBbSHvsDkKW-eTbaxHDziaolSyhInoRq7dzFlj4dMD3tPZKGx7InX_jrIxIAwwbllU8ksIx2J0urNCA4q2X-iSHL0rMboRCsiZ7wiX4akUY5Jt/s230/september.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="230" data-original-width="228" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcjzqsfEzvZf4lxVHutyHqyZJ89NZDXqF-jsNyQ31J7QwDm4eEQBZzhoInNE6NMDhWRk-XUiqrDE0w6zjBbSHvsDkKW-eTbaxHDziaolSyhInoRq7dzFlj4dMD3tPZKGx7InX_jrIxIAwwbllU8ksIx2J0urNCA4q2X-iSHL0rMboRCsiZ7wiX4akUY5Jt/s1600/september.png" width="228" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIsjGnzpFdv64S8QJ496z0wY9RW5wP0wpvNHEOjSH86JoGB1AHiLy0HAR1IEA5Zjns5wKC-hWju0Gr97QK8XU2XrmSBBrf7m_pbpUQyAGQezIus8EoFhy6qtEHAIsn75QMxTY2I-08I7YFclVXfY9tSC8RQuB6pWpHRXFQvUXFi7HP8P1gUmlRXD-UK46C/s230/YTD.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="230" data-original-width="192" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIsjGnzpFdv64S8QJ496z0wY9RW5wP0wpvNHEOjSH86JoGB1AHiLy0HAR1IEA5Zjns5wKC-hWju0Gr97QK8XU2XrmSBBrf7m_pbpUQyAGQezIus8EoFhy6qtEHAIsn75QMxTY2I-08I7YFclVXfY9tSC8RQuB6pWpHRXFQvUXFi7HP8P1gUmlRXD-UK46C/s1600/YTD.png" width="192" /></a></div></div></div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" width="320" /></a></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>SEPTEMBER</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 28 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;">Con 27.1% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 44.2% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.4) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 11.2 </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 5.7% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 6.2% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 5.6% </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(+0.3)</i></span><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for July:- 16.91% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.19)</span></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 23-30%, Labour between 39-47</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 9-14</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in 27 of the 28 polls</span> and on one occasion showed a 24% lead </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;">(DeltaPoll, 11-15 Sep)</i>.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 10-24%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">If a General Election were held on these <b>SEPTEMBER</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"> figures</span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">:-</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">and <u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html">using the new boundaries</a></b></span></u>, it would result in a Parliament of<b>*</b> L417 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-5)</span></i>, C160 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+4)</span></i>, SNP27 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1)</span></i> , LD24 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i>, PC3 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i>, G1 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i>, NI18, Speaker</span><b style="background-color: white;"> </b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">1</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> with Labour having a majority of 184 </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein, included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 187.)</span><span> </span></span></div></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>(<b>*</b><span style="color: #444444;"><i>F</i></span></span></span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">igures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction)</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">.</span></div></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparisons</span></u></b><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: </span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(256 polls)</i></span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2022 </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(330 polls)</i></span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2023 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(244 polls)</i></span><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Con 27.2%, Lab 45.4%, LDem 10.1%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 5.9%, Oth 6.1%</span><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">15</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">%</span><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Polling figures for September </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>( 28 polls)</i></span><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Con 27.1%, Lab 44.2%, LDem 11.2%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 6.2%, Oth 5.6%</span><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="background-color: white;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con September: 16.91%</span></div></div></div><p style="background-color: white;"></p><div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />September was a strange month in UK politics with everyone more concerned with their forthcoming party conferences than actually running the country or opposing the government of the day. Both the main parties flitted back and to from showing a bit of ankle to being all coy over a range of issues from HS2, boat-crossers, ECHR, shoplifters and the charitable status of public schools <i style="color: #444444;">(for any US readers, a public school in the UK is private. What you call public schools we refer to as state schools)</i>, inflation continues to fall, doctors & trains continue to strike and the Ukraine war rumbles on.<br /><br />The government pulled the trigger for the next General Election <i><span style="color: #444444;">(due no later than 28 Jan 2025)</span></i> by watering-down and slowing down 'Net Zero', forcing Labour to U-turn over many of it's green policies. This showed in the opinion polls with the Tories making increasing in-roads into the Labour lead for the last 8-10 days of September <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(28/43%)</span><span> with some pollsters showing Labour's lead reduced to 'only' 10%</span>. Many commentators interpreted this as the tories aiming for 'going early', probably on 02 May next year alongside the local elections in England. Whatever the party conferences reveal will give a clearer indication of Tory intent.<br /><br />Labour meanwhile continued obsessing with private education sticking to their plan to remove the 'charitable status' private schools so that the fees become liable for VAT. An actually and seriously bonkers idea. It won't bother rich people in the slightest, it won't bother the legions of pupils from rich foreigners resident in this country, it will raise nothing from from rich foreigners who live abroad but send their kids here. It will hit hard people who scrimp and save to send their kids to private schools - people such as middle ranking nurses, middle ranking police officers, corner shop owners etc etc. And it will also result in the private schools withdrawing thir scholarship schemes for children from deprived backgrounds. The only good thing about the idea is that if we were ever stupid enough to rejoin the EU, it would have to be removed again to comply with EU Directives banning vAT from being charged on anything connected to eduation.<br /><br />More economic date has confirmed that the OBR's 'doom & gloom' forecasts for the impact of covid and the recovery, were wildly wide of the mark and that not only was the uK's recover NOT the worst in the G7+EU, but it was substantially faster and larger than Germany & France.<br /><br />Inflation continues to fall despite the fact that oil prices have risen 25% in the past few months as OPEC continues to cut production in order to deliberately force the price up.<br /><br /></span></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br /></span></span><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div></span></span></span><div style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><br /></div></span></span></span><div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">There were two Westminster polls released during the month </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 36.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)<br /></span></i>SCon: 15.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.8)<br /></span></i>SLab: 31.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.7)<br /></i></span>SLD: 7.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">.8)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Oth: 9.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.5)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p></span></span></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were five Holyrood polls released during the month <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 40.0/29.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.3/-1.3)</span></i><br />SCon: 16.0/15.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3/-0.2)</span></i><br />SLab: 29.0/27.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.3/-1.8)</span></i><br />SLD: 8.0/8.5%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (+0.3/-0.2)</i></span><br />SGP: 3.0/12.5%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+0.5/+5.8)</span></i><br />Oth: 4.0/7.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.5/+3.2)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three IndyRef polls released during the month </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span></span></span></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 42.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0<span><span>)</span></span></span></i>, No: 45.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.6),</span></i> DK: 12.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.6)</i></span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 47.6%, No: 52.4%)</span></div></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i><br /><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">(IndyRef 2014)</i><br /><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Yes: 44.7%</i><br /><span><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">No: 55.3%</i></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></span></div></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were two Westminster polls released during the month.</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(</i></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><i>figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-<br /></span><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;">Lab: 47.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+6.0)</i><br /></span>Con: 20.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.5</i></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>)</i><br /></span>PC: 11.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0)</i><br /></span>LDem: 7.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i><br /></span>Rfm 7.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.5)</i><br /></span>Grn: 5.5%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.5)</i><br /></span></span><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 1.5%<i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">There were two Senedd opinion poll released during the month. </span><i><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">(</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></span></i><br /><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Lab 37.0/34.5% </span>(-6.0/+3.5)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 22.5/18.5%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (+1.5/-0.5)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid 18.5/19.0%<span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #666666;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.5/-3.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 5.5/9.0%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> <span><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5/-1.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 5.0/6.0%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> <span><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0/nc)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 5.5/5.5%<span style="color: #444444;"> <i>(-3.5/-4.5)</i><br /></span>AWA 1.0/5.5% <span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.6/+0.5)<span> </span></i></span><i style="color: #444444;"> </i></span><br />UKIP -/1.0%<span> <i style="color: #444444;"> (nc/+1.0)</i></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div>Oth 5.0/6.0%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0/+1.0)</span></span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one IndyRef poll released during the month<span style="color: #444444;">. </span></span><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 22%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-11)</span></i><i style="color: #444444;">, </i>No: 56% <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(+3.0),</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span>DK: 22%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><i>(+8.0)<br /></i></span><div>(Yes: 28.2%, No: 71.8%)</div><br /></span><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p><p style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i>(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><br /></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /></b></b></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol. Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during the month.</span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no Assembly polls released during the month.<br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i>(General Election 2019)</i><br /></span></span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><span><i style="background-color: transparent;"><span>(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></i></span><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></div>(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)<br />(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)</i></span></span></span></div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were five polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 33.2% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.8)</i></span></div><div>FF: 18.4% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.4)</i></span></div><div>FG: 19.8% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.8)</i></span></div><div>GP: 3.8% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.2)</i></span></div><div>LP: 3.8% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.2)</i></span></div><div>SD: 4.4% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.6)</i></span></div><div>PBP-S: 2.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.8) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 12.4% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.4)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=</i><i>Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,</i></span></span></div><div><span style="color: black; font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= </i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)</span></i></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div><div style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div></div></div></div></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Food inflation rates, August 2023 (published in September).</u></b></span></div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Food inflation continues to fall across most of the european area at various speeds dependent on background factors such as levels of import, predominant type of diet and energy sources. For example food inflation remains so high in the UK because our addiction to prepared foods and takeaway food, out-of-season produce, imported foods and total reluctance to exploit our own energy resources such as fracking gas. You want cheaper food? Behave like people on the continent do. Simple meals, predominantly in-season and locally grown produce, mostly cooked from scratch at home.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Turkey 68.9% <span>(-4.0)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Hungary 17.9% (-4.1)<br />Serbia 16.9% <span>(-3.5)<br /><b>United Kingdom 13.6% (-1.2)</b> <span style="font-size: x-small;">⬅️</span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Slovakia 13.5% (-3.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Estonia 12.9% (-3.5) </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Poland 12.7% (-2.9)<br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Iceland 12.4% <span>(nc)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Bulgaria 12.4% <span>(-1.1)<br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Romania 11.9% (-4.5)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Belgium 11.4% (-2.0)<br />Faroe Islands 11.3% (-2.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Croatia 10.9% (-1.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Greece 10.8% <span>(-1.6)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">European Union <i><span style="color: #444444;">(as a whole)</span></i> 10.7% (-1.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lithuania 10.7% (-1.9)<br />Malta 10.7% <span style="color: red;">(+0.7)</span><br />Montenegro 10.5% <span style="color: red;">(+0.4)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Spain 10.5% <span>(-0.3)<br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Cyprus 10.0%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;">(+0.1)<br /><span style="color: black;">European Union </span><i style="color: black;"><span style="color: #444444;">(euro area only)</span></i><span style="color: black;"> 10.1% (-1.5)</span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Italy 9.9% (-1.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Austria 9.8% (-0.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">France 9.6% (-3.1)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Moldova 9.6% (-2.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Netherlands 9.6% (-1.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Germany 9.1% (-1.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Sweden 9.0% (-1.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Norway 9.0% <span style="color: red;">(+1.0)</span><br />Luxembourg 8.9% (-1.0)<br />Ukraine 8.4% (-4.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Ireland 8.2% (-0.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Latvia 8.2% (-3.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Bosnia 8.0% (-0.7)<br />Albania 7.9% (-1.6)<br />Czech Republic 7.9% (-1.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Finland 6.8% (-1.4)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Portugal 6.8% (-0.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Kosovo 5.5% (-0.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Denmark 5.0% (-1.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Switzerland 3.8% </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(-0.3)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Russia 3.6% <span style="color: red;">(+1.4)</span> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Belorus 3.4% </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(-0.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Macedonia 0.3% (-1.9)<br /><span style="color: #444444; font-size: small; font-style: italic;">(Source: Trading Economics Sep 2023)</span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></span></div></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></b></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><u style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: bold;">The USA</u><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><br />The Republicans continue go from strength-to-strength and Trump likewise within the Republican movement. His lead in the race for the Republican nomination continuing to increase as is his position against Biden for the actually Presidency. And the trend of Court cases against him increasing his lead is continuing as more and more ordinary Americans now consider him a 'victim' of an establishment conspiracy. He now has a clear lead amongst blue collar workers overall, the majority of trades union members, the majority of working class blacks and hispanics - all traditionally sectors the democrats would expect to be dominant.<br /><br />Illegal immigration coming across the Mexican border is now at record levels and several southern towns and ciities in Texas, New Mexico & Arizona are seriously considering hiring armed contract security to man checkpoints on their town and city boundaries to check people entering have ID and are legally allowed to be in the USA. Further north, the city of New York now has over 50,000 illegals sleeping rough on the streets due to all the night-shelters being full, on top of their normal 'resident' homeless and the situation now overwhelming even established charities such as the Salvation Army and the US Red Cross - with this being similar across other major cities in the north such as Chicago & Illinois. With winter fast approaching and temperatures in the north of the USA regulalry falling below -10c with blizzards, a potential disaster is in the 'offing' <br /><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></b></span></span></div></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;">Germany</u></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></u></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>AfD cotinues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD <i style="color: #444444;">(Tories & Labour) </i>are changing their position on major issue such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU. This is evidenced by the SPD's continued reluctance to send missiles to Ukraine and more importantly, their recent suggestions that they may re-impose hard borders on the east of their country to try and stem the flow of illegals immigrants entering - something which is starting to become a massive red-hot political issue not just in Germany, but across the entire EU as it starts to panic about the sheer scale of what is slowly moving northwards in Africa & the Middle East..</span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">AfD </b><span style="font-family: arial;">- 21.5% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> - 26.9% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP </b></span><span>- 6.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><span><b><span style="color: #04ff00;">Grune</span></b> - 14.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.1</span></i></span><i style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b> - 17.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: arial; font-weight: 400;"><b>Die Linke</b></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 400;"> - 4.6% </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(-0.1)</span><b style="font-weight: 400;"><br /></b><div style="font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-small; font-weight: 400;"><div><i><span style="color: #444444;">(In UK terms, simply put, </span></i><i><span><b>AfD</b></span><span><b> </b><span style="color: #444444;">are similar to BNP/UKIP, </span></span></i><i><span style="color: #01ffff;"><b>CDU</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>CSU</b></span></i><span><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span><span style="color: #444444;">is a coalition of Cameron</span><span style="color: #444444;">-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, </span></span></i></span><i><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), </span></i><i><span style="color: #04ff00;"><b>Grune</b> </span><span style="color: #444444;">are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),</span></i><i><span style="color: red;"><b>SPD</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"><b> </b>are similar to Blair's New Labour, </span><span style="color: #444444;">and </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Die Linke</b></span></i><span style="color: #444444;"><i> a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)</i></span></div></span></div></div></span></span></span></div></span></span></div></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjg9zTUnxmT_uKjBornDUeyulCHigwfdbQxoLlws_FRq2W4NR1Qz-11MKeDbf2w3B1aXiPdEl2diA5lcaKf3EvNlTEyMaXVeVUosGkg3QifPCZHAXER9yUw0zUZlahU0VE4ErlCzQDLq2L0AWZ6C13FDz9d4PcczBncrDMNfOgbcnQHC-HJDzx6FJLnalaP" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="608" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjg9zTUnxmT_uKjBornDUeyulCHigwfdbQxoLlws_FRq2W4NR1Qz-11MKeDbf2w3B1aXiPdEl2diA5lcaKf3EvNlTEyMaXVeVUosGkg3QifPCZHAXER9yUw0zUZlahU0VE4ErlCzQDLq2L0AWZ6C13FDz9d4PcczBncrDMNfOgbcnQHC-HJDzx6FJLnalaP=w306-h306" width="306" /></a></div><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></span></span></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-10225472993856000322023-09-05T21:25:00.026+01:002023-12-02T11:30:32.038+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR AUGUST 2023<p> <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwUMShoAB7XnB1R7nJjx-uHCOikdu1NHxlcS9YDFvxGQIe3vkYxIHcLVKxKZdoPSh5ZbhHfBDNfb8OgYHr3kN_7o40wIVRpY-qiXWnh8HOXU9LbzUmHZL0oXaX19Aq_r7OwTZ7rpOTZLvRRkUZ1p1-ODyWMroQGRF_7lsqxJbIKoyvjS1tUX4EXmVqURMz/s229/month.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="202" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwUMShoAB7XnB1R7nJjx-uHCOikdu1NHxlcS9YDFvxGQIe3vkYxIHcLVKxKZdoPSh5ZbhHfBDNfb8OgYHr3kN_7o40wIVRpY-qiXWnh8HOXU9LbzUmHZL0oXaX19Aq_r7OwTZ7rpOTZLvRRkUZ1p1-ODyWMroQGRF_7lsqxJbIKoyvjS1tUX4EXmVqURMz/s1600/month.png" width="202" /></a> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxGrADE2UKuiccdNvYk7sGX8TS8NfkMrZkiQQdmNp10dUeqRjcx_t7z5mxlitne13Nw6j12pNDXiqMDrbQ0CdbHbKAw4o47JXRJ74X1jGJHUPsIQv86g0FHjsyyMh3fBITOyZhXMbn8LABIWualUO-XHM1czIO6QWud2dAaAnatVDY92do0XnxmcJo9vUD/s227/month.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="227" data-original-width="191" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxGrADE2UKuiccdNvYk7sGX8TS8NfkMrZkiQQdmNp10dUeqRjcx_t7z5mxlitne13Nw6j12pNDXiqMDrbQ0CdbHbKAw4o47JXRJ74X1jGJHUPsIQv86g0FHjsyyMh3fBITOyZhXMbn8LABIWualUO-XHM1czIO6QWud2dAaAnatVDY92do0XnxmcJo9vUD/s1600/month.png" width="191" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" width="320" /></a><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>AUGUST</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 23 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 26.9% </span><i style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3) </span></i></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab 44.6% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.4) </span></i><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 10.8 </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2) </span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn 5.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4) <br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 6.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.7)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 5.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.6)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for July:- 18.10% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3)<br /><br /></span></i></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 24-30%, Labour between 42-51</span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 9-13</span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span style="background-color: white;">. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 23 polls, reached 50% once and on one occasion showed a 24% lead </span><span style="background-color: white;"><i style="color: #444444;">(We Think, 10-11 Aug)</i>.</span><span style="background-color: white;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 15-24%<br />.<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">If a General Election were held on these <b>AUGUST</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"> figures </span><span style="background-color: white;">and <u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html">using the new boundaries</a></b></span></u>, it would result in a Parliament of L422, C156, SNP26 , LD24, PC3, G1, NI18, Speaker</span><b style="background-color: white;"> </b><span style="background-color: white;">1 with Labour having a majority of 193 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(although it will be slightly higher because Sinn Fein will not take their seats, so around 196. Bizarrely, many people believe Sinn Fein are absent from Parliament. Far from it, they have offices, staff etc, they attend Commons social functions and they take part in all activities other than the actual political side - the Committees, the Chamber, state openings etc etc)</span></i>.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparisons</span></u></b></div><div><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></u></b><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: <br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(256 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2022 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2023 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(244 polls)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.2%, Lab 45.5%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 5.9%, Oth 6.1%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.31%</span></div></div><p style="background-color: white;"></p><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Polling figures for August <span style="color: #444444;"><i>( 23 polls)</i></span><br /></span><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 26.9%, Lab 44.6%, LDem 10.8%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 6.7%, Oth 5.3%</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con August: 18.10%<br /><br />The Office for National Statistics (<b style="color: #2b00fe;"><u>ONS</u></b>) apparently got it's sums wrong <i style="color: #444444;">(yet again) </i>and UK actually recovered from Covid faster and further than they initially thought and we are by no means the slowest growing economy in the G7 much to the disappointment of Labour who had been using that as a weapon for months. </span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ben Wallace the Defence Secretary resigned as he said he would. Mr Wallace was one of the most efficient and capable Secretary of State's for Defence we have had for around the last three decades and highly regarded by the Tory membership and the media on all sides. He had been struggling with marital problems for some time due to the pressures of the job. </span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">The cross-channel illegal immigration continues to be a major problem for the government however Labour can gain no succour from that as their 5-point plan to reform the asylum system is actually viewed with derision by a significant majority of the electorate <i><span style="color: #444444;">(around 70/30</span></i>), who view it as less sea-worthy than the proverbial brick. The main-stream political class on all sides are struggling with the fact that the overwhelming bulk of the voters on all sides want this stopped and the ones that are here thrown out 'pdq' - not processed faster <i><span style="color: #444444;">(because processed faster means allowing them to stay)</span></i>. The public don't want more laws - they want the existing laws actually enforced ruthlessly and rigidly. The politicians seem unable or unwilling to grasp that and the issue will remain an open sore that as we get closer to the next election, will damage both main parties. However they can draw some comfort from the fact that this is becoming a massive issue right across europe and the 'hoi-poloi' of the continent have had enough. </span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Sadiq Khan's ULEZ Expansion rolled-out and already the sheer number of cameras being vandalised or stolen is mind-boggling. <span style="color: #1e1e1c;">497 of 2,692 known cameras are currently out of action at the time of posting due to vandalism or theft and the number is increasing daily at a rate faster than they can be repaired/replaced. South London appears to be the worst affected area. Polling shows the majority in favour of Net Zero policies etc, but when the seem people are then re-polled with the caveat that they will have to pay for it the overwhelming majority suddenly opposes it.<br /></span><br />England's Lionesses lost to Spain in the Womens World Cup Final, with winners Spain immediately plunging into controversy and scandal over 'that kiss'.<br /><br /></span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="background-color: white; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br /></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="background-color: white; clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div></span></span></span><div style="clear: both;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><br /></div></span></span></span><div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">There were three Westminster polls released during the month </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 36.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.7)<br /></span></i>SCon: 16.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.7)<br /></span></i>SLab: 33.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.7)<br /></i></span>SLD: 6.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">.7)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Oth: 7.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+3.0)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p></span></span></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were three Holyrood polls released during the month <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 38.7/30.3%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;">(+3.2/+0.8)</span></i><br />SCon: 16.3/15.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.7/-2.8)</span></i><br />SLab: 32.3/29.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.8/+1.8)</span></i><br />SLD: 7.7/8.7%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (-2.3/-1.8)</i></span><br />SGP: 2.5/6.7%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+0.5/-2.3)</span></i><br />Oth: 2.5/3.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5/-1.7)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three IndyRef polls released during the month </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span></span></span></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 43.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.3<span><span>)</span></span></span></i>, No: 46.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.2),</span></i> DK: 10.4% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.9)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 48.3%, No: 51.7%)</span></div></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i><br /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">(IndyRef 2014)</i><br /><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Yes: 44.7%</i><br /><span><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">No: 55.3% </i><br /><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic; text-align: center;"></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westminster poll released during the month.</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(</i></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><i>figures in brackets show movement from last polling)</i>:-<br /></span><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;">Lab: 41.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-5.0)</i><br /></span>Con: 24.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc</i></span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>)</i><br /></span>PC: 13.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+3.0)</i><br /></span>LDem: 7.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i><br /></span>Rfm 11.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i><br /></span>Grn: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i><br /></span></span><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 0.0%<i style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. </span><i><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">(</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></span></i><br /><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Lab 37.0/31.0% </span>(-5.0/-2.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 21.0/19.0%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (-1.0/-1.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid 20.0/22.0%<span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #666666;"> </span><span style="color: #444444;">(+4.0/+3.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 6.0/10.0%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> <span><span style="color: #444444;">(nc/nc)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 3.0/6.0%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> <span><span style="color: #444444;">(nc/nc)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 9.0/10.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> <i>(+2.0/+4.0)</i><br /></span>AWA -/-% <span>(-/-)<i style="color: #444444;"> NOT POLLED</i></span><br />UKIP -/-%<span> (-/-)<i style="color: #444444;"> NOT POLLED</i></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div>Oth 4.0/6.0%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc/+1.0)</span></span></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one IndyRef poll released during the month<span style="color: #444444;">. </span></span><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444; font-family: arial;">(</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 33%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+5.0)</span></i><i style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">, </i>No: 53% <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(+1.0),</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> </span>DK:14%<i style="color: #444444;"> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><i>(-3.0)<br /></i></span><div style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Yes: 38.4%, No: 61.6%)</div><br /></span><p style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"></p></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><i>(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on more than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: italic;"><br style="color: black; font-style: normal;" /></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="background-color: white; color: black; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: normal;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="background-color: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /><br /></b></b><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol. Westminster government is 'shying' from dissolving the Assembly for fresh elections as the end result would be worse than now and it would still refuse to sit.</span></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during the month.</span></p><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There was one Assembly poll released during the month.<br /><br /></span></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 31.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0)<br /></span></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 26.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (+1.0)<br /></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 15.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (+2.0)<br /></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">UUP: 10.0%</span><i style="color: #444444; font-style: normal;"> (-1.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">SDLP:</span><span style="color: black;"><i style="font-style: normal;"> </i>6.0%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: normal;"><i> </i><i>(-1.0)<br /></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">TUV: 5.0%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: normal;"><i> </i><i>(-2.0)<br /></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">S-PBP: 1.0%</span><i style="color: #444444; font-style: normal;"> </i><i style="font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Oth: 6.0%</span><i style="color: #444444; font-style: normal;"> (-1.0)</i></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 42%)</span></i></div></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i>(General Election 2019)</i><br /></span></span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="background-color: white;"><div><i style="background-color: transparent;"><span>(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></i></div></span><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span></div>(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)<br />(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)</i></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div><span><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one poll released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 34.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.5)</i></span></div><div>FF: 18.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.5)</i></span></div><div>FG: 19.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>GP: 5.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.5)</i></span></div><div>LP: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i></span></div><div>SD: 5.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i></span></div><div>PBP-S: 3.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 10.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.5)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i><br /><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=</i><i>Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,</i></span></span></div><div><span style="color: black; font-size: x-small; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= </i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)</span></i></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><div style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div></div></div></div></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Food inflation rates, July 2023 (published in August).</u></b></span></div></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><br /></div><div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Food inflation continues to fall across most of the european area at various speeds dependent on background factors such as levels of import, predominant type of diet and energy sources.</span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Turkey 72.9% <span style="color: red;">(+12.2)</span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Hungary 22.0% (-7.3)<br />Serbia 20.4% <span>(-1.7)</span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Slovakia 16.5% (-2.4)</span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Estonia 16.4% (-3.1) </span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Romania 16.4% (-1.5)<br />Poland 15.6% (-2.2)<br /><b>United Kingdom 14.8% (-2.5)</b> <span style="font-size: x-small; font-weight: 400;">⬅️</span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bulgaria 13.5% <span style="color: red;">(+0.2)</span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Belgium 13.4% (-0.5)<br />Ukraine 13.3% (-3.2)<br />France 12.7% (-1.0)<br />Lithuania 12.6% (1.8)<br />Croatia 12.6% (-2.0)<br /><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">European Union <i><span style="color: #444444;">(as a whole)</span></i> 12.5% (-1.3)<br /><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Greece 12.4% <span style="color: red;">(+0.2)</span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Iceland 12.4% <span style="color: red;">(+0.3)</span></span></div></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">European Union <i><span style="color: #444444;">(euro area only)</span></i> 11.6% (-1.0)</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Moldova 11.6% (-1.6)</span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">Netherlands 11.5% (-1.5)</span></div></span></div><div style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Latvia 11.2% (-3.2)<br />Germany 10.9% (-2.5)</span></div><div style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Italy 10.9% (nc)<br />Spain 10.8% <span style="color: red;">(+0.5)</span></span></div><div style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Austria 10.5% (-0.6)<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>Sweden 10.5% (-2.0)</span></div><div style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Montenegro 10.1% (-0.6)<br />Malta 10.0% <span>(-1.8)</span></span></div><div style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;">Cyprus 9.9%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(-0.2)</span></span></span></div><div style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Albania 9.5% (-1.4)<br />Czech Republic 9.5% (-2.5)</span></div><div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Norway 8.9% (-4.6)</span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ireland 8.8% (-1.4)</span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bosnia 8.7% (-1.4)</span></div><div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Finland 8.2% (-1.0)</span></div><div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Portugal 7.3% (-1.2)</span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Denmark 6.6% (-2.2)</span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Switzerland 4.1% </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(-1.2)</span></div><div style="font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Belorus 3.9% <span style="color: red;">(+0.3)</span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Russia 2.2% <span style="color: red;">(+2.0)</span> </span></div></div></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small; font-style: italic;">(Source: Trading Economics Aug 2023)</span></span></div></div><div style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: italic;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><u style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: bold;">The USA</u><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;"> </span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><br />The Republicans go from strength-to-strength and Trump likewise within the Republican movement. He was absent from the recent party leader debate, but the fact that he is around 50% support within the membership means it is of insignificance at this stage. Of the remaining 8 candidates, none are at even 15% membership support and at that first debate when asked would they be happy to serve as Vice President to Trump, without hesitation 7 of the 8 said they would.<br /><br />Really the only thing of interest is that when given the choice of 'Trump, Biden or neither' 70% of respondants opted for 'neither'.<br /><br /></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: transparent;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;">Germany</u></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></u></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span>AfD cotinues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD <i style="color: #444444;">(Tories & Labour) </i>are changing their position on major issue such as econimics, illegal immigration & the EU. For example, the SPD are now shifting towards 'Truss-nomics' and are cuttig taxes for businesses etc by £36bn a year as it attempts to stave off crippling '<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation#:~:text=In%20economics%2C%20stagflation%20or%20recession,lower%20inflation%20may%20exacerbate%20unemployment."><b>stagflation</b></a>'.</span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-weight: bold;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">AfD </b><span style="font-family: arial;">- 21.5% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(1.1)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> - 26.5% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP </b></span><span>- 7.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><span><b><span style="color: #04ff00;">Grune</span></b> - 14.4% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.4</span></i></span><i style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #444444;">)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b> - 18.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Die Linke</b></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> - 4.7% </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-style: italic;">(nc)</span><b style="font-size: medium;"><br /></b><div style="font-size: medium; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(In UK terms, simply put, </span></i><i><span><b>AfD</b></span><span><b> </b><span style="color: #444444;">are similar to BNP/UKIP, </span></span></i><i><span style="color: #01ffff;"><b>CDU</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>CSU</b></span></i><span><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span><span style="color: #444444;">is a coalition of Cameron</span><span style="color: #444444;">-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, </span></span></i></span><i><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), </span></i><i><span style="color: #04ff00;"><b>Grune</b> </span><span style="color: #444444;">are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),</span></i><i><span style="color: red;"><b>SPD</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"><b> </b>are similar to Blair's New Labour, </span><span style="color: #444444;">and </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Die Linke</b></span></i><span style="color: #444444;"><i> a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)<br /><br /></i><b style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /></b><i><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg2NVJjwII6E5Z09cf8J8fJ1sTg13UeKkRpRFi5e7EmRzfeVnm5CzldY-Y8Pjqc-A63dPgBoMlCnYzu-8u8KCZfx7PGqDK3h8Yg-lgW19lb-9U8HLsftYPFb3_K6g2ZDeZAVH3-wh3RlMpvL3u6reyD-QN-NZYwSEMyOlxtNFULKrgo42E0GTxFzvFZTl5P" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="608" height="349" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg2NVJjwII6E5Z09cf8J8fJ1sTg13UeKkRpRFi5e7EmRzfeVnm5CzldY-Y8Pjqc-A63dPgBoMlCnYzu-8u8KCZfx7PGqDK3h8Yg-lgW19lb-9U8HLsftYPFb3_K6g2ZDeZAVH3-wh3RlMpvL3u6reyD-QN-NZYwSEMyOlxtNFULKrgo42E0GTxFzvFZTl5P=w349-h349" width="349" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /><br /></i></span></div></span></div></div></span></span></span></div></span></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></span></div></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-75158516569859353532023-08-05T15:44:00.007+01:002023-12-02T11:30:46.354+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR JULY 2023<p></p><div style="text-align: center;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ9MV4MKf_b_sNJkEARHMXbhuE0CWpLfTwrdPIJq-LBimVEKZ7IjmmSK_vLqvnR2IDzaYwNO-5WHNDZVPm2k9WC3XEUfDqQ6Xsn3_ApHVaxf2-RH3pAxoe1kMMBbl0j2T2U4sdQhugpxxxhECTwVH47V6N8nsNb39b3uYwcqdFlbqHXLQRt2g3o6bVyrHa/s228/july.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="228" data-original-width="192" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ9MV4MKf_b_sNJkEARHMXbhuE0CWpLfTwrdPIJq-LBimVEKZ7IjmmSK_vLqvnR2IDzaYwNO-5WHNDZVPm2k9WC3XEUfDqQ6Xsn3_ApHVaxf2-RH3pAxoe1kMMBbl0j2T2U4sdQhugpxxxhECTwVH47V6N8nsNb39b3uYwcqdFlbqHXLQRt2g3o6bVyrHa/s1600/july.png" width="192" /></a> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-88r7Y7zEcOHCoh6peMT0DYLi230GkXaaXlsURD8ap1SY_9OGIoIErmjPZuWNlHk0pEU3g97HYrQlnqkpwZGmmo-6OrblwFQ_RtEd7OuwznmDCGXfU8M03SINDnXfmpGCJ1NwxmNcVUFh6_3svemJr0GXo93PCga3m5ViL9C-DxoYA9yaeSdFuLp-J0qW/s229/ytd.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="193" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-88r7Y7zEcOHCoh6peMT0DYLi230GkXaaXlsURD8ap1SY_9OGIoIErmjPZuWNlHk0pEU3g97HYrQlnqkpwZGmmo-6OrblwFQ_RtEd7OuwznmDCGXfU8M03SINDnXfmpGCJ1NwxmNcVUFh6_3svemJr0GXo93PCga3m5ViL9C-DxoYA9yaeSdFuLp-J0qW/s1600/ytd.png" width="193" /></a><br /><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p></p><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>JULY</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 32 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.2% </span><i style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.6) </span></i></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab 45.0% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3) </span></i><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 11.0 </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.1) </span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn 4.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5) <br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 6.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 5.9% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.3)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for July:- 17.80% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.9)<br /><br /></span></i></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 22-29%, Labour between 41-50</span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 8-14</span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span style="background-color: white;">. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 32 polls, breached 50% once and on one occasion showed a 26% lead </span><span style="background-color: white;"><i style="color: #444444;">(Omnisis, 06-07 Jul)</i>.</span><span style="background-color: white;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 15-26%<br />.<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">If a General Election were held on these <b>JULY</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"> figures </span><span style="background-color: white;">and <u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html">using the new boundaries</a></b></span></u>, it would result in a Parliament of L444, C143, SNP23 , LD18, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker</span><b style="background-color: white;"> </b><span style="background-color: white;">1 with Labour having a majority of 238.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparisons</span></u></b></div><div><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></u></b><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: <br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(256 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2022 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2023 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(221 polls)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.3%, Lab 45.7%, LDem 9.8%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 5.8%, Oth 6.3%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.84%</span></div></div><p style="background-color: white;"></p><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for July <span style="color: #444444;"><i>( 32 polls)</i></span><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.2%, Lab 45.0%, LDem 11.0%, Grn 4.8%, Rfm 6.0%, Oth 5.9%</span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con July: 17.80%</span></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />A month dominated by three by-elections in Tory seats, all held on the same day. At the start of the month the Tories were forecast to lose all three - a 'feat' the governing party of the day had not suffered since it happened to Labour's Harold Wilson in the 1960's <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(less than 18 months later he went on to win the election with an increased majority - something the Tories will take heart from no doubt).</span><span> It ended with the three main parties taking one seat each, with the electorate sending inconsistant and highly mixed-messages for the three main parties from all of them - as usually happens in by-elections. The SNP will face their own moment of truth in the next few months in the <b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutherglen_and_Hamilton_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)">Rutherglen and Hamilton West</a></span></u></b> seat vacated by the now-disgraced former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier. In her case, 11,986 voters – or 14.7% of the constituency's registered electorate – signed the recall petition. Sounds low, but that is high enough to trigger it. Already there is controversy with the Labour candidate openly refusing point blank to endorse Starmer's policies.</span></span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br style="font-family: arial;" /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div><div style="clear: both;"><div><br /></div><div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">There were two Westminster polls released during the month </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 36.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3)<br /></span></i>SCon: 19.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.7)<br /></span></i>SLab: 33.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)<br /></i></span>SLD: 8.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">0.3)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Oth: 4.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.7)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were two Holyrood polls released during the month <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 35.5/29.5%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span style="color: #666666;">(-1.8/+1.8)</span></i><br />SCon: 19.0/18.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.3/+0.8)</span></i><br />SLab: 31.5/27.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2/+0.5)</span></i><br />SLD: 10.0/10.5%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (+1.7/+0.7)</i></span><br />SGP: 2.0/9.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-2.5/-3.7)</span></i><br />Oth: 2.0/5.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.1/+0.3)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were two IndyRef polls released during the month </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 41% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.8<span>)</span></span></i>, No: 47.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.7)</span></i> DK: 7.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.5)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 46.3%, No: 53.7%)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">Yes: 44.7%</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">No: 55.3% </i></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westminster poll released during the month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-<br /></span></i><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 46.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+3.0)<br /></span></i>Con: 24.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">)<br /></span></i>PC: 10.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i>LDem: 7.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i>Rfm 10.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.0)<br /></span></i>Grn: 3.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)<br /></span></i></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 1.0%.<i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /><br /></span></i></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. <span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i><br /><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Lab 42.0/33.0% </span>(+6.0/+3.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 22.0/20.0%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (nc/-2.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid 16.0/19.0%<span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #666666;"> (-3.0/-1.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 6.0/10.0% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0/+1.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 3.0/6.0% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0/nc)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 7.0/6.0%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (-3.0/-2.0)<br /></span>AWA -/-% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-/-) - NOT POLLED</span></i><br />UKIP -/-%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-/-) - NOT POLLED</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div>Oth 4.0/6.0% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0/+1.0)</span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 32% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0)</span></i>, No: 58% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0), </span></i>DK:10% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.0)<br /></i></span><div>(Yes: 35.6%, No: 64.4%)</div><br /></span><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div><i style="color: #444444;">(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists submitted in advance in selection order, with no candidate appearing on mor than one constituency list. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div style="font-weight: 400;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /><br /></b></b><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.</span></div></div></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during the month.</span></p><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no Assembly polls released during the month.</span></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i>(General Election 2019)</i><br /></span></span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></span></i></span></div></span></div></div></span></div></div></div><div style="background-color: white; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="background-color: white;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were two polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 32.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.8)</i></span></div><div>FF: 21.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.8)</i></span></div><div>FG: 19.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.7)</i></span></div><div>GP: 3.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.2)</i></span></div><div>LP: 3.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.0)</i></span></div><div>SD: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.3)</i></span></div><div>PBP-S: 3.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 11.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.7)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i><br /><br /><i>(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=</i><i>Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,</i></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= </i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div></div></div></div></div></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Food inflation rates, June 2023 (published in July).</u></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Food inflation continues to fall across europe at various speeds dependent on background factors such as levels of import, predominant type of diet and energy sources. Of worry is the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the subsequent Russian targeting of Ukrainian docks, grain storage and transportation means. Indeed, already western governments are warning that </span><span style="font-family: arial;">prices of items like bread, breakfast cereals. flour-based products and meat from grain-fed stock will start to see an increase in prices over the coming weeks. Rice is also starting to rise in price as countries seek to use it as an alternative to wheat etc. Wheat has risen 14% in the past fortnight, maize 12% and the IMF is warning grain will rise a further 15% within weeks and then keep rising if the Black Sea Initiative is not quickly restored.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Turkey 60.7% <span style="color: red;">(+8.2)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Hungary 29.3% (-4.7)<br />Serbia 22.1% <span>(-1.1)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Estonia 19.5% (-0.9) </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Slovakia 18.9% (-2.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Romania 17.9% (-0.8)<br />Poland 17.8% (-1.1)<br />United Kingdom 17.3% (-1.0) <span style="font-size: x-small;">⬅️</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Ukraine 16.5% (-3.6)<br />Lithuania 14.4% (-3.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Latvia 14.4% (-3.5)<br />Belgium 13.9% (-1.2)<br />European Union (as a whole) 13.8% (-1.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Norway 13.5% <span style="color: red;">(+0.8)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Germany 13.4% (-1.1)<br />Bulgaria 13.3% (-1.1)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Moldova 13.1% (-0.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Netherlands 13.0% (-1.8)<br />European Union (euro area only) 12.6% (-1.1)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">France 12.6% (-1.1)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Sweden 12.5% (-1.7)<br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Greece 12.2% <span style="color: red;">(+0.6)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Iceland 12.1% (-0.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Czech Republic 12.0% (-2.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Malta 11.8% <span style="color: red;">(+0.9)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Croatia 11.5% (-3.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Spain 11.3% (-1.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Austria 11.1% (-1.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Albania 10.9% (<span style="color: red;">+0.3)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Italy 10.9% (-0.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Montenegro 10.7% (nc)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Ireland 10.2% (2.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Bosnia 10.1% (-0.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Cyprus 10.1%</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;">(+1.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Finland 9.2% (-1.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Denmark 8.8% (-1.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Portugal 8.6% (-0.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Switzerland 5.3% </span><span style="color: red; font-family: arial;">(+0.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Belorus 3.6% (-0.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Russia 0.2% <span style="color: red;">(+1.1)</span> </span></div><div><br /></div></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: italic;">(Source: Trading Economics July 2023)<br /></span></span></div><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /></b></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;"><u style="background-color: transparent; font-weight: bold;">The USA</u><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></span></div><p></p><span style="font-family: arial;">The USA continues to confound it's own middle</span><span style="font-family: arial;">class east & west coast metropolitan liberals</span><i style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> (mainly because they have no concept outside their own little organic wholegrain vegan gender & race obsessed worlds and can't grasp that significant chunks of US society can't stand them)</i><span style="font-family: arial;">. Donald Trump goes from strength-to-strength in the race for the 2024 Presidentials and is even neck-and-neck with Biden in the Democrat stronghold of New York, where they are 43% a piece. New York is one of the Democrats 'Big Three' along with Chicago & Illinois. Across the country, they are also running level, which because of the complexities of the US Electoral College system and how Trump's vote breaks down at a state level, would see Trump win the Presidency by quite a margin. Bizarrrely, the majority of American voters now believe Trump is the victim of a witch hunt </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(I say bizarrely because a large number of working class Democrats now view him not as the anti-Christ personified, but as a victim of an elitist establishment and who was actually right in what he was saying would happen at the last Presidentials if Biden won)</span><span style="font-family: arial;">. Trump - ever the showman, after this latest round of rubbish against him commenced quipped at his press conference 'One more indictment and I'm home and dry for the Presidency'. The figures and movement patterns suggest that he is probably correct.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDraGJyU_VZ1E5eSgyby7d0v592oyA_MaLOmIHav-Xom-zHxHQ8CBotxvsK8xtab0XpAGbNUE2qMBZQ5rDCdhEQBy0IcGkg6FZXw9vPeCm0ByvU5XKF8QO9Y1FS9KZrR2zcrqA-i__sZOFtDum7EnGoMkHD4Z077g7l_F99cQ6dKuFWuO5LxeiB51dk8jJ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="241" data-original-width="209" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDraGJyU_VZ1E5eSgyby7d0v592oyA_MaLOmIHav-Xom-zHxHQ8CBotxvsK8xtab0XpAGbNUE2qMBZQ5rDCdhEQBy0IcGkg6FZXw9vPeCm0ByvU5XKF8QO9Y1FS9KZrR2zcrqA-i__sZOFtDum7EnGoMkHD4Z077g7l_F99cQ6dKuFWuO5LxeiB51dk8jJ=w141-h163" width="141" /></a></div><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span></span></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><b style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><u style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration-line: underline;">Germany<br /></u><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>The far-Right AfD continues to bounce between leading and second place in the polls. This is a backlash to the immigration problems that Germany is undergoing along with a failing economy, with 'Der Blob' saying they need more immigration to offset the demographic cliff-edge to which they are hurtling, while the mainstream populace are saying enough is enough unless you build all the housing and infrastructure first before they are allowed in, you force these people to integrate on acceptance, adopt the German way of life whether they like it or not, make no demands from the welfare system until they have contributed for a sufficient length of time, they secularise religiously and they leave their culture where they came from and not bring it with them, with the state intervening if they won't and throwing them back out. Net Zero is also playing large, again with 'Der Blob' - incompliance with EU desires, wanting to crack on with it while the mainstream population want it slowing down to a realistic speed that does not reduce their standard of living or cost them more in anyway shape or form. Mix in growing hostility to the cost of supporting the Ukraine war and the political scene becomes highly charged and toxic.</span></span></span></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><br />Across July there were 21 polls <i><span style="color: #444444;">(Figures in brackets comparison to last month, from Right to Left)</span></i></span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #01ffff;"><br /></span></b></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">AfD </b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">- 20.4% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.6)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> - 26.3% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.8)</span></i></div><div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP </b></span><span>- 7.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0)</span></i></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span><b><span style="color: #04ff00;">Grune</span></b> - 14.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3)</span></i></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b> - 18.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.7)</span></i></div><div style="background-color: white; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: arial;"><b>Die Linke</b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> - 4.7% </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(-0.3)</span><b><br /></b><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><br /></b></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(In simplistic UK terms, </span></i><i><span><b>AfD</b></span><span><b> </b><span style="color: #444444;">are similar to BNP/UKIP, </span></span></i><i><span style="color: #01ffff;"><b>CDU</b></span><span style="color: #444444;">/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b>CSU</b></span></i><span><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span></span><span><span style="color: #444444;">is a coalition of Cameron</span><span style="color: #444444;">-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, </span></span></i></span><i><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), </span></i><i><span style="color: #04ff00;"><b>Grune</b> </span><span style="color: #444444;">are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version),</span></i><i><span style="color: red;"><b>SPD</b></span><span style="color: #444444;"><b> </b>are similar to Blair's New Labour, </span><span style="color: #444444;">and </span><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Die Linke</b></span></i><span style="color: #444444;"><i> a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)</i></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="color: #444444;"><b style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><span><b><u>SPAIN</u></b><br /><br />The Spanish General Election resuts took place last month and an overview of the results <i><span style="color: #444444;">(or non-result as the case may be)</span></i> can be seen <b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="http://thepeoplesflag.blogspot.com/2023/07/spanish-general-election-results.html">here</a>.</span></u></b><br /><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span><b style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></b></span></span></div></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjOdaVJYPmSj9c8FsyRyyGooi7eWn7u6I1YmKqxfDi8aBCc_C872lI9SftqE7dnzYPqUqX2_AJ2MVxAedqIoz-5-WjrU4WsN4VicdF5nE7CJX-2eA8_HquOYiM3PlIM_GXzu28gp4CY7aRxrakZ_ndBMbwdVRzC_U3UyAg2wvRZTD9-6202j8qnVhaQ0GWm" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="608" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjOdaVJYPmSj9c8FsyRyyGooi7eWn7u6I1YmKqxfDi8aBCc_C872lI9SftqE7dnzYPqUqX2_AJ2MVxAedqIoz-5-WjrU4WsN4VicdF5nE7CJX-2eA8_HquOYiM3PlIM_GXzu28gp4CY7aRxrakZ_ndBMbwdVRzC_U3UyAg2wvRZTD9-6202j8qnVhaQ0GWm=w276-h276" width="276" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTbRBq5gIiSbBfhU8d49n1O4cPi3wI3eS2dX8QQEhXljbGvz222X5k9pDvnhRmXj0G5m467_p5XxM8fNkTZ5bTSlZcEq1YSmQ_OUO_l8M4DadFglu9W9Diw3ldVK3G-byYKSmjy8w-feoJgaZAYNgZ0yzwyWpGn5MlFz8C_Mv6fCmZkRMDMeQpX64M3Yff" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTbRBq5gIiSbBfhU8d49n1O4cPi3wI3eS2dX8QQEhXljbGvz222X5k9pDvnhRmXj0G5m467_p5XxM8fNkTZ5bTSlZcEq1YSmQ_OUO_l8M4DadFglu9W9Diw3ldVK3G-byYKSmjy8w-feoJgaZAYNgZ0yzwyWpGn5MlFz8C_Mv6fCmZkRMDMeQpX64M3Yff=w279-h279" width="279" /></a></div></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /></div></div><p><br /></p></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-38450642642933927002023-07-25T19:38:00.014+01:002023-09-03T22:20:24.178+01:00SPANISH GENERAL ELECTION - RESULTS<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Following very poor local election results, bickering among the ruling Leftist group and it's sympathetic parties, mixed with a background of sliding popularity generally, Spain's Prime Minister - Hugo Sanchez of the ruling socialist group PSOE/PSC coalition, moved for an early General Election, Spain's 6th General Election in a decade <i><span style="color: #444444;">(the joys of PR)</span></i>.<br /><br />The election was held on sunday 23 July, for both the Deputies <i><span style="color: #444444;">(the lower Chamber ie our Commons)</span></i> and the Senate <i><span style="color: #444444;">(upper Chamber ie our Lords)</span></i>. Spain uses a complex PR-based system for both Houses which has basically all but crippled most governments since the days democracy was restored.<br /><br />The results were as follows:-<br /><br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">SEAT ALLOCATION - HOUSE OF DEPUTIES (Lower Chamber)</span><br /></u><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVb4CPxi2xEYPeTs3FSEeWk8qrQXcqRAZLusMAFuU6xRp8ABkwA5OkYhA_0ZcATihXjbddm_YbnOxf6LcBu1X7Jkqd33qE4jesEJOG5wnOUapQqv5pLtQdGyCyNmBaxwqgxWYgbkDMJgM9UUeIwTcBLQS-gNv2NDkVALZBKDEBq8b78E4l72lMJFK19YwQ/s627/dep%20seats.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="160" data-original-width="627" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVb4CPxi2xEYPeTs3FSEeWk8qrQXcqRAZLusMAFuU6xRp8ABkwA5OkYhA_0ZcATihXjbddm_YbnOxf6LcBu1X7Jkqd33qE4jesEJOG5wnOUapQqv5pLtQdGyCyNmBaxwqgxWYgbkDMJgM9UUeIwTcBLQS-gNv2NDkVALZBKDEBq8b78E4l72lMJFK19YwQ/w559-h143/dep%20seats.png" width="559" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">SEAT ALLOCATION - HOUSE OF SENATORS (Upper Chamber)</span></u></b><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhuU6dBHpUoMLl17zhPDKqV1kOf-0f_laqCoZovOVTjSt8hMVpGa2t9v7rt1l0Hm0my7dE0Jcsx2qE_hrckrJvrBQcghxSkjeSiKjcy8FV0CX4XgLMh6hkI4lScBkAECsKoOUmdv3wHIqnSFboyAzc-0KCKtELn4D9rmWz9r1NNtHS26e2wgj-kWe8fqZfN" style="font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="151" data-original-width="627" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhuU6dBHpUoMLl17zhPDKqV1kOf-0f_laqCoZovOVTjSt8hMVpGa2t9v7rt1l0Hm0my7dE0Jcsx2qE_hrckrJvrBQcghxSkjeSiKjcy8FV0CX4XgLMh6hkI4lScBkAECsKoOUmdv3wHIqnSFboyAzc-0KCKtELn4D9rmWz9r1NNtHS26e2wgj-kWe8fqZfN=w561-h135" width="561" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>VOTE SHARE & SEAT ALLOCATION</u></span><br /></div></b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivb2dnhbTldIbmbwuh5XTDiHyG5b-mUBeUriDQNGsAqAXvzyrM5evZCnqMY1SdYPH0f7fDk8dNrt8X0P_X9p94WU0LxpvcRKc6b3xy-eCXjorf6AngIFHfBmcuxm7TOLKmySffqesjlHLtjfqtp8pCambx9UBzSL8rlqPzgUR2Fqo6EzhGYGAPNWoZH1AM/s450/deps%20vote.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="421" height="443" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivb2dnhbTldIbmbwuh5XTDiHyG5b-mUBeUriDQNGsAqAXvzyrM5evZCnqMY1SdYPH0f7fDk8dNrt8X0P_X9p94WU0LxpvcRKc6b3xy-eCXjorf6AngIFHfBmcuxm7TOLKmySffqesjlHLtjfqtp8pCambx9UBzSL8rlqPzgUR2Fqo6EzhGYGAPNWoZH1AM/w414-h443/deps%20vote.png" width="414" /></a><br /><br /><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;"><u>POPULAR VOTE </u></span></b></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjyZS_bfTToKdSW6Casm8jsFo-lj97QanW_3EcYwkWY056HzGzAg5ltM1p8A3B8Q6ekuRybg_xgnR3QaoxwtFV_k-JE0bQr4eREV_1YAGn81Uce0gMrbBiiIAkHhZcCK9yWc4yoN9ZbXysLWpKy-evL4MYH5NApRwvMQwSmDtPaEP4QPVcL2VUXPg33E0By" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="111" data-original-width="627" height="87" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjyZS_bfTToKdSW6Casm8jsFo-lj97QanW_3EcYwkWY056HzGzAg5ltM1p8A3B8Q6ekuRybg_xgnR3QaoxwtFV_k-JE0bQr4eREV_1YAGn81Uce0gMrbBiiIAkHhZcCK9yWc4yoN9ZbXysLWpKy-evL4MYH5NApRwvMQwSmDtPaEP4QPVcL2VUXPg33E0By=w489-h87" width="489" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Prime Minister Sanchez <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Socialist_Workers%27_Party">(PSOE)</a></b></span> performed better than expected but lost his ruling Coalition's majority. To remain in Office, he will need the support of fringe Leftist parties,seperatists and assorted minority parties. Although the Right as a whole made gains, they did not make the gains forecast - attributed to the reluctance of <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_(Spain)">PP's</a></span></b> leader - <span style="background-color: white; color: #141414;">Alberto Núñez Feijóo, to take part in a televised Leaders Debate in the final week. T</span>he two main Rightist parties - his PP & <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vox_(political_party)">Vox</a></span></b>, with 141 seats between them in the lower Chamber, do not have an outright majority <i><span style="color: #444444;">(although they do in the Upper chamber)</span></i> and will rely on the support of smaller Right-leaning parties if they are to form a government. And there remains the on-going problem of migrants from Africa, the Catalonia issue, the Basque region, virtually stagnant GDP and on-going 12% unemployment with neither side having a clear plan about how to deal with any of it at all and in some cases 'prevented' because whatever they do must be compliant with EU membership rules, euro membership rules or satisfy the demands of minority parties in order to maintain their support. All with a background of a very very disguntled and disillusioned electorate generally who are getting poorer and poorer even though public services are being cut to the bone to save money and more and more disillusioned with mainstream parties<i> <span style="color: #444444;">(hence the growth in Vox)</span>, </i>and establishment institutions such as the EU, trades unions, the church and the state apparatus generally.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />In all probability, whoever ends up forming a government (<i><span style="color: #444444;">and it will probably be the Right eventually - the maths isn't there for the Left unless they come to some sort of arrangement with the seperatists.)</span></i> it will be highly unstable, faced with worsening uncertainties globally, regionally and internally and they will almost certainly have to call a fresh election before the end of the year.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br />**<u style="font-weight: bold;">UPDAT</u><b><u>E @ 01 Aug</u></b> It now look increasingly likely that Spain will have to have another general election at the end of summer as neither side can form a ruling majority group/coalition and neither side is willing to take Office with a minority government as the economic problems facing Spain require a government that can ram unpopular economic reform through Parliament. Talks remain on-going but look increasingly futile.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZctQkFOFCL-mifKFdbbVlqng94eggltJ2cw9_V3eM-HYtMBU_5mFxRCjIGqoZGVgq4Ey0RpMTz2jl5yHu_XWERLxcgucBQcSW7qeZ5Z_h7AN3ZHadlFjHA6YLDthaCewGsMqcabtqXwySpDnfDH97WYAeLPOynJFcA5bLIHZsUDe_MLaFOLKRYiv5G8vP" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="547" data-original-width="900" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZctQkFOFCL-mifKFdbbVlqng94eggltJ2cw9_V3eM-HYtMBU_5mFxRCjIGqoZGVgq4Ey0RpMTz2jl5yHu_XWERLxcgucBQcSW7qeZ5Z_h7AN3ZHadlFjHA6YLDthaCewGsMqcabtqXwySpDnfDH97WYAeLPOynJFcA5bLIHZsUDe_MLaFOLKRYiv5G8vP=w425-h258" width="425" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /></span></u></b></div><p></p>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-79196309302248410002023-07-05T12:46:00.008+01:002023-08-04T07:48:25.447+01:00OPINION POLLING FOR JUNE 2023<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVbp6BcLWwTFYWYkld8lH4erKfnIkAZDH-qVmMxE3qrxObWyT1NcWd18pN1yfIgx-IVFCcV3Yd9unGDQhNq2Jnvl8EDkdvXtTTkqO53D0YIwGwCOTkmB1pwNXwFiRFun6_Tex7JMVyyDe3BUnbwIT5P9tB22krttckkC7tpl6IPvc5tsHxqf0ZjfcvUvp5/s231/june.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="231" data-original-width="198" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVbp6BcLWwTFYWYkld8lH4erKfnIkAZDH-qVmMxE3qrxObWyT1NcWd18pN1yfIgx-IVFCcV3Yd9unGDQhNq2Jnvl8EDkdvXtTTkqO53D0YIwGwCOTkmB1pwNXwFiRFun6_Tex7JMVyyDe3BUnbwIT5P9tB22krttckkC7tpl6IPvc5tsHxqf0ZjfcvUvp5/s1600/june.png" width="198" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJaIrbBla4MJ4XmpvBnKW3bCqVqOyw5MkomNj9JH-wGsMRa8QrLEG3jRH0hjBouRiuUtDzabHXMTTrTQ3rAgJjbnWx4oWCr3liDfrIr1Fx3VOZmilkR3CLPrfsXBvV2aKuxDpTb5uY9-4O-Hg-lE5oM_IZNUFjjuszXxAckY0XGX32y0Gl27DScluzVdNi/s229/ytd%202023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="196" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJaIrbBla4MJ4XmpvBnKW3bCqVqOyw5MkomNj9JH-wGsMRa8QrLEG3jRH0hjBouRiuUtDzabHXMTTrTQ3rAgJjbnWx4oWCr3liDfrIr1Fx3VOZmilkR3CLPrfsXBvV2aKuxDpTb5uY9-4O-Hg-lE5oM_IZNUFjjuszXxAckY0XGX32y0Gl27DScluzVdNi/s1600/ytd%202023.png" width="196" /></a><br /></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjksTwHuzitnHNbGF8HYl3TCZW-7FZuYPJsDwhGMyT1CpVWBDGPixKaKNKh4v_Q5IpVGmLJiComv3OmyWE9SVNjFE5XON8WA_c1QCsoIHqz4_hEFMNwYq3WHZ93CTJ3M4di0i_yNhKm2foUK-XiJ9ojKwlS8h0-OsMTOaBbBpSzE9Z4IiuhIzuk5llqy18J" width="320" /></a></div><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><br /></span></i></span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>JUNE</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 31 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.8% </span><i style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.6) </span></i></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab 44.7% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5) </span></i><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 10.9 </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2) </span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn 5.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3) <br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 5.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 5.6% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.9)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for June:- 16.90% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.44)<br /><br /></span></i></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 25-31%, Labour between 48-41</span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 8-13</span></i><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span style="background-color: white;">. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 31 polls and on one occasion showed a 25% lead </span><span style="background-color: white;"><i style="color: #444444;">(YouGov, 20-21 June) </i>although this is almost certainly an 'outlier' as it is at massive variance compared to all the other polls conducted around that time.</span><span style="background-color: white;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 11-25%<br />.<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">If a General Election were held on these <b>JUNE</b></span><span style="background-color: white;"> figures </span><span style="background-color: white;">and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L434, C152, SNP25 , LD17, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker</span><b style="background-color: white;"> </b><span style="background-color: white;">1 with Labour having a majority of 218.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;">Comparisons</span></u></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><u><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></u></b><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: <br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(256 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2022 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; text-align: left;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2023 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(189 polls)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.4%, Lab 45.6%, LDem 9.7%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 6.4%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 17.74%</span></div></div><p style="background-color: white; text-align: left;"></p><div style="background-color: white; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for June <span style="color: #444444;"><i>( 31 polls)</i></span><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.8%, Lab 44.7%, LDem 10.9%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 5.6%</span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con June: 16.90%<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Another tumultuous month which saw the conclusion of 'Partygate' which didn't do as much damage to the Tories as Labour would have hoped for nor the Tories probably expected. Some individual polls gave Labour truly shocking leads however those were clearly 'outliers' and other polling done around the same time either side of them was more within expected - and believable parameters. What it does show is that a significant chunk of the electorate <i><span style="color: #444444;">(probably far higher than red or blue are comfortable with)</span></i> are highly volatile and will flip-flop between one and the other just off the back of a 'red top' newspaper scoop as opposed to actual policies that will impact their lives. What it also tends to suggest is that the Tories have 'bottomed' in support and Labour are at around 'peak'.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br style="font-family: arial;" /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div><div style="clear: both;"><div><br /></div><div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">There were three Westminster polls released during the month </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 36.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.7)<br /></span></i>SCon: 18.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0)<br /></span></i>SLab: 32.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.3)<br /></i></span>SLD: 7.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">-0.3)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Oth: 5.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.6)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were three Holyrood polls released during the month <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 37.3/27.7%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.7/-3.0)</span></i><br />SCon: 16.7/17.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.3/-0.6)</span></i><br />SLab: 31.3/27.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.3/+0.3)</span></i><br />SLD: 8.3/9.7%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (+0.3/+2.4)</i></span><br />SGP: 4.5/12.7%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+1.5/+4.3)</span></i><br />Oth: 1.9/5.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.1/+2.4)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were five IndyRef polls released during the month </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 44.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0<span>.9)</span></span></i>, No: 46.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.8)</span></i> DK: 9.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.7)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 49.2%, No: 50.8%)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">Yes: 44.7%</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">No: 55.3% </i></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></div></span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westminster poll released during the month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-<br /></span></i><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 43.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.0)<br /></span></i>Con: 22.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">)<br /></span></i>PC: 10.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)<br /></span></i>LDem: 7.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)<br /></span></i>Rfm 12.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+3.0)<br /></span></i>Grn: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 1.0%.<i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)<br /><br /></span></i></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. <span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i><br /><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Lab 36.0/30.0% </span>(-3.0/-3.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 22.0/22.0%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (+1.5/+3.5)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid 19.0/20.0%<span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #666666;"> (+0.5/-1.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 7.0/9.0% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc/+0.5)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 3.0/6.0% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0/+0.5)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 10.0/8.0%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (+2.5/+0.5)<br /></span>AWA -/-% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-/-) - NOT POLLED</span></i><br />UKIP -/-%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-/-) - NOT POLLED</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div>Oth 3.0/5.0% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5/+4.5)</span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 30% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+4.0)</span></i>, No: 57% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0), </span></i>DK:13% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+4.0)<br /></i></span><div>(Yes: 34.5%, No: 65.5%)</div><br /></span><p><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p></p><p></p><div><div><i style="color: #444444;">(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></div></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /><br /></b></b><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the new Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.</span></div></div></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during the month.</span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>There were no Assembly polls released during the month.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(General Election 2019)</i><br /></span></span><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></span></i></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 400; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 30.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.6)</i></span></div><div>FF: 18.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(n/c)</i></span></div><div>FG: 19.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.7)</i></span></div><div>GP: 3.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.3)</i></span></div><div>LP: 3.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.3)</i></span></div><div>SD: 5.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.6)</i></span></div><div>PBP-S: 3.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.7)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 15.2% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.9)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 400; text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i><br /><br /><i>(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=</i><i>Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,</i></span></div><div><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= </i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)</span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 400;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 400;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></div></div></div></div></div></span></div></span></div></span></div></div><div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Food inflation rates, May 2023 (published in June).</u></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Food inflation rates, May 2023 (published in June). Food inflation is now starting to drop. Although the UK appears to be lagging, it's reporting period is markedly different to most of the others and so is always playing 'catch-up' irrespective of whether the trend is up or down. One thing that is becoming brutally apparent when you drill down into all the statistics is that the more energy <i>per capita</i> a country uses <i><span style="color: #444444;">(and the higher the percentage of that energy is imported)</span></i>, and the more varied your country's diet is in comparison to what your country actually produces <i><span style="color: #444444;">(resulting in a higher percentage of food imports)</span></i> and the more it consists of processed foods <i style="color: #444444;">(ready meals, fast-food, take-aways, snacks, confectionary, cakes, biscuits etc)</i>, the more that country is in turn struggling with food inflation.<span style="color: #444444;"> </span> And that is the core reason the UK is struggling with food inflation - we use to much imported energy per person <i><span style="color: #444444;">(the persuit of net zero is making us poorer - and the less you earn, the more it is impacting you directly and indirectly)</span></i>, we eat far to varied a non-domestic diet consisting of far too many domestically 'out-of-season' foods or foods not grown or produced here and we eat far to much processed food etc in comparison to other countries<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (this is actually also reflected in our rates of heart disease, strokes, obesity and Type-2 diabetes - which are all astronomic compared to most other european countries)</span></i>. We actually live in an age where for the first time in human existance, within the UK at least, the poor are fatter than the rich. 'Eat less, Move More'.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Turkey 52.5% (-1.4)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Hungary 34.0% (-5.0)<br />Serbia 23.2% <span style="color: red;">(+0.1)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Slovakia 21.7% (-3.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Estonia 20.4% (-3.0) </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Ukraine 20.1% (-2.1)<br />Poland 18.9% (-1.8)<br />Romania 18.7% (-1.1)<br />United Kingdom 18.3% (-0.7) ⬅️</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lithuania 18.2% (-3.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Latvia 17.9% (-2.3)<br />Belgium 15.1% (-1.5)<br />Croatia 15.1% (-0.7)<br />European Union (as a whole) 15.0% (-1.4)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Czech Republic 14.5% (-2.8)<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Germany 14.5% (-2.5)<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Bulgaria 14.4% (-1.5)<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">France 14.3% (-0.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Sweden 14.2% (-2.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Moldova 14.0% (-2.4)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Netherlands 14.8% (-1.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">European Union (euro area only) 13.7% (-1.3)<br />Ireland 13.1% (nc)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Norway 12.7% <span style="color: red;">(+2.7)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Austria 12.3% (-0.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Iceland 12.1% (-0.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Spain 12.0% (-0.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Italy 11.8% (-0.3)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Greece 11.6% <span style="color: red;">(+0.2)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Bosnia 11.1% (-1.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Finland 11.1% (-2.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Malta 10.9% (-0.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Montenegro 10.7% (-0.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Denmark 10.6% (-2.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Albania 10.6% (<span style="color: red;">+0.5)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Portugal 9.4% (-6.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Cyprus 8.4% <span style="color: red;">(+1.7)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Switzerland 5.1% (-0.3)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Belorus 4.4% (-1.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Russia -1.0% (-1.0) (negative)</span></div><div><br /></div></div></div><div><span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: italic;">(Source: Trading Economics June 2023)<br /></span><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">A majority of British voters <i>(<span style="color: #444444;">and wrongly)</span></i> hold the Government responsible for inflation. 50% of voters blame the Government, whilst 32% hold the Bank of England responsible. In actual fact it is The Bank of England's job to control inflation however that is a nigh-on impossible task when world events run amok, OPEC+ adopts a policy of deliberately pushing oil prices higher, net zero forces us to import more energy rather than produce our own and the domestic population refuses to change it's consumer habits.<br /></span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhIWGQekcviKQQLLgH3_07fXXWpglwe7Ktck0JT0jJFPmAZJ98HNS39HT6EKJcDGcQvRpiik4585pbbqiBEN7pVn496ndu8xpti4MCy4z9ViH4hGg7KQvG5NP-78ZYASpK67zpwwQB5M6lEyE0Xq6BxfjL-L-b3U9ySwMngjcCcSUkyYY4SOZasddHqjx75" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="1059" height="349" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhIWGQekcviKQQLLgH3_07fXXWpglwe7Ktck0JT0jJFPmAZJ98HNS39HT6EKJcDGcQvRpiik4585pbbqiBEN7pVn496ndu8xpti4MCy4z9ViH4hGg7KQvG5NP-78ZYASpK67zpwwQB5M6lEyE0Xq6BxfjL-L-b3U9ySwMngjcCcSUkyYY4SOZasddHqjx75=w590-h349" width="590" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /><br /><div style="color: black; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;"><u>Most Popular Modern-Times Labour Leader</u></span></div><div style="color: black; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="color: black;">YouGov polled nearly 2000 Labour Party members as to who was their most popular leader since Blair. The results will have disappointed Starmer who finished second to the crusty old marxist Corbyn. Neither actually got a third of the vote so you could speculate that neither are particulalrly popular.<br /><br /></div><div style="color: black;">Jeremy Corbyn - 30%</div><div>Keir Starmer - 29%<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div></div></div><div style="color: black; text-align: left;"><br /><b><u>BREXIT</u></b><br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Yet again highly misrepresented in a series of blatantly anti-BREXIT polls commissioned by Remainer groupings. In reality there has been very little drop in support for BREXIT - the annoyance is more at the way it is being done and deliberately under-mined and slowed-down by 'the blob', the the childish attotude of the EU. It is best explaned on the outstanding non-partisan <b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://pollingreport.uk/articles/a-majority-of-voters-think-brexit-has-gone-badly-that-doesnt-mean-they-want-to-rejoin">UK Polling Report </a></span></u></b>website.<br /><br /></div><div style="color: black; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><div style="color: black; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: black; text-align: left;"><span><b style="text-decoration-line: underline;">Random Polling Snippets</b><br /><br />A clear majority of Tory voters and a clear majority of Labour voters are now opposed to immigration ion the scale we have been witnessing. 44% of Remain voters are now opposed to immigration and roughly the same amount of Remainers are opposed to re-adopting unrestricted Freedom of Movement.</span></div><div style="color: black; text-align: left;"><span><br /></span></div><div style="color: black; text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></span></div><div style="color: black; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: black; text-align: left;"><b><u>Germany</u></b></div><div style="color: black; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;">A series of disturbing polls from Germany have indicated an explosion in support for <span lang="de" style="color: #202122;">Alternative für Deutschland </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany" style="color: #2b00fe; text-decoration-line: underline;"><b>(AfD)</b></a>. Afd is a far-Right populist party comparable to UKIP and the BNP in UK terms. It is deeply opposed to EU membership and opposed to the mass immigration that Germany has undergone in the past decade. It is also heavily anti-Islamic. It is heavily connected to <b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegida">PEGIDA</a></span></u></b> <i><span style="color: #444444;">(similar to our EDL)</span></i>, and other far-Right groupings such as <b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neue_Rechte">Neue Rechte</a></span></u></b> <i><span style="color: #444444;">(New Right)</span></i> and <b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identitarian_movement">Identarien</a></span></u></b> <i style="color: #444444;">(Identity Movement) -</i> which are traditiona\lsi white supremacy groupings who promote old-fashioned traditional German family values & ethics. Averaged, AfD is now running in second place - and in some polls is actually polling in first.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div>It is thought that the dramatic growth in the far-Right AfD <i><span style="color: #444444;">(it got less than 5% in the last Federal election in 2021)</span></i> is being caused by rising hostility among the ordinary middle-class mainstream German public towards islamic immigrants/asylum seekers emanating from the middle east and north afriica and not only their failure to integrate but also by their point-blank refusal to <i><span style="color: #444444;">(for example the immigrants traditional islamic hostility to female equality, gay rights, Israel etc and their demands that non-halal food is banned, more traditional islamic punishments introduced - such as hanging, flogging, amputation etc, the right to more than one wife and the acceptance of Sharia law and practices for the islamic community)</span></i> , the cost of the Ukraine war <i><span style="color: #444444;">(the overwhelming bulk of EU financial support comes from Germany, France & Poland)</span></i>, the persuit of 'net zero' <i><span style="color: #444444;">(which disproportionately affects people more the lower down the income scale they are)</span></i>, the constant petty interference of the EU and the domestic budgetary restrictions of being a euro-currency user.<br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b></span> - 25.5%</div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>AfD </b>- 21.0%</div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b> - 19.0%</div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: #04ff00;">Greens</span></b> - 14.5%</div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #ffa400;"><b>FDP </b></span><span style="color: black;">- 6.5%</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b>Die Linke</b></span> - 5.0%</div><div><br /></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(In simplistic UK terms, </span><b><span style="color: #01ffff;">CDU</span><span style="color: #444444;">/</span><span style="color: #2b00fe;">CSU</span></b><span><b style="color: #444444;"> </b><span style="color: #444444;">is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, </span><b style="color: #444444;">AfD</b><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to BNP/UKIP, </span><b><span style="color: red;">SPD</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to Blair's New Labour, </span><span style="color: #04ff00;"><b>Greens </b></span><span style="color: #444444;">are Greens, </span><b><span style="color: #ffa400;">FDP</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> are similar to our old Liberal Party and </span><b><span style="color: red;">Die Linke</span></b><span style="color: #444444;"> a more left-wing version of our Corbynism.)</span></span></i><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">,<span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span> </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div></span></span></div></span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiU1p0U35SLtxMSMXAegmCd_kICra5ci6VBBIbmAssyj0WWLvcCc0jw2mNwxqQe3-r4C-n14SwDKLIt6SQTca7sGz60cCiQUZ0dYeQJeJLk8xX0NCtJeRlhAIPk-U4tzNElh4qtVvzTfy_zJXi9R6GogMts_NjGK2VrghAYR49iJIvPynAcldZTPuw41j8d" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiU1p0U35SLtxMSMXAegmCd_kICra5ci6VBBIbmAssyj0WWLvcCc0jw2mNwxqQe3-r4C-n14SwDKLIt6SQTca7sGz60cCiQUZ0dYeQJeJLk8xX0NCtJeRlhAIPk-U4tzNElh4qtVvzTfy_zJXi9R6GogMts_NjGK2VrghAYR49iJIvPynAcldZTPuw41j8d=w305-h305" width="305" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div></span></div></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-13145539482383601722023-06-26T20:15:00.003+01:002023-06-26T20:30:22.612+01:002023 (JUNE) GREEK LEGISLATIVE ELECTION<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Readers will recall that Greece held a full Parliamentary snap General Election only last month <i><span style="color: #444444;">(the results of which can be seen</span> <b><a href="https://thepeoplesflag.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-may-greek-legislative-election.html" style="color: #2b00fe;">here</a></b><span style="color: #444444;">) </span></i>and that the winner - New Democracy's leader </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Prime Minister Mitsotakis, immediately announced a further snap election with some changes to the PR system in order to seek an outright majority to enable him to push through radical economic reforms and economic liberalisation. That second election was held on 25 June and the results were as follows:-<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgp58yyLe0bn83uvBbnHdEjmLZISqJCCsBapVruGEnpHiXTI5TGshndmZtV-vNTJDhvnnQvKOa5TpI3ldAJlSrpZmcABKj-VwTuSjYl9VuC_nc-01dH7kxsxXmrGv3V5AYkDcrl-8kmBmHKoSfJIYONxzg6v5JfNQredoN8TJIIiSthMeNOZ6Oaeqym7swj" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgp58yyLe0bn83uvBbnHdEjmLZISqJCCsBapVruGEnpHiXTI5TGshndmZtV-vNTJDhvnnQvKOa5TpI3ldAJlSrpZmcABKj-VwTuSjYl9VuC_nc-01dH7kxsxXmrGv3V5AYkDcrl-8kmBmHKoSfJIYONxzg6v5JfNQredoN8TJIIiSthMeNOZ6Oaeqym7swj" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhUPmIqHzBole6ICbEiBha7gu_XPrzbluz3Yvj1UafGeoxtlHAhh9Fp3fdU6sN2wlM7AewS3bfe3_NCzwHjmjiGQho6fMDz1GS1exW5t6yV9Z3PcFIBsjrjKhNsBCpkPl3G_-_3UY_7j_pSUW1_st-Klc-mI3rSW0uKxIGjyTdHo_eKyTlB8-bgj8vqUZrR" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="209" data-original-width="314" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhUPmIqHzBole6ICbEiBha7gu_XPrzbluz3Yvj1UafGeoxtlHAhh9Fp3fdU6sN2wlM7AewS3bfe3_NCzwHjmjiGQho6fMDz1GS1exW5t6yV9Z3PcFIBsjrjKhNsBCpkPl3G_-_3UY_7j_pSUW1_st-Klc-mI3rSW0uKxIGjyTdHo_eKyTlB8-bgj8vqUZrR=w382-h254" width="382" /></a></div><br /></div><br /><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoM5lsLtzYlIhmWd8yfTE0QPzaXyZVhtUs-18a6GXNKUA4-5VbN3b0CAT_qE8_WbZRVGFSGZbfIRGXymgYaW6DsJtgEdVufu2Xrb6dLjfUf9tYHMHhPrBTyMicInkoqWvUNoQTCAossM87YsUQ_ATOFyDum_k2XHT5fBkpnRAl2ktxGgVh_72lFdgDLQIt" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="1280" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoM5lsLtzYlIhmWd8yfTE0QPzaXyZVhtUs-18a6GXNKUA4-5VbN3b0CAT_qE8_WbZRVGFSGZbfIRGXymgYaW6DsJtgEdVufu2Xrb6dLjfUf9tYHMHhPrBTyMicInkoqWvUNoQTCAossM87YsUQ_ATOFyDum_k2XHT5fBkpnRAl2ktxGgVh_72lFdgDLQIt" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span face="sans-serif" style="color: #202122; font-size: 16px; text-align: start;"> <b> </b></span><b><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><span face="sans-serif" style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: red;">KKE: 20 seats</span></span><span face="sans-serif" style="color: #202122; text-align: start;"> </span><span face="sans-serif" style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #741b47;">PE: 8 seats</span></span><span face="sans-serif" style="color: #202122; text-align: start;"> </span><span face="sans-serif" style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #ff00fe;">SYRIZA: 48 seats </span></span><span face="sans-serif" style="color: #202122; text-align: start;"> </span><span style="color: #38761d;"><span face="sans-serif" style="text-align: start;">PASOK-KINAL</span><span face="sans-serif" style="text-align: start;">: 32 seats</span></span><span face="sans-serif" style="color: #202122; text-align: start;"> </span><span face="sans-serif" style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #2b00fe;">ND: 158 seats</span></span><span face="sans-serif" style="color: #202122; text-align: start;"> </span><span face="sans-serif" style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #3d85c6;">EL: 12 seats</span></span><span face="sans-serif" style="color: #202122; text-align: start;"> </span><span face="sans-serif" style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #990000;">NIKI: 10 seats </span></span><span face="sans-serif" style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #b45f06;"> Spartans: 12 seats</span></span></span></b></div><br /><br /></div></div>There were a total of 26 parties, 4 alliances & 2 Independents that met the criteria to stand. Turnout was 52.82% <i>(-8.28%).</i></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Prime Minister Mitsotakis <i><span style="color: #444444;">(who speaks fluent English, French, German & Davos - a strange dialect spoken at high altitude ski resorts by middle-aged technocrats wearing ski-boots)</span></i> got his sought-after outright majority (158/300 seats). He will now press ahead with his programme of </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;">tax cuts for people and businesses, further privatisations, increased digitalisation, controling the borders, illegal immigration and foreign workers </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(including those from EU countries)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;">, foreign and domestic investment promises and lower unemployment promises, as well the economy in general </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;">and the liberalisation and opening economically of Greece worldwide to foreign trade and foreign investement no matter what the EU says. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Of concern is the emergence of a new neo-nazi grouping - Spartans. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /><br /><br /><br /></span></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-3566290287874700562023-06-04T21:27:00.008+01:002023-07-04T14:10:44.911+01:00OPINION POLLING FOR MAY 2023<div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVJjfuHaqaCSNg3LSvHMFumX4R6UamAiygHZ1XaznkjA11i2ln4mFQ6IMDVj7oEZkjL4caGAkGsD9eGkePQK_MIuoYOO8boLUyQT_bQHtx8ucLEi0w5ms3rZftrsJV2KvUXegCOZBxXhA8_6Aw4JUQ85S7NmPRL-9T-daxae-n7v_IoIgksRIioJgx-A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="230" data-original-width="192" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVJjfuHaqaCSNg3LSvHMFumX4R6UamAiygHZ1XaznkjA11i2ln4mFQ6IMDVj7oEZkjL4caGAkGsD9eGkePQK_MIuoYOO8boLUyQT_bQHtx8ucLEi0w5ms3rZftrsJV2KvUXegCOZBxXhA8_6Aw4JUQ85S7NmPRL-9T-daxae-n7v_IoIgksRIioJgx-A" width="200" /></a> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjU_8-580nLNSPpGFmL1SqXREA25_MqSMw4X1p3HUG-Sxe6Fg9Dk3GUg5dYd87h25PdGFguEwupKQXSwZwQo8PABg0zRB6K2Jv6HWoPc320z2Wq2_nof-w6rJN0gg64qHjeATO2qU2YVLJ9ofFDBH8aRRHpNvFfZwm1UDvJjl53lueKIUindrdCqj155g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="192" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjU_8-580nLNSPpGFmL1SqXREA25_MqSMw4X1p3HUG-Sxe6Fg9Dk3GUg5dYd87h25PdGFguEwupKQXSwZwQo8PABg0zRB6K2Jv6HWoPc320z2Wq2_nof-w6rJN0gg64qHjeATO2qU2YVLJ9ofFDBH8aRRHpNvFfZwm1UDvJjl53lueKIUindrdCqj155g" width="201" /></a><br /><br /></div></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFVjb4yftT1drrL49rWToVTZqx3zzLLaOwm3PGSZBUltngDXr1tRjdmyDpfskpOzqAorZWiFdrOL08KPsU3ts5DKXcMksj1ra-Fn2yn_omuclVSx986RPmnLnTbMesjTy9fuXRnG0Yrlfw3xu74ZktMGlgsc8rU5zr7sOOVWsewVOZX53ch6D-cnJG3w" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhm_EPNLMxQDn2xUGocVr_10x1Gls-OZhZWGYPIIeO0izhW3_mjW8k2CpJ9ZJPnyTQXPpS4Ozz1Ll6x4zBHXoebkZ8DKuDJbdSghzwu_PIqWtwzdR7y4rnVIpdUHa-kjvhhIHFGfriVQECJafHMBputX1nQRCJE7bqQyJlfyYsggMMDR7RB9ZyBl9wjw" width="320" /></a></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>MAY</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 29 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 28.6% </span><i style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.1) </span></i></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 44.2% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 10.7 </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.9) </span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 5.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.1) <br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 5.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.6)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 6.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(n/c)<br /></i></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for May:- 15.46% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.17)<br /></span></i></span></div><br /><i style="color: #444444; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 26-31%, Labour between 51-41</span></i><i style="color: #444444; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="color: #444444; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 7-16</span></i><i style="color: #444444; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px;">. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 29 polls, breaching 50% in one of them and on one occasion showed a 27% lead </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><i style="color: #444444;">(Omnisis, 11-12 Apr) </i>although this is almost certainly an 'outlier' as it is at massive variance compared to all the other polls conducted around that time.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14.85px;"> Labour led in every poll with leads of between 11-27%.<br /></span><br />If a General Election were held on these <b>MAY</b> figures <span style="background-color: white;">and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L412, C167, SNP33 , LD16, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker</span><b> </b><span style="background-color: white;">1 with Labour having a majority of 174.</span><br /><br /><br /><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Comparisons</u></b></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: </span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(256 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br />Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2022 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2023 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(158 polls)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.3%, Lab 45.8%, LDem 9.5%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 6.5%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 18.42%</span></div></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Polling figures for May <span style="color: #444444;"><i>( 29 polls)</i></span><br /></span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 28.6%, Lab 44.2%, LDem 10.7%, Grn 5.0%, Rfm 5.3%, Oth 6.3%</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">Lab lead over Con: 15.46%</span><br /><br />Polling is basically static with virtually no movement at all, possibly the mpact of the English Locals' that were held this month. The results of the local elections held in May in both England & Northern Ireland, can be seen <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="http://thepeoplesflag.blogspot.com/2023/05/english-local-election-results-may-2023.html" style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration-line: underline;">here</a> </span>for England & <b> <u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="http://thepeoplesflag.blogspot.com/2023/05/northern-ireland-local-election-results.html">here</a></span></u> </b></span>for Northern Ireland.</div><div style="background-color: white;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div><div style="clear: both;"><br /><div>There was very little movement in the polls in Scotland, which the SNP will be glad about as it probably signals they are through the worst support-wise now.<br /><br />The SNP still see themselves as 'kingmakers' at the next General Election <i><span style="color: #444444;">(and indeed major pollsters and analysts now believe the next election will result in a hung Parliament)</span></i>. SNP EU accession spokesperson Alyn Smyth made a policy statement that the SNP will not prop-up a Labour government nor even lend it's vote to stop it falling unless it met two key demands beforehand. They will not even open negotiations over further matters unless the key demands are met first and that unless Labour agree without trying to fudge it, not to bother even contacting them :-</div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />1. Immediate joining of the EU Single Market and a referendum to join the EU within the first Parliament.<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />2. A guarenteed Scottish Independence Referendum, without any Westminster interference at all.<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />He added that from their perspective, Labour are no better than the Tories where Scotland is concerned and just as toxic for Scotland and that Labour are merely a convenience for the SNP to achieve it's aims.<br /></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br />(<u>COMMENT</u>. The SNP have woken up to the fact that from their perspective it would be financial and economic armageddon for an independent Scotland to join the EU or even just the Single Market, while the rest of the UK was outside it - they have to force the UK back into the EU first - or at the very least the Single Market in full, then move for independence otherwise they literally destroy 85% of their export </i></span><i style="color: #444444;">market </i><i style="color: #444444;">(the rest of UK)</i><i style="color: #444444;"> at a stroke and destroy their food and agriculture industry in the process. In addition, because they have no sovereign currency of their own, they would have to join the euro immediately on joining - and before being able to join would have to meet the debt-to-GDP ratio required which would require eye-wateringly massive austerity in Scotland.)</i></div><div style="clear: both;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><br /><br />There were three Westminster polls released during the month </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 38.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3)<br /></span></i>SCon: 17.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.4)<br /></span></i>SLab: 30.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.4)<br /></i></span>SLD: 8.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">-0.3)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">Oth: 6.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were three Holyrood polls released during the month <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 39.0/30.7%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+1.0/nc)</span></i><br />SCon: 18.0/18.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.3/+0.6)</span></i><br />SLab: 30.0/26.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.7/+2.4)</span></i><br />SLD: 8.0/7.3%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (-1.0/-2.4)</i></span><br />SGP: 3.0/8.4%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+0.5/-1.9)</span></i><br />Oth: 2.0/2.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.2/-3.0)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three IndyRef polls released during the month </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 45.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+4.0)</span></i>, No: 48.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.7)</span></i> DK: 6.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-4.7)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 48.8%, No: 51.2%)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">Yes: 44.7%</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">No: 55.3% </i></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"></p><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were two Westminster polls released during the month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-<br /></span></i><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 46.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0)<br /></span></i>Con: 21.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.0</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">)<br /></span></i>PC: 10.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.5)<br /></span></i>LDem: 8.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0)<br /></span></i>Rfm 9.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i>Grn: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 1.5%.<i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.5)<br /><br /></span></i></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were two Senedd opinion polls released during the month. <span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i><br /><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Lab 39.0/33.0% </span>(-2.0/+1.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 20.5/18.5%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (-0.5/-3.5)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid 18.5/21.0%<span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #666666;"> (-1.5/-2.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 7.0/8.5% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.0/nc)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 4.0/5.5% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc/-1.5)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 7.5/7.0%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (-0.5/+1.0)<br /></span>AWA -/5.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-/+5.0)</span></i><br />UKIP -/1.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-/+1.0)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div>Oth 3.5/0.5% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.5/-7.5)</span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There were two IndyRef polls released during the month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 26% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-3.0)</span></i>, No: 56% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-4.0), </span></i>DK:18% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+7.0)<br /></i></span><div>(Yes: 31.7.%, No: 68.3%)</div><br /></span><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p></p><p></p><div><div><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;"><br /></span><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /><br /></b></b><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the new Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.</span></div></div></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during the month.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There was no Assembly polls released during the month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></p><div><span><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></span><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i>UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></span></i></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 400; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div style="font-weight: 400;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 33.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.3)</i></span></div><div>FF: 18.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.3)</i></span></div><div>FG: 19.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.7)</i></span></div><div>GP: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.7)</i></span></div><div>LP: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.3)</i></span></div><div>SD: 4.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.6)</i></span></div><div>S-PBP: 2.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 1.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 12.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div><br /></div></div></div></div></div></b></div></span></div></span></div></div></div></span></div></div><b><u>BREXIT</u></b><br /><br />As for joining the EU, three pollsters <i><span style="color: #444444;">(Redfield & Wilton and Savanta-ComRes & Omnisis)</span></i> in recent months did very detailed polls regarding joining the EU.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">They found that initially, 61% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(RW)</i></span>, 60% <i style="color: #444444;">(SCR) </i>&<i style="color: #444444;"> </i>57% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(OM</span></i>) wanted to rejoin the EU - although one of those three only polled voters aged between 18 & 25 who were to young to vote in the BREXIT Referendum in the first place.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The pollsters then pointed out to the sample they polled that we cannot rejoin the EU as was, we have to join under the new requirements and that would entail a commitment to abandon the pound and adopt the euro<i> <span style="color: #444444;">(handing control to Brussels of our gold reserve, the Bank of England and our budget).</span></i> a commitment to Schengen <i><span style="color: #444444;">(handing control of our borders and visa system)</span></i>, massive austerity to get our debt-to-GDP ratio correct, large scale privatisations of public sector areas and opening of all public sector departments <i><span style="color: #444444;">(including the NHS but exempting core civil service roles)</span></i> to private sector contract bids on a level playing field, the economic liberalisation of the economy, our yearly payment would be higher <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(because we are now richer)</i></span> and there would be no rebates, that under the new terms we would have to all but abandon the Commonwealth etc etc and that all this would have to be done as part of the Accession process <i><span style="color: #444444;">(with no guarenetee that the EU would give final approval at the end)</span></i>, the sample groups were then re-polled and support for joining the EU amongst the exact same group of those originally polled dropped to less than 25%.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It seems that when initially asked, people want to reverse BREXIT back to how it was in 2016 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(which isn't possible and cannot be done - the EU has changed dramatically since we left and that version of the EU no longer exists)</span></i>, not join under new Accession terms<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (which is what we would have to do, with still no guarentee at the end of that period that the EU would approve the application anyway).</span></i> As an example of how long Accession takes now, it is estimated Ukraine will need up to 20 years <b><u>after</u></b> the war stops to stand any chance of full compliance required to join and that is with an accelerated scheme designed especially for them. Switzerland has even abandoned it's application outright as they fundementally disagree with the level of control the EU will lever over their internal budget and the EU interference membership will cause to their banking system and methods.<br /><br />YouGov also did a 'tracker' poll in which they claim 56% say it was 'wrong' to leave and 31% say it was 'right'. This is a heavily loaded and very simplistic poll where they class unhappy Leavers - ie those who are unhappy with how it has been handled but still fundementally Leavers, as people who think it was 'wrong'. A belief by the pollsters <i><span style="color: #444444;">(and all are guilty of this to a degree)</span></i> which of course is bollocks.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div>The two largest economies in the EU are Germany & France. Germany is now officially in recession whereas the UK is now forecast to continue growing. “Poor Brexit Britain” beats France on GDP per capita and has extended its lead in GDP terms over France since 2019 from a $65bn bigger economy to $287bn bigger economy.</div></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></div><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div></div></blockquote><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Food inflation rates, April 2023 (published in May).</u></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Food inflation rates, April 2023 (published in May). Food inflation is now starting to drop. Although the UK appears to be lagging, it's reporting period is markedly different to most of the others and so is always playing 'catch-up' irrespective of whether the trend is up or down.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Turkey 53.9% (-14.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Hungary 39.0% (-5.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Slovakia 25.4% (-2.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Estonia 23.4% (-1.3)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Serbia 23.1% (-2.3)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Ukraine 22.2% (-4.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lithuania 21.9% (-5.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Latvia 20.2% (-3.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Romania 19.8% (-1.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Poland 19.7% (-4.3)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">United Kingdom 19.0% (-0.1) ⬅️</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Czech Republic 17.3% (-6.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Sweden 16.9% (-2.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Germany 16.8% (-5.1)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Belgium 16.6% (nc)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Moldova 16.4% (-5.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">European Union (as a whole) 16.4% (-3.3)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Bulgaria 15.9% (-2.8)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Croatia 15.8% (-1.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Netherlands 16.4% (-2.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Portugal 15.4% (-4.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">European Union (euro area only) 15% (-2.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">France 14.9% (-1.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Finland 13.7% (-2.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Austria 13.1% (-1.3)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Denmark 13.1% (-2.7)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Ireland 13.1% (nc)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Bosnia 12.8% (-6.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Malta 11.4% (-1.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Spain 12.9% (-3.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Iceland 12.3% (-0.2)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Italy 12.1% (-0.5)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Montenegro 11.6% (-2.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Greece 11.4% (-2.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Norway 10.6% (+2.0)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Albania 10.1% (-0.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Cyprus 6.7% (-0.4)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Belorus 6.1% (-3.1)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Switzerland 5.4% (-0.9)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Russia 0.0% (-2.6)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">CPIH EU (as a whole) 6.5% (-0.1)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">CPIH EU (euro area only) 5.6% (-0.1)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">CPIH UK 7.8% (-1.1)</span></div><div><br /></div></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div><span><span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: italic;">(Source: Trading Economics May 2023)</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>OTHER</u></b></span></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were elections in both Greece & Turkey, the results of which can be seen </span><span style="color: #2b00fe; font-family: arial;"><b><u><a href="http://thepeoplesflag.blogspot.com/2023/05/2023-may-greek-legislative-election.html">here</a></u></b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> for Greece and </span><b style="font-family: arial;"><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="http://thepeoplesflag.blogspot.com/2023/05/turkish-presidential-legislative.html">here</a></span></u></b><span style="font-family: arial;"> for Turkey. Of note is that Greece will very shortly be having another election as the winning 'New Democracy' seek an outright majority.</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjTYzRwRvBeyiatHZQiy7W-bmCgd90E0BeIynPqbq3kgXjrqTsRV2yCSCBnU1134cBcToqWnTI8b32OyEheMm7oqP8M_-JdBufFGMNsBl0bW9qhEiQPfWNlDaPA0ezDqNgb0qIr-akzCHwQWXsfW2i-jGjctMJD-9FHDfK_UH3sn-eZyiE9poaQr2oHbg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjTYzRwRvBeyiatHZQiy7W-bmCgd90E0BeIynPqbq3kgXjrqTsRV2yCSCBnU1134cBcToqWnTI8b32OyEheMm7oqP8M_-JdBufFGMNsBl0bW9qhEiQPfWNlDaPA0ezDqNgb0qIr-akzCHwQWXsfW2i-jGjctMJD-9FHDfK_UH3sn-eZyiE9poaQr2oHbg=w382-h382" width="382" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;"><br /><br /><br /></span></div></div></span></div></span></span></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><br /></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-69416329853283656122023-05-31T15:55:00.008+01:002023-05-31T15:59:54.979+01:00TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL & LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS - RESULT<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION</u></b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Turkish Presidential elections took place on Sunday 14 May 2023. According to the Article 101 of the Constitution of Turkey, <i><span style="color: #444444;">(amended following the 2017 constitutional referendum)</span></i>, any political party that has won 5% of the vote in the previous parliamentary level election can put forward a candidate. Any remaining potential candidates are required to collect at least 100,000 signatures. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">There were 4 candidates listed on the ballot paper however one - Muharran Ince, withdrew before the vote. The remaining three - Recap Erdogan, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu & Sinan Ogan stood and received nominations from the various Turkish political parties.<br /><br />The result was inconclusive, with no candidate winning over 50% of the vote meaning that the top two placed candidates would face a run-off election on Sunday 28 May. The incumbant - Recep Erdogan, won the second round and remained President.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZQk2JAtDJWoNJ8cjmt-_rz4Lxv_ceDjPXqvFvikJVC_LqRrMXwK5r59gLV-VwfsfCT1JbOlgvo5I693LgIBLapo9ONZW5Wygm-QsLBtecUUkPfu1JAPikcm0oNLjUWwr9vPaNUtU3cYm-wCm9u6db0kYKF5_c2JtEI4ke9SpdEurHE1Gc-4GHAvLJfg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="205" data-original-width="512" height="171" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZQk2JAtDJWoNJ8cjmt-_rz4Lxv_ceDjPXqvFvikJVC_LqRrMXwK5r59gLV-VwfsfCT1JbOlgvo5I693LgIBLapo9ONZW5Wygm-QsLBtecUUkPfu1JAPikcm0oNLjUWwr9vPaNUtU3cYm-wCm9u6db0kYKF5_c2JtEI4ke9SpdEurHE1Gc-4GHAvLJfg=w428-h171" width="428" /></a></div></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">First Round Results (14 May)</span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi92gAx8VaL3Ed4ygOXDm7NlJKjh4usTfOEvXLyKmjMpSvXOMvJkIwMyR-FkoDuPLGJ2FvukfkL3e2-JgXcIKJ848KjVYOr5x1Qqpl11DS_qJBjqV52grXZyBzKTppDdyjVCOiZQs1Iq5Lve2mEZ0DG2zQEo1Gb5anZ0RayVH7ZLHzvT0Sq97yE51IBLA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="147" data-original-width="513" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi92gAx8VaL3Ed4ygOXDm7NlJKjh4usTfOEvXLyKmjMpSvXOMvJkIwMyR-FkoDuPLGJ2FvukfkL3e2-JgXcIKJ848KjVYOr5x1Qqpl11DS_qJBjqV52grXZyBzKTppDdyjVCOiZQs1Iq5Lve2mEZ0DG2zQEo1Gb5anZ0RayVH7ZLHzvT0Sq97yE51IBLA=w427-h122" width="427" /></a></div><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Second Round Results (28 May)</b></span><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION</u><br /><br />The Parliamentary election took place on 14 May at the same time as the first round of presidential voting. There were a total of 24 parties standing as well as independents, and voters were electing all 600 Members of Parliament to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. The election uses a <b><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><u><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%27Hondt_method">D'Hondt</a></u></span></b> method of calculation, spread across 87 Districts. To try to widen the range elected, the cut-off threshold was lowered from 10% to 7% As a result, significant horse trading takes place prior to the election so that 'allied' parties don't trip over each other and basically they line up in 5 main alliances/blocs that do not compete against each other with the rest being non-aligned. <br /><br />There were also a further 12 political parties that could have stood but chose not to.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihA95pIghYEQKTH8XmH7r7YcJ2roiCCRc_FXuqjqygYH_i8LJ19mTRyoLNbw4GUNLlNhHMjcUHHKdb1QWcXlbo1LuEJvct4Kjirn4LZNLKf1ygGFzHQmrUpxeeIo0ra-Ay1CN6k1lrHSTbjsI6MMosxHT6Hjb62YODBkzp7FAkhUG_r8hr09OTOserzA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="910" height="461" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEihA95pIghYEQKTH8XmH7r7YcJ2roiCCRc_FXuqjqygYH_i8LJ19mTRyoLNbw4GUNLlNhHMjcUHHKdb1QWcXlbo1LuEJvct4Kjirn4LZNLKf1ygGFzHQmrUpxeeIo0ra-Ay1CN6k1lrHSTbjsI6MMosxHT6Hjb62YODBkzp7FAkhUG_r8hr09OTOserzA=w619-h461" width="619" /></a></div><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Standing Parties</span></b><br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div>The results - on an 86.98% turn-out were:-<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhvN5jC-sYwB4CHpPAHFdRuOqwYa78ZIutxay78dJtv7t93BNsaTzw-GDYECr_0PPOUB0fPl3hmVQh2uVbnBJEBCPA-e7JN6zfubVbDq8225TOlED9mYySN97OBFLsyE75FWM2VecE9cwuBMErlD_WM_Q8QM4xdXV95bkqUCEGASPdmJ3jE5LMGFSbBRw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="175" data-original-width="480" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhvN5jC-sYwB4CHpPAHFdRuOqwYa78ZIutxay78dJtv7t93BNsaTzw-GDYECr_0PPOUB0fPl3hmVQh2uVbnBJEBCPA-e7JN6zfubVbDq8225TOlED9mYySN97OBFLsyE75FWM2VecE9cwuBMErlD_WM_Q8QM4xdXV95bkqUCEGASPdmJ3jE5LMGFSbBRw=w444-h162" width="444" /></a></div><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">600 Parliamentary Seats</span></b><br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><br />The result gave Erdogan a slightly reduced majority:-</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjiVH8qO6iMb3XfL-A4LMAy9pfTczlZWuy9T52dRv8wpTZmkHM86Lxv5ETnXZDaEX-lSM6SjNkwwzqGkPW3qtPBnBhOUXTQLWzaf7ZGZo8XGTbhetiJIIaZ2yOyQHZiBPasK-d268JTAD6PrLxX25spG-MtxeHt6Tm8BsBAGgk0f4blAZqBGnLvwg1iWw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="112" data-original-width="289" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjiVH8qO6iMb3XfL-A4LMAy9pfTczlZWuy9T52dRv8wpTZmkHM86Lxv5ETnXZDaEX-lSM6SjNkwwzqGkPW3qtPBnBhOUXTQLWzaf7ZGZo8XGTbhetiJIIaZ2yOyQHZiBPasK-d268JTAD6PrLxX25spG-MtxeHt6Tm8BsBAGgk0f4blAZqBGnLvwg1iWw=w272-h106" width="272" /></a></div><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Alliance/Bloc Seats</span></b></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDRURbbY_6mOQ0p2HIa7deKgn6UaOtiFpI8dEuzUO7lpLCggxawz4u-df2SazmtVtKl7EKHyvdIJ1QLY9Q6wlD0hCmXDpjDYL1Dv2wWGDvFYwGfGHFSdqD7hc5oLputFKRuNfkbN3iioOwa3LIDOdfLzQjeK5Gb69muLrW3X-audw-FE3jNHKBSLLrKw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="700" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhT7EqTqSd9IgCf-u3NProALdrdfEXQeCxY9d80NIehyPTxYpPgcCkZHKmDFKkcPuG5Wd5EZKznWhSRuubpy10WYcnDggrt3nurwepGM787O1hJJggEAY2QlwSuIHoo9NN4K11F2zn8dQfllailoGJqR-Tk0xCyYCWNW6iBmS9w83E40QGtyLhXz4VRtg=w463-h334" width="463" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">The 28th Grand National Assembly Of Turkey</span></b></div></div><br /><br /><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">NATO will breathe a significant sigh of relief because if Erdogan hadn't have won the Presidency & the Parliament, you could lay money on the Turkish military intervening. The EU on the other hand will be disappointed as they were hoping for a more 'european'' President & Parliament.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhXR52dHEnfqXcHbUqEyFcn_dWP6w0MshcxnPHH82bUXQoa2zeK9pY68uDt3d6Na2Fm4p0G0ozZi3f5y5FcNZTV3K5FvoLvASSqlXywOYCqlLBDCsNYkt-YnMtdMIre6hSneCDswJV7eRGeCPL5r5DqLwJFAjEPEOkrmwWrs5Hu88KzsRpE-Ri447iXLg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="900" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhXR52dHEnfqXcHbUqEyFcn_dWP6w0MshcxnPHH82bUXQoa2zeK9pY68uDt3d6Na2Fm4p0G0ozZi3f5y5FcNZTV3K5FvoLvASSqlXywOYCqlLBDCsNYkt-YnMtdMIre6hSneCDswJV7eRGeCPL5r5DqLwJFAjEPEOkrmwWrs5Hu88KzsRpE-Ri447iXLg" width="313" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-33863759923058938332023-05-23T17:15:00.016+01:002023-06-05T14:19:46.133+01:002023 (MAY) GREEK LEGISLATIVE ELECTION<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Parliamentary elections were held in Greece</span><span style="background-color: white;"> on 21 May 2023.</span><span style="background-color: white;"> All 300 seats in the <span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellenic_Parliament"><b>Greek</b></a></span></span><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hellenic_Parliament"><b><span style="background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);"> P</span>arliament</b></a></span><span style="background-color: white;"><b> </b>were contested. Prime Minister Mitsotakis's</span><span style="background-color: white;"> centre-right <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democracy_(Greece)"><b><span style="color: #2b00fe;">New Democracy</span></b></a> </span><span style="background-color: white;"> comprehensively routed its main rivals losing some seats despite increasing it's percentage share of the vote.<br /><br />This election was held under a new system with a 3% electoral thereshold</span></span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">(Greece used a straightforward PR system for this election unlike previous elections)</span></span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">. It also ditched the 50-seat majority bonus usually awarded to the largest party which had been in place since 1990. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #202122;">New Democracy's campaign focused on tax cuts for people and businesses, further privatisations, controling the borders, illegal immigration and foreign workers </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(including those from EU countries)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;">, foreign and domestic investment promises and lower unemployment promises, as well the economy in general and </span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #202122;">and the liberalisation and opening of Greece worldwide to foreign trade and foreign investement, no matter what the EU says </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(isn't this mostly what Truss wanted to do?)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;">. Their main rival - the radical Left </span><span><b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syriza" style="color: #2b00fe;">Syrizia</a> </b>of Alexis Tsisparis, campaigned mainly over the housing shortage, wire-tapping scandals and the problems being encountered by the middle class <i><span style="color: #444444;">(the left wing? Campaigning for the middle class and middle class policies? Hmmmm, now where have I seen that recently)</span>. </i>It's vote share fell by a third. The third largest party - the socialist-green <b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PASOK">PASOK</a></span></u></b> <i style="color: #444444;">(once upon a time the largest party until it bankrupted the country) </i><span>campaigned on green issues and healthcare. It increased it's seats and vote-share. The other two parties winning seats were the Greek Communist Party</span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><b><u><span style="color: #2b00fe;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Greece">KKE</a></span></u></b><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span>and the far-Right</span><span style="color: #444444;"> </span><span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Solution" style="color: #2b00fe; font-weight: bold; text-decoration-line: underline;">EL</a>. There were 30 other parties and some independents also stood but they won no seats after failing to meet the 3% cut-off threshold.<br /><br /><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtgVWmL3wb0sCTBu2WIek5LcdpYeapQlNCF4dGRc4fCmSfmgicN8f35wwum-lwFNNMfyjttMc2tYpsf6pDYX5Do68wpafCblPMb08PXm7ANt9PTbnZU6tL7GDE5m3_pjKZpsR1L-RgrZTSCGmKuGWe89GNNLV1OyKVqcbwkps66dG1UIVkEEHEmdaLhQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="152" data-original-width="220" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtgVWmL3wb0sCTBu2WIek5LcdpYeapQlNCF4dGRc4fCmSfmgicN8f35wwum-lwFNNMfyjttMc2tYpsf6pDYX5Do68wpafCblPMb08PXm7ANt9PTbnZU6tL7GDE5m3_pjKZpsR1L-RgrZTSCGmKuGWe89GNNLV1OyKVqcbwkps66dG1UIVkEEHEmdaLhQ" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;">Prime Minister Mitsotakis </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(ND)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;"> has declared victory, adding he will move for a yet another snap election, to be held in late June in order to seek an absolute and clear majority - “Greece needs a government that believes in reforms, and this cannot happen with a fragile government. New Democracy has the approval of the citizens to govern independently and strongly.” The new election will be held under a slightly altered system whereby</span></span></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #202122;"> the party coming first will receive 20 extra seats and then a new sliding scale giving all parties receiving between 25% and 40% of the vote one seat for every half percentage point in this range </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(up to 30 seats)</span></i><span style="color: #202122;">, before the proper proportional distribution across all parties for the remaining 250 seats begins. This would in effect give the largest party somewhere between 20 & 50 extra seats on top of their share from the remaining 250 - and indeed, on this elections figures, ND would in fact take all 50 top-up seats as well as 40.8% of the remaining 250 or 102 seats which would have given them152/300.</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span><span><span style="color: #202122;"><br />Voting in Greece is theoretically mandatory and all adults are automatically registered on the Electoral Register, however the penalties for not voting are never enforced. Really compulsory registration is actually used - along with compulsory national dentity cards, as a method of monitoring where everyone is.</span></span></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span><span><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span><span><span style="color: #202122;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-10255887963422267012023-05-21T12:39:00.013+01:002023-05-25T10:51:07.146+01:00NORTHERN IRELAND LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS, MAY 2023<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;">The 2023 Northern Ireland Local Elections were held on 18 May 2023.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;"> The elections were delayed by two weeks to avoid overlapping with the coronation of HRH King Charles III. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #202122;"> Following the elections, Sinn Fein </span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #202122;">became the largest party in local government for the first time, taking the largest number of council seats </span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(144/462) </span><span>and the largest share of the first preference vote <i><span style="color: #444444;">(30.9%)</span></i>. </span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span><br /></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span>As is normal in Northern Irish politics, tribalism plays the significant part in the choice of a voter's parties and then socio-economic class plays a role within that choice - meaning very very few voters will switch directly from green to orange or vice versa. The council of Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon was the onlly council where the largest party changed across the 'divide', changing from DUP to Sinn Fein, although the council of Derry City & Strabane went from Sinn Fein/SDLP coalition to Sinn Fein.<br /><br />The sudden 'growth' in Sinn Fein's vote share over the last two years demonstrates how - in PR-based elections using the<span style="color: #2b00fe;"><u><a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/single-transferable-vote/"><b> Single Transferable Vote</b></a></u></span> system such as the Locals and Assembly, they have learnt to game the system to their advantage and they spend a lot of time explaining to their supporters the most advantageous sequence in which to number the candidates in their particular areas.<br /><br />On current trends, I expect several loyalist parties such as UUP, TUV & PUP - along with some marginal parties to amalgamate with DUP over the next few years. Similarly I wouldn't be surprised of SDLP didn't do like wise with Sinn Fein. I doubt whether the other miniscule nationalist parties - such as Aontu, IRSP etc would do likewise because they exist south of the border as well.<br /><br />On these results, I fully expect Sinn Fein to mount a major campaign for a referendum to leave the United Kingdom within 10 years<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (re-unification is a separate matter and that would probably require a separate referendum between North & South)</span></i>. The UK government position remains one of 'while the majority wish to remain British, we stay. If the majority decide they no longer wish to be British, they are free to leave'. Personally, once the northern nationalists realise that re-unification means an awful lot of public sector jobs disappear & core council services would be privatised to align with the Republic and that they will kiss good bye to the NHS and move to the Republic's system of mutualised compulsory private health insurance, I doubt very much they will vote to leave the UK.<br /><br /></span></span></span></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXXgAkndw3QcnCMPZJw34gtwV5iF8CylH9QY3CBkfNvn83OX6yTwatn2OVmcT62oJj443zExoFcCKsDTtvTcpVzWrc58E8cCuY7MbA_qSSnMw4D5-uGzk0M5WMVi1EPnLUEOp-huFsGP1pv9d1173fXbUp8vzqOCVMVxMiF9HTwa0rXTP7z97B1ioGBg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="427" data-original-width="695" height="311" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXXgAkndw3QcnCMPZJw34gtwV5iF8CylH9QY3CBkfNvn83OX6yTwatn2OVmcT62oJj443zExoFcCKsDTtvTcpVzWrc58E8cCuY7MbA_qSSnMw4D5-uGzk0M5WMVi1EPnLUEOp-huFsGP1pv9d1173fXbUp8vzqOCVMVxMiF9HTwa0rXTP7z97B1ioGBg=w505-h311" width="505" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwqgMxg9G-k8c3kxbMHIKQe4COTaP6ItVIrpLl16DaTeRiKezGpJ2H_80bzbbVhwjqLR9gRkodS53IHkEp_D3CKUY6mwJjt8X8VQbZCgUJg22LJn8MDjRdqo2Tco8JcYnVKmA1qA5R44mMptJ0-aReJOWL2Q-P-F6T6e2Rqcteu4CY1-H7Rarlpb7aKg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="797" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwqgMxg9G-k8c3kxbMHIKQe4COTaP6ItVIrpLl16DaTeRiKezGpJ2H_80bzbbVhwjqLR9gRkodS53IHkEp_D3CKUY6mwJjt8X8VQbZCgUJg22LJn8MDjRdqo2Tco8JcYnVKmA1qA5R44mMptJ0-aReJOWL2Q-P-F6T6e2Rqcteu4CY1-H7Rarlpb7aKg=w567-h280" width="567" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiX0Gjqkh-tLOEFSD_RfQR9hOzm4P73iqyNXbQy0LnuVdy6uV3qiO5zYO_texunEHuV5JNhlginhYKzMFHCckB0J4ueRf3sGkvATY02JmzwWHmyJqfSiMLQ6q-f3SiwzQK2B71P0CQf0l4Hmikels3aGFtIdElBATrqy2P1XhDZ2R3BQx7-qRH26C3qew" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="823" height="385" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiX0Gjqkh-tLOEFSD_RfQR9hOzm4P73iqyNXbQy0LnuVdy6uV3qiO5zYO_texunEHuV5JNhlginhYKzMFHCckB0J4ueRf3sGkvATY02JmzwWHmyJqfSiMLQ6q-f3SiwzQK2B71P0CQf0l4Hmikels3aGFtIdElBATrqy2P1XhDZ2R3BQx7-qRH26C3qew=w599-h385" width="599" /></a></div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgNNvKXeUtVFhmCTKP7t_OFeriXVM9cI8ld5J43fK4heq4FMbWBC8MQkIqbfL57V3HnKr5zD4y0DqHT7GkyjgbybTL1tG9AJRp_kuTPhTjlv4Gj2XxXujw36hXv1x5E4N9caZo0dT9ciiMtKwsHXh2YeqxaQ8ihR8QCAEclXfvwVGqfaQ3jcSOMfuYjAw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="343" data-original-width="610" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgNNvKXeUtVFhmCTKP7t_OFeriXVM9cI8ld5J43fK4heq4FMbWBC8MQkIqbfL57V3HnKr5zD4y0DqHT7GkyjgbybTL1tG9AJRp_kuTPhTjlv4Gj2XxXujw36hXv1x5E4N9caZo0dT9ciiMtKwsHXh2YeqxaQ8ihR8QCAEclXfvwVGqfaQ3jcSOMfuYjAw=w529-h298" width="529" /></a></div><br /></span></div></span><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbTAHr93v9rkHblfxq_IffCOzdm9sTX06iw51xIqWP2vrA0bQoLC0WwdxmTjKWfkjY9Hzr028wMu7jsUufaDSlXHWlbaNHHTcXyOhi9vlsyIoNcC8u8Gfcq-1KfaV4_NZaTOXP3TQd5BgHO0Oc8Qx8K2Xwd2p9BgbuLEGaOUFd-f82bCdnVha04lg-9A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="179" data-original-width="281" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbTAHr93v9rkHblfxq_IffCOzdm9sTX06iw51xIqWP2vrA0bQoLC0WwdxmTjKWfkjY9Hzr028wMu7jsUufaDSlXHWlbaNHHTcXyOhi9vlsyIoNcC8u8Gfcq-1KfaV4_NZaTOXP3TQd5BgHO0Oc8Qx8K2Xwd2p9BgbuLEGaOUFd-f82bCdnVha04lg-9A" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-7108800737113270842023-05-08T11:17:00.043+01:002023-06-05T14:01:08.290+01:00 ENGLISH LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS, MAY 2023<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I thought I would take a quick look at the English local election results and try to put them in a bit of context.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">The Tories took a serious drubbing, however Labour failed to make any significant headway on vote share compared to last year's local's. Labour took 536 seats <i><span style="color: #444444;">(well short of the 1500 they needed to take to be 100% on target to win the next election outright)</span></i> and gained control of 22 extra councils. The Tories lost 1058 seats <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(not as bad as their worst case scenario, but worse than the 800 losses they were hoping for)</i></span> and lost control of 33 councils. The Lib Dems put in a very solid performance taking 405 seats and gaining control of an extra 12 councils. Statistically, the Greens performed best of all taking 241 seats <i><span style="color: #444444;">(more than doubling their total)</span></i> and taking control of one council - their first ever.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">These were the first elections held in England under the new requirement for voters to show ID. The impact of voter ID was negligable and just over half of the very very small number turned away with incorrect /no ID, retur</span><span style="font-family: arial;">ned later with it.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> It wasn't a particulalrly high threshold anyway and people unable to meet it would struggle nowadays to register for a GP, claim benefits, attend a job interview, open a bank account, take out a mortgage/tenancy or credit agreement or even get a job as a minimum waged security guard on a supermarket doorway. Most of those who turned up with no ID were believed to be mostly <a href="https://www.no2id.net/"><b>No2ID</b></a> activists and such like 'chancing their arm' and hoping to cause a scene. Northern Ireland has had voter ID since 2002 after it was introduced by the then Westminster Labour government at the insistance of Sinn Fein, SDLP and the DUP. SNP-run Scotland & Labour-run Wales were planning to introduce it anyway for their next regional & council elections, so England was very much the odd man out not just in the UK but across most of Europe as a whole. Comparing the number of people on the Eletoral Register for the areas where voting took place with the number of people who were turned away and failed to return later shows 0.18% of those entitled to vote in these elections didn't because they did not have the required ID at all or did not return with it later.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Tally for seats/councils was:- </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRF9yz-iIlr0PH16nbNUGuk2aaen2zbONy82SHMAFRMOpDDuRad-YjGLjbzwovH343Bv2kGO9C0uazWrk05kBty7kS-OIkgIC74zjtny8LICuNdh9uLzO3cheSBeP1GcX46BsuQOEzO5z91sqoR-DI8HT4ZA50dVB_DHoC_d_ijLymkHbhmZnmU350Dw/s321/grid.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="290" data-original-width="321" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRF9yz-iIlr0PH16nbNUGuk2aaen2zbONy82SHMAFRMOpDDuRad-YjGLjbzwovH343Bv2kGO9C0uazWrk05kBty7kS-OIkgIC74zjtny8LICuNdh9uLzO3cheSBeP1GcX46BsuQOEzO5z91sqoR-DI8HT4ZA50dVB_DHoC_d_ijLymkHbhmZnmU350Dw/s320/grid.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><div style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i>(correct as at time of publication. There<br /></i></span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><i>were still 2 dozen or so seats being counted)</i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The turn-out - usually low in local elections anyway, was absolutely dire and averaged just 30%, with some wards even lower than that. In my area for example, the neighbouring ward of Goole South recorded a turn-out of just 14% and some areas were even lower than that.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">These councils were last contested in 2019 (and to a greater extent 2015 & 2011) and direct comparisons in vote share are below:-</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOycL8snaf3FLGdWeAUYmb9tqnc-ECD3XsWIqf4TpaewgcnVyhsATkeHxpyGryE8-C2YfzlnohtN_1WzyL8S0XkUjbvDKLIBq77xi4aLXZaqJB2zmN7jB4LL-ngnsjgVHYBbuplX0viYhqjBYaGZsOd1GgDxbZ8nOPivDU9zCEngsJLyN3VMiOZmXqjw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="111" data-original-width="434" height="114" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOycL8snaf3FLGdWeAUYmb9tqnc-ECD3XsWIqf4TpaewgcnVyhsATkeHxpyGryE8-C2YfzlnohtN_1WzyL8S0XkUjbvDKLIBq77xi4aLXZaqJB2zmN7jB4LL-ngnsjgVHYBbuplX0viYhqjBYaGZsOd1GgDxbZ8nOPivDU9zCEngsJLyN3VMiOZmXqjw=w444-h114" width="444" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were local elections in some areas last year as well and vote share for those in comparison to 2023 was:-</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj47dBLj--4GltSFzhaSVsL6zmTVkS2VprbJZSB6ZrL2rvquM7VGYwkLecKowHhCPGhMHLX5jkDt62YT5HiwRNTu2B2RX8dhgRLDH7Cj7pXT1WB2ESJD5djLVQEySGS5iYiSMxc2INo_BlIgHq5DngGxmUUtv6aMl16btWIQbRZTXHXswM4b7-Yc4PLIg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="112" data-original-width="275" height="116" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj47dBLj--4GltSFzhaSVsL6zmTVkS2VprbJZSB6ZrL2rvquM7VGYwkLecKowHhCPGhMHLX5jkDt62YT5HiwRNTu2B2RX8dhgRLDH7Cj7pXT1WB2ESJD5djLVQEySGS5iYiSMxc2INo_BlIgHq5DngGxmUUtv6aMl16btWIQbRZTXHXswM4b7-Yc4PLIg=w287-h116" width="287" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br />Although turn-outs at local level are always poor in comparison to turn outs for General Elections </span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(and this one was particularly dire)</i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">, it's always worth comparing where the parties stand in comparison to the latest round of opinion polls:-</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiKzfVWhh4Vzs1kF3NrF1i-FpDymuqufoaHevpAKK79_EAPFU92BM_G9gTYJt5S11MELbnM_S8okSm6BjLe0NE_B8gD33E4JXOezPd23VPjQYVBNgIKysV5YyWBP8fZKFTxB9TkdLTTglO5YmT-gtwIYVit3aO5PF6XmVZltthtX1y4v2D3oc44LaLHcA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="130" data-original-width="388" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiKzfVWhh4Vzs1kF3NrF1i-FpDymuqufoaHevpAKK79_EAPFU92BM_G9gTYJt5S11MELbnM_S8okSm6BjLe0NE_B8gD33E4JXOezPd23VPjQYVBNgIKysV5YyWBP8fZKFTxB9TkdLTTglO5YmT-gtwIYVit3aO5PF6XmVZltthtX1y4v2D3oc44LaLHcA=w392-h130" width="392" /></a></div><br /><br /></div></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In addition, there were 4 Mayoral elections. Bedford went from Lib Dem to Tory, Middlesboro from Independent to Labour, whilst Leicester & Mansfields were Labour holds.<br /><br />Two factors have proved to be very evident here - Tory protest voters switching to the Lib Dems <i><span style="color: #444444;">(these usually 'return to the fold' come election time)</span></i>, and Tory switchers going to Reform and even the Greens <i><span style="color: #444444;">(these are harder to win back as these are usually </span></i></span><span style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>ideaology/</i></span></span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">doctrine-related)</span></i><span style="font-family: arial;">. There is no great appetite for Labour despite their very well deserved 'crowing'.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Smart money is now being staked on the next General Election producing a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party but without a majority.<br /><br /><br /><b><u>Next Up, Northern Ireland<br /></u></b><br />The Northern Ireland 2023 local elections - delayed two weeks to avoid clashing with the Coronation and 'inflamming local sensitivities', will take place on the 18th May and involve all 11 councils. Of significance here is that their system uses the <a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/single-transferable-vote/"><b>Single Transferable Vote</b></a> <i><span style="color: #444444;">(STV)</span></i> method, with voters numbering candidates in order of preference. It will also be the first election to be held in UK where voters can vote on-line.<br /><br />Their current council situation is:-<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3fHb7Skzc2O96E0RVB1Bxmt3JOX9uE3m2OfAnd3CWFR7ohtEkTSdtydzBu3av0QVqTjXVslxHKcxsr4DaY_kmta9vGuqJ35youiRPqDZsNxoXZYoeVYf_CTu-nFHELvf1SjI9at2RbJVEc_GAJSUuO2pOy2NXx9RppO5NG44pKUwZwDpeeGIZPuGEfw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="412" data-original-width="538" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3fHb7Skzc2O96E0RVB1Bxmt3JOX9uE3m2OfAnd3CWFR7ohtEkTSdtydzBu3av0QVqTjXVslxHKcxsr4DaY_kmta9vGuqJ35youiRPqDZsNxoXZYoeVYf_CTu-nFHELvf1SjI9at2RbJVEc_GAJSUuO2pOy2NXx9RppO5NG44pKUwZwDpeeGIZPuGEfw=w524-h402" width="524" /></a><span face="sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #202122; font-size: 12.6px; text-align: start;"> </span></div><div style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #6fa8dc; font-size: xx-small;">a. Reduced to 12 due to defections.</span></span></div><div style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #6fa8dc; font-size: xx-small;">b. Reduced to 14 due to defections.</span></span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #6fa8dc; font-size: xx-small;">c. Increased to 16 due to defections.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #6fa8dc; font-size: xx-small;">d. Reduced to 13 due to defections.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><br /><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Current polling is </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last local elections in 2019):-<br /></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">SF: 29.8%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"> </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+6.6)<br /></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;">DUP: 23.0%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i> (-1.1)<br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 14.5%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (+3.3)<br /></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">UUP: 12.8%</span><i style="font-style: italic;"> (-1.3)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">SDLP:</span><span style="color: black;"><i> </i>8.3%</span><span style="font-style: normal;"><i> </i><i>(-3.7)<br /></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">TUV: 5.0%</span><span style="font-style: normal;"><i> </i><i>(+2.8)<br /></i></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">GPNI: 2.7%</span><i> </i><i style="color: black; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.6.)<br /></span></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Oth: 5.2%</span><i style="font-style: italic;"> (-5.6)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><i>(<span style="color: #444444;">Unionist 40.8%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></i></span></span></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></div><p></p>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-11041624024605041202023-05-02T21:19:00.010+01:002023-05-07T15:33:54.607+01:00OPINION POLLING FOR APRIL 2023<div style="text-align: center;"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEit5jDMqsMSxO_WH-RQYLObYsi2iiR5K4jMZpfsUpiWqgbjhB6rdlo5mYqG5_Sqz1nO7ijulh1ecyV6n9wO8D3OBkZPuVG5yiROKIcB_vYYgOn50m7pv2uzYlL6UL7L303sJm-HZrE_0BtBjkNv9IQQnQJFnDf4bWnXQcYBl0Kbgi7p9p83EnKChEGyYg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="237" data-original-width="207" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEit5jDMqsMSxO_WH-RQYLObYsi2iiR5K4jMZpfsUpiWqgbjhB6rdlo5mYqG5_Sqz1nO7ijulh1ecyV6n9wO8D3OBkZPuVG5yiROKIcB_vYYgOn50m7pv2uzYlL6UL7L303sJm-HZrE_0BtBjkNv9IQQnQJFnDf4bWnXQcYBl0Kbgi7p9p83EnKChEGyYg" width="210" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQFVbC5N-UqqXXmFPR4AartOKDZ07qs6soMHs64gLbbM0BfiLEQGkFcHyb-onkO_dBtuROqUJaGLA5mzZzP-lLjvpnmNUkkTM6AwgdyEz5Sh81lMIoSR1nJoWNvSAv-18GVucaVjlYHzZAyXHqWzhqsz0mKBiQXDIPrJLyh0FQpuWViuDx1ZuAMKyNqw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="238" data-original-width="207" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQFVbC5N-UqqXXmFPR4AartOKDZ07qs6soMHs64gLbbM0BfiLEQGkFcHyb-onkO_dBtuROqUJaGLA5mzZzP-lLjvpnmNUkkTM6AwgdyEz5Sh81lMIoSR1nJoWNvSAv-18GVucaVjlYHzZAyXHqWzhqsz0mKBiQXDIPrJLyh0FQpuWViuDx1ZuAMKyNqw" width="209" /></a><br /><br /></div><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFVjb4yftT1drrL49rWToVTZqx3zzLLaOwm3PGSZBUltngDXr1tRjdmyDpfskpOzqAorZWiFdrOL08KPsU3ts5DKXcMksj1ra-Fn2yn_omuclVSx986RPmnLnTbMesjTy9fuXRnG0Yrlfw3xu74ZktMGlgsc8rU5zr7sOOVWsewVOZX53ch6D-cnJG3w" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhm_EPNLMxQDn2xUGocVr_10x1Gls-OZhZWGYPIIeO0izhW3_mjW8k2CpJ9ZJPnyTQXPpS4Ozz1Ll6x4zBHXoebkZ8DKuDJbdSghzwu_PIqWtwzdR7y4rnVIpdUHa-kjvhhIHFGfriVQECJafHMBputX1nQRCJE7bqQyJlfyYsggMMDR7RB9ZyBl9wjw" width="320" /></a></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across <b>APRIL</b></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 27 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 28.7% </span><i style="background-color: transparent; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.2) </span></i></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 44.4% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.6) </span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 9.8 </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.9) </span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 4.9% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3) <br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 5.9% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 6.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.5)<br /></i></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for April:- 15.63% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.92)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 25-32%, Labour between 41-48</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 8-12</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">%</span></i>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 26 polls and on one occasion showed a 23% lead <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(Omnisis, 12-13 Apr)</i></span>. Labour led in every poll with leads of between 12-23%.<br /><br />If a General Election were conducted on these <b>APRIL</b> figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L414, C165, SNP34 , LD15, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker<b> </b>1 with Labour having a majority of 178 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(refer to last month's figure to see how a shift of a couple of percent alters things considerably)</span></i>.<br /><br />Another month, another resignation, this time nasty glarer Dominic Raab. The Civil Service 'blob' now slithers and slops on to it's next target - Alok Sharma <i><span style="color: #444444;">(work quality expectations too high)</span></i> and is even starting to devour itself lining-up a go at top civil servant Simon Case<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (the Cabinet Secretary)</span></i>, for co-operating with the tories basically, which is actually his job.<br /><br />Labour has it's own problems with two Inquiries into Sue Gray <i><span style="color: #444444;">(of Partygate fame)</span></i> due this month and both expected to find heavily against her involvement with Labour, delaying her appointment as Starmer's Chief-Of-Staff by a year at least and possibly longer. Starmer had rather naively publicly staked his integrity on there being no involvement between her and his party while 'Partygate' was being compiled. Both reports are expected to find the exact opposite by quite some margin. He will of course deny all knowledge <i><span style="color: #444444;">(as he normally does)</span></i> sacrificing a flunky ot two in the process, before adding a couple of years down the line "I accept full responsibility" <i style="color: #444444;">(as he normally does), </i>somehow deluding himself that accepting full responsibility consists of waiting a couple of years or so then merely saying it. It doesn't at this level of politics - acceptance means you resign, or people no longer find you credible.<br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Comparisons</u></b></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: </span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(256 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br />Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2022 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2023 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(128 polls)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.0%, Lab 46.2%, LDem 9.2%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 5.9%, Oth 6.6%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 19.16%</span></div></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Polling figures for Apr <span style="color: #444444;"><i>( 27 polls)</i></span><br /></span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 28.7%, Lab 44.4%, LDem 9.8%, Grn 4.9%, Rfm 5.9%, Oth 6.3%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con: 15.63%<br /><br /><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div><b><u>Food</u></b> inflation rates, March 2023 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(published in April)</i></span>. The British Retail Consortium believe that UK inflation will drop sharply from next month. I remain to be convinced:-</div><div><br />Turkey 67.9% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.4)</span></i></div><div>Hungary 44.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)</span></i></div><div>Slovakia 28.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4)</span></i></div><div>Lithuania 27.6% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.6)</span></i></div><div>Ukraine 26.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-5.0)</span></i><br />Serbia 25.4% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.8)</span></i></div><div>Estonia 24.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</span></i></div><div>Latvia 24.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.2)</span></i></div><div>Poland 24.0% <i>(nc)</i></div><div>Czech Republic 23.5% <i style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</i><br />Moldova 22.2%<i style="color: #444444;"> (-4.3)</i></div><div>Romania 21.6% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.8)</span></i></div><div>Germany 21.2% <i style="color: #444444;">(-0.6)</i></div><div>Bulgaria 21.0%<i style="color: #444444;"> (-2.8)</i></div><div>Sweden 19.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.3)</span></i></div><div>European Union <i><span style="color: #444444;">(as a whole)</span></i> 19.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.6)</i></span></div><div>Portugal 19.6%<i style="color: #444444;"> (-1.8)</i></div><div>United Kingdom 19.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.1)</span></i> ⬅️</div><div>Bosnia 19.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.8)</i></span></div><div>Netherlands 17.8% <i>(-0.1)</i></div><div>Croatia 17.4% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.4)</span></i></div><div>Belgium 16.6%<i> <span style="color: #444444;">(-0.4)</span></i></div><div>Spain 16.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-10.1)</i></span></div><div><span>Finland 16.2%</span><i style="color: #444444;"> (-0.1)</i></div><div>Denmark 15.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0)</span></i></div><div>France 14.9%<i style="color: #444444;"> (-1.1)</i><br />Austria 14.5%<i style="color: #444444;"> (-1.7)<br /></i>Montenegro 14.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-9.3)</span></i><br />Greece 14.3%<i style="color: #444444;"> (-0.5)</i></div><div>Ireland 13.1% <i style="color: #444444;">(nc)</i><br />Malta 12.9%<i style="color: #444444;"> (-0.3)</i></div><div>Italy 12.6%<i style="color: #666666;"> </i><i style="color: #444444;">(-0.6)</i></div><div>Iceland 12.5%<span><i style="color: #444444;"> (+0.2)</i><br />Albania 11.0%</span><i style="color: #444444;"> (-2.5)</i><br />Belorus 9.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-4.1)</span></i></div><div>Norway 8.6% <i style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)</i></div><div>Cyprus 7.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.5)</span></i><br />Switzerland 6.3% <i style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)</i><br />Russia 2.6%<i style="color: #444444;"> (-6.7)</i></div><div><i style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">(Source: Trading Economics April 2023)</span></i></div></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><b><u>MAY LOCAL ELECTIONS - THU 04 MAY<br /></u></b><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Voters in some parts of England and Northern Ireland will choose new councillors in May. The May local elections a few months ago were looking like an absolute nightmare for the Tories with </span><span><span style="font-family: arial;">around 8,000 council seats up for grabs at exactly the wrong time for them. Since then, Labour's poll lead had reduced significantly. For Labour to be a 100% nailed-on certainty for the next election with a healthy majority, they need to gain around 1,500 - 2,000 of them on top of what they already hold given the geographic location of where these are and the fact that the last time these were up for grabs 4 years ago, people were turning against Corbyn. </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">The Tories a few months ago were of the belief they would lose 1,500 across the board to different parties, however analysts believe they will now only lose as few as 800. </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">As we go to print, the very latest and final predictions are saying Labour will only gain around 400 seats - which not to put to fine a point on it, would be a disaster for Starmer's ambitions.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">They also believe that Labour will fare badly in several councils around the edges of Greater London because of Khan's congestion charge and the way it will affect commuters from oputside, and likewise Birmingham and Manchester - where even Mayor Burnham delaying it doesn't seem to be placating the outright opposition to it. .</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Be an interesting Friday as results start to come in. That said, you can never read to much into local elections - turn-outs are always abysmal <i><span style="color: #444444;">(usually around the 30% mark at best)</span></i>, in some areas people will be voting because of specific local issues <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(such as congestion charging, immigration centres etc), </span><span>which will not be an issue at a subsequent General Election, whereas other will be voting over national issues even though they have nothing to do with politcs at this level. Even 'feel good' bounces (<i><span style="color: #444444;">such as major public and sporting events)</span></i> have significant distorting effects because of such low turn outs. </span></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; list-style-image: url("icon_ec_white_on_purple_circle12.svg");"><li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 12px;">Estimated Labour lead of 5% over the Conservatives in local council seats up for election in May, compared with a Conservative lead of 3% in the same seats in May 2019</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 12px;">Labour to gain over 400 council seats</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 12px;">Conservatives to lose over 250 council seats</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 12px;">Labour to gain majority control over 10 councils</li><li style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 12px;">Conservatives to lose majority control of four councils</li></ul><br />The last time this tranche were voted on was May 2019. Below is the 2019 result and the prediction for 2023. <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHktAM1tli0R2DkP74M1mzzkzlTNVRr9N1gdFpcpXQxI9ihb6G-l6NPVzfb8r_ntErOZIfSDTicgYq2T_GiUgARtz_FJeEgQ6lqfABrXksamqZ9AlxWWySMd3rhHi9ihR-2EQOJCZtxw0lKE-b-oAv-P7SvAVNE2WShKkGc73U0qcZUQj4LT1NbMZ83Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="739" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHktAM1tli0R2DkP74M1mzzkzlTNVRr9N1gdFpcpXQxI9ihb6G-l6NPVzfb8r_ntErOZIfSDTicgYq2T_GiUgARtz_FJeEgQ6lqfABrXksamqZ9AlxWWySMd3rhHi9ihR-2EQOJCZtxw0lKE-b-oAv-P7SvAVNE2WShKkGc73U0qcZUQj4LT1NbMZ83Q=w618-h397" width="618" /></a><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br /><br /><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div><div style="clear: both;"><br /><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">The problems dogging the SNP continue, with fresh investigations into a further 'missing' £400,000 over the years.</span></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><br />There was very little movement in the polls in Scotland, which the SNP will be glad about as it probably signals they are through the worst support-wise now.<br /><br />There were three Westminster polls released during the month </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">SNP: 37.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.7)<br /></span></i>SCon: 17.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)<br /></span></i>SLab: 30.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.9)<br /></i></span>SLD: 8.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.3)</span><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i>Oth: 6.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.8)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were three Holyrood polls released during the month <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 38.0/30.7%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.6/-1.3)</span></i><br />SCon: 16.7/17.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.3/-0.5)</span></i><br />SLab: 28.3/24.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.9/-2.7)</span></i><br />SLD: 9.0/9.7%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (+1.4/+1.7)</i></span><br />SGP: 2.5/10.3%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+-1.8/-0.3)</span></i><br />Oth: 4.2/5.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.9/+1.6)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three IndyRef polls released during the month </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 41.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.0)</span></i>, No: 47.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.8)</span></i> DK: 11.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.8)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 46.9%, No: 53.1%)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">Yes: 44.7%</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">No: 55.3% </i><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #444444; font-style: italic; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></div></div></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Westminster poll released during the month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-<br /></span></i><br /><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 44.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-6.0)<br /></span></i>Con: 24.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+4.5</span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;">)<br /></span></i>PC: 12.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)<br /></span></i>LDem: 7.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.5)<br /></span></i>Rfm 9.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5)<br /></span></i>Grn: 4.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0)<br /></span></i></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth 0.0%.<i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)<br /><br /></span></i></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month. <span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-</span></i><br /><br /><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Lab 41/32% </span>(-2.0/-7.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 21/22%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (+3.0/+4.0)<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid 20/23%<span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #666666;"> (nc/+3.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem 5/8% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0/+3.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 4/7% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(nc/+2.0)</span><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Rfm 8/7%<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (-1.0/+1.0)<br /></span>AWA -/-% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-/-)</span></i><br />UKIP -/-%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-/-)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div>Oth 1/8% <span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-6.0/+7.0)</span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Yes: 29% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+11.0)</span></i>, No: 60% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+5.0), </span></i>DK:11% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-16.0)<br /></i></span><div>(Yes: 28.1%, No: 71.9%)</div><br /></span><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div><p></p><p></p><div><div><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;"><br /></span><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /><br /></b></b><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the new Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span>The DUP will not accept the Framework and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped and while the DUP is the largest Unionist party that is all there is to it unless No 10 bites the bullet and dissolves the Assembly. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though. For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again. </span></div></div></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during April.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Assembly poll released during April </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (first preference):-</span></i></p><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.6)<br /></span></i></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 25.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (+1.1)<br /></i></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 13.0%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-2.4)<br /></i></span></span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">UUP: 11.0%</span><i style="font-style: italic;"> (+0.3)<br /></i><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">SDLP:</span><span style="color: black;"><i> </i>7.0%</span><span style="font-style: normal;"><i> </i><i>(+0.3)<br /></i></span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">TUV: 7.0%</span><span style="font-style: normal;"><i> </i><i>(+2.2)<br /></i></span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">S-PBP: 1.0%</span><i> </i><i style="color: black; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.2)<br /></span></i><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Oth: 7.0%</span><i style="font-style: italic;"> (+1.1)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 43.0%, Nationalist 37.0%)</i></span></span></div><div><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></span><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></i><i><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></i></span><i style="font-family: arial;">UUP: 11.7%<br /></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></span></i></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 400; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div style="font-weight: 400;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="font-size: 14.85px; text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 33.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.3)</i></span></div><div>FF: 17.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.3)</i></span></div><div>FG: 19.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.3)</i></span></div><div>GP: 4.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.7)</i></span></div><div>LP: 3.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.3)</i></span></div><div>SD: 5.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.3)</i></span></div><div>S-PBP: 2.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.3)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 11.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.1)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div></div></div></div></div></b></div></span></div></span></div></div></div></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCOWqRBhR_ZSWETbB_xwx-VbQKOWT9yxxFwsBeXCPRmvLTaQiqODT9gaeCqRA3IIyNO8vwSImtxEmxVL88xIPH-zCuRYKfLM2ZPoTO00qsxGalYRXHs5Z5YyKCWj71ZDg6PSQLxHqsbbZrsRRUd_mkNzEgH1dMMYGkbx9I5y-SkcNcoO5D3XagurpqXg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="255" data-original-width="197" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCOWqRBhR_ZSWETbB_xwx-VbQKOWT9yxxFwsBeXCPRmvLTaQiqODT9gaeCqRA3IIyNO8vwSImtxEmxVL88xIPH-zCuRYKfLM2ZPoTO00qsxGalYRXHs5Z5YyKCWj71ZDg6PSQLxHqsbbZrsRRUd_mkNzEgH1dMMYGkbx9I5y-SkcNcoO5D3XagurpqXg=w281-h365" width="281" /></a></div></div><br /><b><span style="font-family: arial;">'God Save The King & Queen'</span></b></div><p></p>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-49673350174840857652023-04-03T19:39:00.006+01:002023-04-09T22:12:17.762+01:00OPINION POLLING FOR MARCH 2023<p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpdzR5M9hF2-4Ot0inwmrWOdPN--zdKGtOnLf_vKraEJWTWeWpioARsWvnh5AEEssGdC7o1MgY0ei7r9Vy0XMEYy4a50_hIAkmSzeHLV9w9Hea-zPo6lZ9qQv7t0zcRHnBojEm2qvE35cNI0cZIsVVCp508MGHFVlj_u8LldXpXPd1AJlBtjHkCvytNQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="232" data-original-width="199" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpdzR5M9hF2-4Ot0inwmrWOdPN--zdKGtOnLf_vKraEJWTWeWpioARsWvnh5AEEssGdC7o1MgY0ei7r9Vy0XMEYy4a50_hIAkmSzeHLV9w9Hea-zPo6lZ9qQv7t0zcRHnBojEm2qvE35cNI0cZIsVVCp508MGHFVlj_u8LldXpXPd1AJlBtjHkCvytNQ" width="206" /></a> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjUo7c-iVfGrloQD_ZyPLXGTB6MZJwA-KHN_4reMJxONF_dYzqO_XZeD06BehuWtk3LmuEinIFJEo2c6OAk5aTQfcGdp2_OFHA6_gNdzsp_LOOwkvgQnJWkgM8LBPOIwgobncIOKMfvKf1KsCjvqnio1wYno2COmb7pm1hs10p3ivMAedl3RUW-n8Z37g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="235" data-original-width="207" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjUo7c-iVfGrloQD_ZyPLXGTB6MZJwA-KHN_4reMJxONF_dYzqO_XZeD06BehuWtk3LmuEinIFJEo2c6OAk5aTQfcGdp2_OFHA6_gNdzsp_LOOwkvgQnJWkgM8LBPOIwgobncIOKMfvKf1KsCjvqnio1wYno2COmb7pm1hs10p3ivMAedl3RUW-n8Z37g=w216-h246" width="216" /></a><br /></div></div><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFVjb4yftT1drrL49rWToVTZqx3zzLLaOwm3PGSZBUltngDXr1tRjdmyDpfskpOzqAorZWiFdrOL08KPsU3ts5DKXcMksj1ra-Fn2yn_omuclVSx986RPmnLnTbMesjTy9fuXRnG0Yrlfw3xu74ZktMGlgsc8rU5zr7sOOVWsewVOZX53ch6D-cnJG3w" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhm_EPNLMxQDn2xUGocVr_10x1Gls-OZhZWGYPIIeO0izhW3_mjW8k2CpJ9ZJPnyTQXPpS4Ozz1Ll6x4zBHXoebkZ8DKuDJbdSghzwu_PIqWtwzdR7y4rnVIpdUHa-kjvhhIHFGfriVQECJafHMBputX1nQRCJE7bqQyJlfyYsggMMDR7RB9ZyBl9wjw" width="320" /></a></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> <b>MARCH</b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 42 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-style: normal;"> 27.5% </span><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.6)</span></i></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 46.0% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.3)</span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 8.9% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 5.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.1) <br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 5.6% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.4)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 6.8% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-nc)<br /></i></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for October:- 18.55% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.84)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 20-35%, Labour between 42</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">-51%</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 7</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">-11%</span></i>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 42 polls and breached 50% four times (however for the first time in a long time, more than half the polls showed them on 45% or less) and on three occasions showed a 26% lead <span style="color: #444444;"><i>( IpsosMORI, 22 Feb-01 Mar, Redfield & Wilton 05 Mar & YouGov 21-22 Mar)</i></span>. Labour led in every poll with leads of between 11%-26%.<br /><br />If a General Election were conducted on these <b>MARCH</b> figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L444, C133, SNP 37, LD14, PC2, G1, NI18, Speaker<b> </b>1 with Labour having a majority of 238 <i><span style="color: #444444;">(refer to last month's figure to see how a shift of a couple of percent alters things considerably)</span></i>.<br /><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span>The period of 'polldrums' appears to be over with the Tories now starting to claw back some of Labour's lead, at a rate that accelerated as the month went by. Although the monthly Tory/Lab figure was 27.5/46.0 in Labour's favour, the figure purely for the second half of the month was 27.9/45.6, and for the final week 28.2/45.3. This is undoubtedly a reflection of the public seeing things getting done regarding Northern Ireland and the 'boat crossers' etc. In addition, Starmer's continued insistance that a women can have a penis is starting to grate with the electorate along with his very obvious hesitancy to commit to anything at all along with contradictions among his inner circle over key subjects and where the money is to come from. </span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span>Interestingly, the major 'bookies' use statistical analysts <i><span style="color: #444444;">(some of the best paid in the country)</span></i> to study these sorts of things so that they can work out the odds to open the 'book' based on mathmatical probability. Although most people <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(myself included)</i> </span>assume the next election will take place around October 2024 with Labour achieving some sort of victory even if only a coalition, the Bookies analysts believe that the probablity curve shows mid/late Jan 2025 as the most likely time - and even go so far as to say a Tory majority of between 5 & 15.<br /><br /></span></span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Comparisons</u></b></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: </span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(256 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br />Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2022 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2023 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(102 polls)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 26.5%, Lab 46.8%, LDem 8.9%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 5.8%, Oth 6.7%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 21.23%</span></div></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Polling figures for Mar <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(42 polls)</i></span><br /></span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 27.5%, Lab 46.0%, LDem 8.9%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 5.6%, Oth 6.8%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con: 21.39%</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />Inflation continues to be a problem across the western word and OPEC+ cutting production yet again in order to try and force a 20% rise in the price of oil is not going to help efforts to dampen it. During March, the latest food inflation figures were released and the UK is roughly in the middle across europe as a whole bearing in mind most of europe uses CPIH to measure it as opposed to our CPI which is around 2% higher, so in actual fact we are performing better than the figures portray. <br /><br /><div><b><u>Food</u></b> inflation rates, Feb 2023 (published in March):-</div><div><br /></div><div>Lithuania 30.2%</div><div>Slovakia 27.8%</div><div>Spain 26.6%</div><div>Latvia 25.3%</div><div>Estonia 25.2%</div><div>Poland 24.0%</div><div>Czech Republic 23.9%</div><div>Romania 22.4%</div><div>Germany 21.8%</div><div>Sweden 21.0%</div><div>European Union (as a whole) 19.1%</div><div>United Kingdom 18.0% ⬅️</div><div>Netherlands 17.9%<br />Rest of Europe.</div><div><i><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;">(Source: Trading Economics February 2023)</span></i></div></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br /><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div><div style="clear: both;"><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">The new SNP leader and Scotland's new First Minister is Humza Yousaf, a mulsim scottish-born Glaswegian of Pakistani-Kenyan heritage. The runner-up Kate Forbes was widely tipped to become leader however a combination of tactical voting <span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(easy to do in a party with a membership base so small and using a first preference system)</span><span> combined with reluctance of some Forbes supporters to vote for her following the Scottish Greens threat to leave the ruling group and cause a Scottish election, saw Yousaf sneak past the post after second preference votes were tallied. It does not augur well that he received less than half the vote on first preference despite there only being three candidates and only narrowly squeaked it on second preference. Following his outbursts in the Scottish Parliament last week, I personally do not expect him to remain in post as either head of the SNP or Scottish First Minister for very long before he faces a coup of some sort.<br /></span></span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span>Despite this being the easiest leadership election of any mainstream political party in the UK ever to vote in <i><span style="color: #444444;">(voting was almost exclusively electronic)</span></i>, the turn-out of 70% - a seemingly respectable
figure, was actually the lowest of any mainstream UK party leadership race ever. The results of the leadership election were as
follows:-</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><u>First Round:-</u></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;">Humza
Yousaf 48.2%<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;">Kate
Forbes 40.7%<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;">Ash
Regan 11.1%<br /><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Regan eliminated and her supporters second preference votes tallied to the two remaining)</span></i><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><u>Second
Round:-</u><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;">Humza
Yousaf 52.1%<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;">Kate
Forbes 47.9%<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;">Yousaf
wins, 52% to 48%.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><o:p><br /></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;">A total
of 50,494 ballot papers containing a valid vote were received – 48,645 cast
electronically, and 1,849 by post<i><span style="color: #444444;">(*)</span></i> There were 3 rejected postal ballot
papers.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;">Turn-out
70%.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(* </span><span style="color: #444444;">Some
very very restricted postal voting was allowed to accommodate people in areas
with no internet access - such as some of the outlying islands etc.)<br /><br /></span></i></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #444444; font-style: italic; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><span style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiqzGqQ-oGVqhP-Gy5_oqdkcoDXnAmju3q1a4JIF6VCjVQuhkGWWMsXvLe5lTcZWvpaC5q1z2AxPhL-AqfcX6raDaSYphLPwDaLBhYZ8Z1XUwWsjvxVIkpR__H5TLCgrYrbNyNSG22RL6mxyJPSHn-snHUyqJ_zMrdGJQU725LvHGztdR1YqAL5P6k2Hw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="168" data-original-width="300" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjK9e0LWkjuHmsNrVeyWlyYiv2Pwrp1wGjs3YOOaIpxFoxxhHVWVUrPcigkBVtUHSAEAjATqLDr1Cis9mtAQtEyGMYmGayR2MXEvygBOjCBVCqM_6kruAupBg8NJNbeARbdghAAAmOMhDaKJYSikHzKiyTiRx3lMyr_GycVe76-Trvhtz25x1RJ983WnA" width="320" /></a></span></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: 8.0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: 0cm;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"></span></i><o:p></o:p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><b style="font-size: small; text-align: left;">Ecstatic SNP Members Celebrate As Yousaf Victory Announced</b></div></div></div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="clear: both;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><br /></span></div><br />There were five Westminster polls released during the month </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span>SNP: 39.4% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.2)<br /></span></i><span>SCon: 18.2% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.8)<br /></span></i><span>SLab: 31.2% </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.2)<br /></i></span><span>SLD: 6.0% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i><span>Oth: 5.2% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+.02)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were five Holyrood polls released during the month <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 39.6/32.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-2.4/-1.6)</span></i><br />SCon: 17.0/18.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2/+1.0)</span></i><br />SLab: 30.2/27.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.4/+0.2)</span></i><br />SLD: 7.6/8.0%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (-0.2/+0.4)</i></span><br />SGP: 4.3/10.6%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+0.7/-0.2)</span></i><br />Oth: 1.3/4.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.6/+0.2)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were seven IndyRef polls released during the month </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 43.7% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.3)</span></i>, No: 48.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.8)</span></i> DK: 8.2% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-3.1)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 47.6%, No: 52.4%)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i><br /><span><i style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">Yes: 44.7%</i><br /><i style="color: #444444;">No: 55.3% </i><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #444444; font-style: italic; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: small; text-align: left;"><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: small; text-align: left;"><br /></b></div></div></span></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westminster polls released during the month.</span><br /><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black;">There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.</span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no IndyRef polls released during the month.</span></span></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Con: 36.1%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">PC: 9.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">LDem: 6.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Grn: 1.0%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">BXP: 5.4%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Oth: 0.7%</span></i></p><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div><div><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div></div><p></p><p></p><div><div><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div><span><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;"><br /></span><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /><br /></b></b><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, with DUP's now steadfast opposition to the new Windsor Framework replacing their previous steadfast opposition to the Protocol.<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> </span>The DUP will not accept the Framework and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped and while the DUP is the largest Unionist party that is all there is to it unless No 10 bites the bullet and dissolves the Assembly. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though. For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again. </span></div></span></div></span></div><div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during Mar.</span></p><p style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Assembly poll released during Mar </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></p><div style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 30.6%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.4)<br /></span></i></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 23.9%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (-1.1)<br /></i></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 15.4%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> (+0.4)<br /></i></span></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal;">UUP: 11.3%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> <i>(+1.3)<br /></i></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal;">SDLP:</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px;"> 6.7%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal;"><i> </i><i>(-0.3)<br /></i></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal;">TUV: 4.8%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal;"><i> </i><i>(-2.2)<br /></i></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal;">S-PBP: 2.2%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> </span><i style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="color: #444444;">(1.2)<br /></span></i><span style="color: black; font-size: 14.85px; font-style: normal;">Oth: 5.9%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><i> (+0.9)</i></span></span></i></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 40.0%, Nationalist 37.3%)</i></span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div><i style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></span></i><i><span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></span></i></span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span>UUP: 11.7%<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>SDLP: 14.9%</i><br /><i>Oth: 3.2%</i><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)</i></span></span><br /></span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div><div style="font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)</span></span></span></i></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 400; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 400;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 30.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.3)</i></span></div><div>FF: 18.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.3)</i></span></div><div>FG: 22.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>GP: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.3)</i></span></div><div>LP: 4.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.3)</i></span></div><div>SD: 6.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+3.3)</i></span></div><div>S-PBP: 2.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.5% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.5)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 10.2% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.4)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhAmeF0zB-Qd43_QcSs1KomioJNa7319TFZgU9UERXOm1Fde8oTpcwKuL7Z4ycCW6R0E0elKritzj5VGMT6bXJjFqJ2L-oahezUYccK_1XFLAG0GzSq6sOOJDkcseObVHodTgJWVAlFNSo7MagIUhzYWop2Ovx-hM8YivumxCL_r6723bfRSD-UwdbC2Q" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhAmeF0zB-Qd43_QcSs1KomioJNa7319TFZgU9UERXOm1Fde8oTpcwKuL7Z4ycCW6R0E0elKritzj5VGMT6bXJjFqJ2L-oahezUYccK_1XFLAG0GzSq6sOOJDkcseObVHodTgJWVAlFNSo7MagIUhzYWop2Ovx-hM8YivumxCL_r6723bfRSD-UwdbC2Q=w276-h276" width="276" /></a></div><br /><br /></b></div></div></div></div></b></div></span></div></span></div></div><p></p></div></div><p style="text-align: center;"><span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div></div></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-62586182280804805742023-03-05T19:54:00.027+00:002023-03-22T13:18:49.725+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR FEBRUARY 2023<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcyiIWlgEFiK05kuCOSr8q4A_6QVkR9bwCI_4ngfYRO5XXnbEJHunMoCroH-BrSigUbdBzF6vS59cgf85fkT2hKh8ZaYdN_-kpLQBDtjajSUDHGVRGr1AdQ5Men0l1c8ZZFcYs0k_PJ1KEdMk0A9DoBwAnewuFNBoG4XpmTbdCCAcS3sY1dEFTgZ1GyQ/s234/BLA.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcyiIWlgEFiK05kuCOSr8q4A_6QVkR9bwCI_4ngfYRO5XXnbEJHunMoCroH-BrSigUbdBzF6vS59cgf85fkT2hKh8ZaYdN_-kpLQBDtjajSUDHGVRGr1AdQ5Men0l1c8ZZFcYs0k_PJ1KEdMk0A9DoBwAnewuFNBoG4XpmTbdCCAcS3sY1dEFTgZ1GyQ/s234/BLA.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj059mG66i2h2jaButge6V8ebWoLSyAf3LHlwymq4OyITp5opTs4oYFVcMwUCTr2DOmzdKrk1Hx-_JD0uHUAApw73a_F2xDBds98UXW9u3p6YG76Hq5fe0ej7hJJ7hS9NBfAiJt5gQ43hElNmtxokRKXT1z8QeSb9r8rf--QizxxCJ8tbk3Otx6G4TlSQ/s234/BLA.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="234" data-original-width="201" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj059mG66i2h2jaButge6V8ebWoLSyAf3LHlwymq4OyITp5opTs4oYFVcMwUCTr2DOmzdKrk1Hx-_JD0uHUAApw73a_F2xDBds98UXW9u3p6YG76Hq5fe0ej7hJJ7hS9NBfAiJt5gQ43hElNmtxokRKXT1z8QeSb9r8rf--QizxxCJ8tbk3Otx6G4TlSQ/s1600/BLA.png" width="201" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtuXR5hNtujAW7GmxhgcgR9gdIQ05EagZAj0oPLTidFtVut_W_4CLGf9a61aqc8KVSKQmdfwnmb2LHcUlo5vyydLcIoaV5He7DoygsTbZGdeZb-srxg4fmpVTCHcsY3XBywnb5pQ5GvHKyNV9olIxdkut-eIBCykKDaFTFnD4ca8qxLHqFFY19tygtvQ/s236/BLA2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="236" data-original-width="208" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtuXR5hNtujAW7GmxhgcgR9gdIQ05EagZAj0oPLTidFtVut_W_4CLGf9a61aqc8KVSKQmdfwnmb2LHcUlo5vyydLcIoaV5He7DoygsTbZGdeZb-srxg4fmpVTCHcsY3XBywnb5pQ5GvHKyNV9olIxdkut-eIBCykKDaFTFnD4ca8qxLHqFFY19tygtvQ/s1600/BLA2.png" width="208" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFVjb4yftT1drrL49rWToVTZqx3zzLLaOwm3PGSZBUltngDXr1tRjdmyDpfskpOzqAorZWiFdrOL08KPsU3ts5DKXcMksj1ra-Fn2yn_omuclVSx986RPmnLnTbMesjTy9fuXRnG0Yrlfw3xu74ZktMGlgsc8rU5zr7sOOVWsewVOZX53ch6D-cnJG3w" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhm_EPNLMxQDn2xUGocVr_10x1Gls-OZhZWGYPIIeO0izhW3_mjW8k2CpJ9ZJPnyTQXPpS4Ozz1Ll6x4zBHXoebkZ8DKuDJbdSghzwu_PIqWtwzdR7y4rnVIpdUHa-kjvhhIHFGfriVQECJafHMBputX1nQRCJE7bqQyJlfyYsggMMDR7RB9ZyBl9wjw" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> <b>FEBRUARY</b></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">there were 31 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. Polling average was<i> </i><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(figures in brackets show movement from last month)</span><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-style: normal;"> 25.9% </span><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)</span></i></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 47.3% </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.2)</span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 9.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.3)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 5.1% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.1) <br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 6.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.1)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 6.8% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.1)<br /></i></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for October:- 21.39% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.32)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 21-31%, Labour between 42</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">-51%</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 7</span></i><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">-11%</span></i>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 31 polls and breached 50% three times and on one occasion showed a 29% lead <span style="color: #444444;"><i>( PeoplePolling, 08-09 Feb)</i></span>. Labour led in every poll with leads of between 14%-29%.<br /><br />If a General Election were conducted on these <b>FEBRUARY</b> figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L483, C88, SNP42, LD15, PC2 G1, NI18, Speaker<b> </b>1 with Labour having a majority of 316.<br /><br />The 'Polldrums' continue, with - at national level, only marginal movement detected, all well within the +/-2% margin of error. Of note is that due to the system we use - single member constituencies on a First-Past-The-Post basis, even a marginal shift of less than one half of 1% creates quite dramatic changes in the result and readers should compare last month's seat prediction to this month's as a stark example.<br /><br />Rishi Sunak appears to have removed one headache - the Northern Ireland Potocol with it's suggested amendments 'The Windsor Framework'. The initial offer of Labour to support the deal in order to get it Parliamentary approval is probably not required as enough Tory MPs now support this to give it a comfortable majority. But that should be tempered with the fact that this is a treaty anyway and as such isn't actually any of Parliament's business. Parliament is just asked whether it approves or not and cannot actually stop </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">government doing whatever it wants to treaties.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> The DUP remain an obstacle, however they are in no position to collapse the NI Assembly as on current predictions they and their allies the TUV will lose seats in the unionist bloc to their rivals the UUP. Even the 'big beast' Boris says that although he cannot support the Framework, he will not vote against it either. A note of caution however, is that much of this relies on goodwill by both sides - the UK & the EU and if one side or the other gets obstinate over something, the whole thing will collapse again. The only other real event of note is that Sturgeon has resigned in Scotland <i><span style="color: #444444;">(she was actually in the position of jump or be pushed after a series of catastrophic political decisions and growing hostility towards her support of lockdown).<br /><br /></span></i></span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Comparisons</u></b></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: </span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(256 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br />Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2022 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%<br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2023 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(60 polls)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 26.0%, Lab 47.2%, LDem 9.0%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 6.0%, Oth 6.8%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2023: 21.23%</span></div></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></p><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Polling figures for Feb <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(31 polls)</i></span><br /></span><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 25.9%, Lab 47.3%, LDem 9.1%, Grn 5.1%, Rfm 6.0%, Oth 6.8%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con: 21.39%</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br /><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div><div style="clear: both;"><br /><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">A month dominated by the unexpected resignation of Nicola Sturgeon after a series of catastrophic political decisions including </span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;">(but not exclusively)</span></i><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"> the on-going scandal of funding and contracts for the new ferries to the outlying islands, growing hostility towards the covid lockdown amongst Scottish voters, huge hostility to her 'flagship' Gender Recognition Bill, even amongst SNP members and SNP voters with it described as a 'perverts charter' in the Scottish press, mysterious loans to the SNP and 'missing' donations to the indyRef campaign fund all overseen and signed-off by the SNP's CEO Peter Murrell <i>(who happens just by chance to be her husband)</i> and several other things. There are three candidates for her replacement as Party Leader </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">- Kate Forbes</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #666666;"> (a christian evangelist opposed to gay marriage, pre-marital sex and the entire scottish gender law)</span></i><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;">, </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">Humza Yousaf</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"> </span><i style="color: #666666; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">(who absented himself from voting for gay marriage following pressure from Scottish Islamic groups & mosques) </i><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">and Ash Regan</span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="color: #666666;"> </span><i style="color: #666666; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">(also opposed to Sturgeon's gender recognition law). </i><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">As it stands, Kate Forbes will romp it, but whoever wins, Sturgeon's legacy - the Gender Recognition Act (Scotland) is heading straight for the bin. Quite what the impact of such an overtly religious leader as Kate Forbes will be on a Home Nation nearly as divided on religion as Northern Ireland, remains to be seen.</span><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4wqiZNPzd5u38p0rDi5bdJ5pjYFND0U-WNA_GpIzjjIxxt8-dUgEIm9dR2q2fJ5bCBc2MNDNfDOI9ly7N4yedJr2NiWCZF5l_V9meSz_z0Kwed32R_p08CwS1Dd2HCiN6fOxUFqDFzRY0k3EUZFHbANLERO1vjzV6IzHXKEMt80Zr-df_iIPmmTczA/s1200/snp.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir4wqiZNPzd5u38p0rDi5bdJ5pjYFND0U-WNA_GpIzjjIxxt8-dUgEIm9dR2q2fJ5bCBc2MNDNfDOI9ly7N4yedJr2NiWCZF5l_V9meSz_z0Kwed32R_p08CwS1Dd2HCiN6fOxUFqDFzRY0k3EUZFHbANLERO1vjzV6IzHXKEMt80Zr-df_iIPmmTczA/w465-h262/snp.jpg" width="465" /></a> </div><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">There were five Westminster polls released during the month </span><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span>SNP: 40.6% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-5.1)<br /></span></i><span>SCon: 17.4% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.1)<br /></span></i><span>SLab: 31.0% </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+3.0)<br /></i></span><span>SLD: 6.0% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i><span>Oth: 5.0% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)</span></i></div><div style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">There were five Holyrood polls released during the month <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 42.0/33.6%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-3.0/+0.6)</span></i><br />SCon: 17.2/17.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.7/+0.7)</span></i><br />Lab: 28.8/26.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.8/+1.3)</span></i><br />SLD: 7.8/7.6%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (-0.2/-0.9)</i></span><br />SGP: 3.5/10.8%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (+3.5/-1.2)</span></i><br />Oth: 0.7/4.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.8/+0.6)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were seven IndyRef polls released during the month </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 41.4% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-6.1)</span></i>, No: 47.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.8)</span></i> DK: 11.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+4.3)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 47.7%, No: 52.3%)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i><br /><i><span style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)<br />Yes: 44.7%<br />No: 55.3% </span></i></span></div></div></div></div></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There two Westminster poll released during the month.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> <span> </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-<br /></span></i><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Lab: 51.0% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i><span>Con: 19.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.5</span></i></span><i><span style="color: #444444;">)<br /></span></i><span>PC: 13.0% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i><span>LDem: 4.5% </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5)<br /></span></i><span>Rfm 8.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.5)<br /></span></i>Grn: 3%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1)<br /></span></i></span></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>Oth 0.5%.<i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.5)</span></i></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">There was one Senedd opinion poll released during the month.</span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> </span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: black;">(</span><span style="color: black;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></span></i></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Lab 43/39% </span>(-1.0/+1.0)<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Con 18/18%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (+1.0/+2.0)<br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Plaid 20/20%</span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #666666;"> (nc/-3.0)</span><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">LDem 4/5% </span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.0/+1.0)</span><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Grn: 4/5% </span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.0/nc)</span><br /></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Rfm 9/6%</span><span><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (+2.0/+2.0)<br /></span>AWA -/6% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-/-2.0)</span></i><br />UKIP -/0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-/-2.0)</span></i></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span></span></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Oth 7/1% </span><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;">(-2.0/-1.0)</span></span></span></span></span><p></p></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-style: italic;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one IndyRef poll released during the month as follows <span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></span></span></div><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></span></span></div></div><div style="background-color: white; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 18% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-4.0)</span></i>, No: 55% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc), </span></i>DK: 27% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+4.3)<br /></i></span></span></span></span><div style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 25%, No: 75%)</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></span></i></span></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">Lab: 40.9%</span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 36.1%</span></span></i></span></span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">PC: 9.9%</span></span></i></span></span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 6.0%</span></span></i></span></span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.0%</span></span></i></span></span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">BXP: 5.4%</span></span></i></span></span></i><br /><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth: 0.7%</span></span></i></span></span></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i></i><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%</span></span></i></i></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></i></i><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div></div><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;">(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: arial; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;"><br /></span><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">NORTHERN IRELAND</span><br /><br /></b></b><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, is zombified and is only not dissolved because of Westminster and Whitehall's total failure to accept reality. The current dead-lock remains, with DUP's steadfast opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (which effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market despite it being an integral element of the UK). </span>The DUP will not accept the Protocol and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped and while the DUP is the largest Unionist party that is all there is to it.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">That position will not change no matter what anyone in London stupidly deludes themself into thinking to the contrary.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though. For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again. <br /></span></div></span></div></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br />There has been some movement over the Protocol by the EU - largely at the insistance of the government of the Republic in Dublin on the EU's side who are now also suffering as a result of it. This has resulted in an agreed amendment to it - 'The Windsor Framework', which looks like it will be supported by all the NI parties with the exception of the DUP & TUV, although they are both split over the issue and Sinn Fein really only support it to spite the DUP & TUV. The Framework will be implemented of that there is no doubt. Whether DUP/TUV accept that and allow the Assembly to sit is a different matter.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during Feb.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Assembly polls released during Feb. </span></p><div><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></span></i></span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">UUP: 11.7%<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">SDLP: 14.9%<br />Oth: 3.2%<br /></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="color: black; font-style: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 400; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 400;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were four polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 32.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.0)</i></span></div><div>FF: 19.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.5)</i></span></div><div>FG: 22.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.3)</i></span></div><div>GP: 4.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>LP: 4.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.6)</i></span></div><div>SD: 3.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.7)</i></span></div><div>S-PBP: 2.3% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.7) </span></i></div><div>AÚ: 3.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 9.8% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.1)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth/Ind: 13.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;"><br /></b></div></div></div></div></b></div></span></div></i></div></div><p style="text-align: left;"></p></div></div><p style="text-align: center;"><span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: black; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: normal; text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx9MoxIgJpuN5ufQklcH6dM3C-ixsDf6LUoWeioWpaVP8d5SAK-RhSJHiMTbMj3BpQAsb-COZ0TY_Bfho8QTgrJffQsx_KbKV0Cr9v9uxrFg10KlGky0S4oSXlYPvrHYLQbvi3V-wNpGgXCUpQIR3R650dE5JvAn7oPsnoMEa3eR3Rvwe0QHnU3SeEGg/s608/TELEMMGLPICT000327069828_1_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="608" data-original-width="608" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgx9MoxIgJpuN5ufQklcH6dM3C-ixsDf6LUoWeioWpaVP8d5SAK-RhSJHiMTbMj3BpQAsb-COZ0TY_Bfho8QTgrJffQsx_KbKV0Cr9v9uxrFg10KlGky0S4oSXlYPvrHYLQbvi3V-wNpGgXCUpQIR3R650dE5JvAn7oPsnoMEa3eR3Rvwe0QHnU3SeEGg/s320/TELEMMGLPICT000327069828_1_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.webp" width="320" /></a></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: black; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: normal; text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span><b style="background-color: #fcff01; color: red; font-size: large; font-style: italic;">COMING NEXT MONTH!!</b><br /><br /><b style="background-color: white;">The Lockdown Files</b><span style="background-color: white;"> - How a professional confidence trickster sold a totally unnecessary lockdown to 66 million island residents, ignoring and overruling even Whitty and Vallance , somehow managing to get the pair of them to publicly go along with something they fundementally disageed with and destroying an entire economy in the process with just a stroke of a pen and a dodgey graph, conned a Chancellor in to bunging in £440bn AND got nearly all 66 million residents (including me) to think it was a bloody good idea.</span><br /><div style="background-color: white; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></div></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjD491d0qTyFY9CTCf-HY2nQwpG6igyRGeIiMSHIzc11V-yiP2nCIT1H2itWgohf0uiRB0kmZ3OGr4kZM0DkBftmuycRxsb5vY9OcbdVDtiDVp1j6GGvWEnH7yNGbcQPZiOFpG674g536XnGbb7tdEY6D8ft1EpFJ0yuNxJug7uNywTHZxeU9-TrXpwzA/s508/matt.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="471" data-original-width="508" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjD491d0qTyFY9CTCf-HY2nQwpG6igyRGeIiMSHIzc11V-yiP2nCIT1H2itWgohf0uiRB0kmZ3OGr4kZM0DkBftmuycRxsb5vY9OcbdVDtiDVp1j6GGvWEnH7yNGbcQPZiOFpG674g536XnGbb7tdEY6D8ft1EpFJ0yuNxJug7uNywTHZxeU9-TrXpwzA/w224-h208/matt.png" width="224" /></a></span></span></span></span></div><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: black; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-style: normal; text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div><p></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"></p><p style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><i></i></p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><div><i style="color: #444444;"><br /></i></div></span></div></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5087134625261612963.post-85598126701250544382023-02-03T20:49:00.012+00:002023-02-05T15:50:03.830+00:00OPINION POLLING FOR JANUARY 2023<p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQe_3V2idSvb9p5pghuZO0B9rKeeakTnM2azQHWLNOtHiM6EM-glx5r1niN67YLsFOWNR7FaEslWPnoS-b8kN3AYZ3nJSckHOP7BA_JOtAv6RuWCT42GJ-g-eoSiz3gQk0c9fMpKiJzlzM5Q-x8Nf82vrBYInzDFkaf8QhCLDeYzoet3qLLqhCdjFgCw" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjQe_3V2idSvb9p5pghuZO0B9rKeeakTnM2azQHWLNOtHiM6EM-glx5r1niN67YLsFOWNR7FaEslWPnoS-b8kN3AYZ3nJSckHOP7BA_JOtAv6RuWCT42GJ-g-eoSiz3gQk0c9fMpKiJzlzM5Q-x8Nf82vrBYInzDFkaf8QhCLDeYzoet3qLLqhCdjFgCw" style="background-color: white; font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgEV---xt2lwRKfomEDCGVc5DBcVfBYAFGJmRs0hYSHEMziGPeerrlTYmzH6ravGhhNNUkjSjoeubAqFtpAjT23ticqkCZFpqKypxBbyUlPsf-k1Yd4mohVXsXyKrL2T9-mpguxAnUVYy0-eOT2vk3_UY0LKLLmrG4I5XOM78eTHc9DeOjCrRzEuqKlpA" style="margin-left: 1em; 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font-family: arial; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="23" data-original-width="322" height="23" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhhm_EPNLMxQDn2xUGocVr_10x1Gls-OZhZWGYPIIeO0izhW3_mjW8k2CpJ9ZJPnyTQXPpS4Ozz1Ll6x4zBHXoebkZ8DKuDJbdSghzwu_PIqWtwzdR7y4rnVIpdUHa-kjvhhIHFGfriVQECJafHMBputX1nQRCJE7bqQyJlfyYsggMMDR7RB9ZyBl9wjw" width="320" /></a></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif" style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Across</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> <b>JANUARY</b></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">there were 29 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies. <span><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">Polling average was </span><span><i style="color: #444444; font-style: normal;">(figures in brackets ahow movement from last month)</i><i><span style="color: #444444;">:-</span></i></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Con</span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> 26.1% </span><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.5)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Lab 47.1% </span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.6<span>)</span></span></i><br /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">LDem 8.8% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+0.1)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Grn 5.2% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc) <br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Rfm 5.9% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-0.2)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Oth 6.9% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.1)<br /></i></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Ave Lab lead over Con for October:- 21.07% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.31)<br /></span></i></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"><br /></span></i></span></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">The Tories swung between 22-31%, Labour between 45</span></i></span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">-51%</span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;"> and the LDems between 7</span></i></span><i style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-style: normal;">-12%</span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><span>. Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 29 polls and breached 50% four times and on one occasion showed a 27% lead </span><span style="color: #444444;"><i>( PeoplePolling, 11 Jan)</i></span><span style="color: black;">. Labour led in every poll </span><span style="color: black;">with leads of between 14%-27%. Really the electorate are in 'polldrums' and the oly thing of any note is that Reform continue to out-poll the Greens.<br /><br /><span style="color: black;">If a General Election were conducted on these <b>JANUARY</b></span><span style="color: black;"> figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of L442, C116, SNP53, LD16, PC3, G1, NI18, Speaker</span><b> </b><span>1 with Labour having a majority of 234.</span></span></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: black;"><span><br /></span></span></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span>Polls remain fairly static which will give succour to both parties and equally also cause frustration as the political future of the country is now largely dictated by domestic banana skins yet to appear and international events over which we have no control as opposed to actual political activity. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span>The resignation of Zahawi for 'Technical Breaches' <i><span style="color: #444444;">(management speak for errors by underlings for which you as overall boss are ultimately responsible even if you had no knowledge</span>)</i> appears to have made no impact at all on the general picture. Zahawi in reality had to go as his presence was a major distraction - the press were paying more attention to him than to the government, making it difficult for the government to get it's policy message across to the electorate at large and it's never good for a Minister to be attracting more media attention than the government are.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span><br />Next to be forced by the media to resign will be Dominic Raab - who is being accused of bullying a total of 40 Civil Sevants although only 24 of the claims are substantiated <i><span style="color: #444444;">(by other civill servants also making accusations)</span></i>. The most serious and heinous accusations <i><span style="color: #444444;">(firing squad stuff)</span></i> centre on Raab accused of throwing a cherry tomato at an office wall on one occasion. This is a politically-inspired hatchet job pure and simple, by a Civil Service which now publicly says if it disagrees with government policy then it's staff don't have to do it and that Ministers have no right to shout at, order, or criticise civil servants<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (people will recall the fiasco where a senior civil servant scuppered Patel because she shouted at him in front of others. He was awarded an early retirement on stress grounds on a full pension, disability pension and a six figure compensation sum for 'emotional distress and humiliation'. My heart pumps purple piss for him).</span></i> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Quite how a dweeb like Raab 'bullied' 40 civil servants almost simultaneosly - allegedly causing some to vomit, lock themselves in toilets and burst into tears at the thought of a meeting when most of them work from home remains one of life's great mysteries. And quite why the civil service recruits so many obviously weak and incapable people is beyond a joke. As one senior 'traditionalist' Civil Servant who believes their role is to serve the government of the day said in an anonymous interview to the BBC, "The Civil Service has become dangerously politicised". </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">Even Gina Millar of 'Remain' fame has joined the fray claiming she witnessed Raab bullying a member of his staff after a pre-referendum Radio 4 debate in 2016 in which she says he said </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">"go and get me a fucking car" at an office 'runner'.</span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> There is a lot of truth in the old adage that </span><span style="color: #181818; font-family: arial;">“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">We have had it relatively good for three decades. We have a lot of weak people as a result - and it shows.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span>Strikes remain on-going, although away from the headlines and behind the scenes all are not that far off being settled for significantly less than the headline pay demands and most of the on-going talks - which are taking place despite everyone involved saying they aren't, are now in the main focused on work practices and contractural terms and conditions. Public support - and indeed support amongst the striking workforces themselves, is slowly slipping away - faster than the unions like but slower than the government and employers would like. Some strikers have now lost more in pay due to strikes than two years worth of the rise they are fighting for would have yielded.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span><br /></span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span>Economically, we now appear to have turned the corner with inflation now forecast to fall faster than expected, interest rates to start coming back down later in the year, global energy price falls shortly to start filtering through to the consumer <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(and indeed petrol/diesel has already fallen over the past few months)</i></span> and the much forecast 'severe recession' now going to be very shallow and very short, - if it happens at all. There is even a growing belief that the proposed hike in Corporation Tax <i><span style="color: #444444;">(from 19% to 25%)</span></i> expected to be confirmed in this years budget, will either be reduced or scrapped altogether to give business more available funds for investment and expansion.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">There was a major Brexit poll during the month - one of the largest conducted for several years, consisting of specific direct questions as opposed to being 'loaded' to get a pre-ordained answer, carried out by the polling company BMG. It essentially boiled down to Leave 49.5%, Remain 50.5% - which is basically 50/50, just as the refrendum basically was and just as every proper in-depth sampling has been ever since. Even Gina Millar </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(second mention n this page for the harridan)</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> has abandoned the Rejoin campaign </span><i style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">(along with Lord Adonis last month)</span></i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"> saying forget about it for a generation.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">The 'Ghost Of Boris' continues to haunt the corridors of power in the Tory party and in Westmnster as a whole. A 'PeoplePolling' survey of the general electorate found that in a straight choice, 40.3% support the return of Boris and 59.7% oppose it. This compares very closely with the actual 2019 General Election result, in which 43.6% voted Tory while 56.4% voted for other parties. Research has shown that a return of Boris would see an immedaite 5% jump in tory support.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><u>Comparisons</u></b></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">General Election 12 Dec 2019: </span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2021 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(256 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%<br />Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for 2022 <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(330 polls)</i></span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%</span></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;"><span></span></span></p><div style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling figures for Jan <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(29 polls)</i></span><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Con 26.1%, Lab 47.1%, LDem 8.8%, Grn 5.2%, Rfm 5.9%, Oth 6.9%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif">Lab lead over Con: 21.07%</span><br /><p style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><br /><div style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b>SCOTLAND</b></u></span></div><div style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><u><br /></u></b>There were no Westminster polls released during the month.</div><p></p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: arial; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: 700; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There were two Holyrood polls released during Jan <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SNP: 45.0/33.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-1.3/-5.3)</span></i><br />SCon: 16.5/16.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.5/+1.5)</span></i><br />SLab: 28.0/25.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+2.3/+2.5)</span></i><br />SLD: 8.0/8.5%<span style="color: #444444;"><i> (+0.7/+1.2)</i></span><br />SGP: 0.0/12.0%<i><span style="color: #444444;"> (-3.0/-0.3)</span></i><br />Oth: 2.5/5.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.9/+1.6)</span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div></span><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: 700;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There were two IndyRef polls released during the month as follows </span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: arial;">(</span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></div></span><span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes: 47.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)</span></i>, No: 45.5% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+1.9)</span></i> DK: 7.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.6)</i></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;">(Yes: 51.1%, No: 48.9%)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 45.0%<br />SCon: 25.1%<br />SLab: 18.6%<br />SLDem: 9.5%<br />Oth: 1.8%).<br /></i><br /><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;">(Holyrood Election 2022)<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i style="color: #444444;">SNP: 47.7/40.3%<br />SCon: 21.9/23.5%<br />SLab: 21.6/17.9%<br />SLD: 6.9/5.1%<br />SGP: 1.3/8.1%<br />Oth: 0.6/3.4%).<br /></i></span><br /><i><span style="color: #444444;">(IndyRef 2014)<br />Yes: 44.7%<br />No: 55.3% </span></i><br /><br /></span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-weight: 400;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></div><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><u style="font-weight: bold;">WALES</u></div><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There no Westminster poll released during the month.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p></p><p></p><p><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;">There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month.</span></span></i></p><p><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-style: normal;"><br /><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(General Election 2019)<br /></span></span></i><i style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 40.9%<br />Con: 36.1%<br />PC: 9.9%<br />LDem: 6.0%<br />Grn: 1.0%<br />BXP: 5.4%<br />Oth: 0.7%)</span></span></i></span></span></i></p><p style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: center;"><i></i></p><div style="text-align: left;"><i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Senedd Election 2021)<br /></span></span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lab: 39.9/36.2%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Con: 26.1/25.1%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Plaid: 20.3/20.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">LDem: 4.9/4.3%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Grn: 1.6/3.6%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">AWA*: 1.5/3.7%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Ref: 1.5/1.1%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UKIP: 0.8/1.6%<br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">Propel: 0.6/0.9%</span></span></i></i></div><i><div style="text-align: left;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)</span></span></i></div></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="text-align: left;"><i style="color: #444444;"><br />(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026. Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists. The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats. Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win. Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives. The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives.)</i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="color: #444444;"><br /></i></div></span><b><div style="text-align: center;"><b>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div></b><p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;">NORTHERN IRELAND</b></b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><b style="font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><b style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></b></b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Northern Ireland Assembly remains in deadlock, is zombified and is only not dissolved because of Westmisnter and Whitehall's total failure to accept reality. The current dead-lock remains, with DUP's steadfast opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic;"> (which effectively keeps Northern Ireland in the EU Single Market despite it being an integral element of the UK). </span>The DUP will not accept the Protocol and will not allow the Assembly to sit until AFTER it is scrapped and while the DUP is the largest Unionist party that is all there is to it.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">That position will not change no matter what anyone in London stupidly deludes themself into thinking contrary.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> Paralysis in the Assembly is nothing new though. For example from 2017 it didn't sit for over 1,000 days when Sinn Fein boycotted it and only resumed just as Covid was about to hit, closing it again. <br /><br />There has been some movement over the Protocol by the EU - largely at the insistance of the government of the Republic in Dublin who are now also suffering as a result of it. However, the DUP in the North along with the wider unionist community are not interested in a revised Protocol, only it's scrapping - and to further make things difficult Sinn Fein in the north are opposed to any changes to it, whereas their sister - Sinn Fein in the south, has a different position. An election in the North won't actually solve anything, rather it will just confirm that making decisions regarding the North, without the overwhelming support of both communities, is a remarkably stupid thing to do. Even Starmer - never one to miss an opportunity to pretend he's a statesmen, after his one attempt with the parties in the North, has abandoned any further involvement and is probably praying that it's sorted before the next UK election or it will automatically then become his problem - and he clearly wants nothing to do with it.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were no Westmister polls released during Jan.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There was one Assembly poll released during Jan. <span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i><br /><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 31%<span style="color: #444444;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(-1.0)<br /></span></i></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 25%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> <span style="color: #444444;">(-2.0)<br /></span></i></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">APNI: 15%</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><i> <span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">UUP: 10%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">SDLP:</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> 7%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i> </i><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">TUV: 7%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i> </i><span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+2.0)<br /></i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">S-PBP: 1%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"> </span><i><span style="color: #444444;">(nc)<br /></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;">Oth: 5%</span><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial; font-style: italic;"><i> (+1.0)</i></span></span></p><div><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><br />(General Election 2019)<br /></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 22.8%<br /></span></span></i><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 30.6%<br />APNI: 16.8%<br /></span></span></i></span><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">UUP: 11.7%<br /></span></i><i style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;">SDLP: 14.9%<br />Oth: 3.2%<br /></span></i><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;">(Assembly Election 2022)<br /></span></i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><span style="color: #444444;"><span face="arial, sans-serif">SF: 29.0%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">DUP: 21.3%<br />APNI:</span><span face="arial, sans-serif"> 13.5%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">UUP: 11.2%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">SDLP: 9.1%, <br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">TUV: 7.6%<br /></span><span face="arial, sans-serif">S-PBP: 1.2%<br />Oth 7.1%</span></span></i></span></div></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</b></div></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: 700;"><u style="font-weight: 400;"><b><br /></b></u></span></div><div style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: 400; text-align: left;"><b style="font-family: arial;">REPUBLIC OF IRELAND</b></div></span></div><div style="text-align: start;"><div style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><p style="text-decoration-line: underline;"></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.</span></p><span style="font-family: arial;">There were three polls released during the month. </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;">(</span><i><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #444444;">figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-</span></i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #444444;"><i><br /></i></span></span><div style="font-family: arial;"><div>SF: 33.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(nc)</i></span></div><div>FF: 18.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-0.3)</i></span></div><div>FG: 21.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-1.3)</i></span></div><div>GP: 4.3% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.3)</i></span></div><div>LP: 3.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.7)</i></span></div><div>SD: 3.7% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+0.7)</i></span></div><div>S-PBP: 3.0% <i><span style="color: #444444;">(+<span>1.0) </span></span></i></div><div>AÚ: 2.0% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(-2.0)</i></span></div><div>Oth/Ind: 9.9% <span style="color: #444444;"><i>(+1.9)</i></span></div></div></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;"><div style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></div></span><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>(General Election 2020)</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SF: 24.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FF: 22.2%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>FG: 20.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>GP: 7.1%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>LP: 4.4%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>SD: 2.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>S-PBP: 2.6%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>AÚ: 1.9%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i>Oth: 13.5%</i></span></div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #444444; font-family: arial;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><div style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; text-align: center;"><b style="font-family: arial;">~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhw0o7hgRYHrLL-SplYqIbt70iEd9COFo6V8EbnovqMCDrk0viZgMPApH-Xw9SmaDbGzx-b4ckZOfEv9XZUNmsmmMS-nzgf22jY-BL4qalE7P0x1TQsTjexSiLTNrFZ1c68M_hek112maPSTnoJv-WYaH57GeYccbBBj_v5vJvmNxgN--x1q1Hom0K8KQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="720" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhw0o7hgRYHrLL-SplYqIbt70iEd9COFo6V8EbnovqMCDrk0viZgMPApH-Xw9SmaDbGzx-b4ckZOfEv9XZUNmsmmMS-nzgf22jY-BL4qalE7P0x1TQsTjexSiLTNrFZ1c68M_hek112maPSTnoJv-WYaH57GeYccbBBj_v5vJvmNxgN--x1q1Hom0K8KQ=w360-h360" width="360" /></a></div><br /><br /></b></div></div></div></div></div></span></span></div></div></div></div></span></div></div></span></div></div></div></span></span></div></div></div>An Eye On...http://www.blogger.com/profile/08811559231632281053noreply@blogger.com0